This article is part of our DFS MLB series.
Now that we have a little more than a month of baseball in the books, the data starts to formulate some trends that we can exploit. One of the things that DFS players look at is how a team hits against a left-handed pitcher or a right-handed pitcher. This is important for determining stacks in tournaments. But I like to take it a step further and analyze the L/R splits along with home/road. I have found strong data that can help in building stacks for tournaments.
Dodgers at Home vs. RHP
This is the best stack of the season so far. Now, a lot of this is tied to Cody Bellinger, who is injured, but still the data is very strong. Stack the Dodgers at home vs. a right handed pitcher! Right-handed pitchers have averaged just 6.4 points against the Dodgers at home. The average starting pitcher averages about 14 points.
In 12 starts, only two pitchers have scored at least 20 points, and five have been in the negative. Here are some of the top pitchers they have faced – Luis Castillo, Joe Musgrove, Zack Greinke, Chris Archer, Luke Weaver, Sonny Gray.
A's vs. LHP
The A's have faced 10 left-handed starting pitchers, who have averaged only 9.26 points per game. It has not mattered whether home or away for the A's. In the six home games, the pitchers averaged 7.8 points per game and on the road 11.4. You can skew to
Now that we have a little more than a month of baseball in the books, the data starts to formulate some trends that we can exploit. One of the things that DFS players look at is how a team hits against a left-handed pitcher or a right-handed pitcher. This is important for determining stacks in tournaments. But I like to take it a step further and analyze the L/R splits along with home/road. I have found strong data that can help in building stacks for tournaments.
Dodgers at Home vs. RHP
This is the best stack of the season so far. Now, a lot of this is tied to Cody Bellinger, who is injured, but still the data is very strong. Stack the Dodgers at home vs. a right handed pitcher! Right-handed pitchers have averaged just 6.4 points against the Dodgers at home. The average starting pitcher averages about 14 points.
In 12 starts, only two pitchers have scored at least 20 points, and five have been in the negative. Here are some of the top pitchers they have faced – Luis Castillo, Joe Musgrove, Zack Greinke, Chris Archer, Luke Weaver, Sonny Gray.
A's vs. LHP
The A's have faced 10 left-handed starting pitchers, who have averaged only 9.26 points per game. It has not mattered whether home or away for the A's. In the six home games, the pitchers averaged 7.8 points per game and on the road 11.4. You can skew to the A's at home, but still these are significant trends as they have a lot of strong right-handed hitters in their lineup.
Cardinals at Home
Only one pitcher has done anything against the Cardinals in St. Louis – Anthony DeSclafani. He scored 24.7 points, but every other pitcher was less than 15 points. They have beat up on Kenta Maeda, Noah Syndergaard, Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Chris Paddack, Sonny Gray and Matt Strahm. The best part is the Cardinals have not been heavy favorites as home, so you can get them under-owned.
Diamondbacks vs. LHP
This used to be an auto play when Paul Goldschmidt was on the DBacks, but he is now in St. Louis. The Diamondbacks lineup is underrated and Christian Walker has filled in for Goldy quite nicely. Lefty pitchers have averaged just 9.82 points in 13 games against the Diamondbacks. Only two of the 13 have gone for more than 18 points. Their team total was only 4.2 in the 13 games, so you can stack the Dbacks at lower ownership as well.
Angels at Home vs. RHP
I have to admit this one shocked me. I'm not one to think of the Angels offense as a juggernaut. But this is a 13-game sample in which right-handed pitchers have only averaged 6.46 points against the Angels at L.A. Only one pitcher (Domingo German) has posted more than 18 points against them. In eight of the 11 starts, the pitcher scored less than 10 points. This is another great stacking opportunity because the Angels are never huge favorites at home. I love the Angels even more once Shohei Ohtani returns.
Cubs on the Road vs. RHP
In 12 starts, right-handed pitchers at home have only averaged 8.45 points against the Cubs. No pitcher has posted more than 18 points. Half the time, the Cubs are a slight underdog, so you can get them at ownership a little lower than normal.
Rangers vs. RHP
You would not think the Rangers would lead the majors in runs scored, but they do. Now granted they had some monster games against the Mariners that helped inflate the total, but 5.9 runs per game overall and 6.2 runs per game at home is impressive.
The numbers are slightly better when the Rangers are on the road versus their hitter-friendly home park. In nine home starts, right-handed pitchers have only averaged 9.03 points per game and on the road (at Texas), they have averaged 9.92, which is about 10 percent higher but still much lower than the 14-point average.
Rays on the Road vs. RHP
This makes sense because the Rays play in an extreme pitchers' park, so on the road it is a park bump most of the time. Also, they have a lot of strong left-handed hitters. Right-handed pitchers at home only average 7.43 points against the Rays with five starts in the negative. Two of those starts were from Glenn Sparkman (29.35) and Dylan Bundy (25.5). Take out those and the total drops to 3.44 points per game!
Royals at Home vs. RHP
The Royals are not known for being an offensive juggernaut, and Kaufmann Stadium historically plays as a pitchers' park. But there is a trend developing in 13 games at Kansas City – right-handed pitchers average only 7.23 points per game against the Royals. There were three games of more than 24 points by Lucas Giolito, Matt Harvey and Charlie Morton. But the remaining 10 games saw six with negative points, including Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco.
