Collette Calls: Staff Aces

Collette Calls: Staff Aces

This article is part of our Collette Calls series.

Spencer Strider went first overall in at least one of the 228 RotoWire Online Championship drafts this past draft season, and we all know how that worked out. Strider wasn't the only early-round disappointment this year, with several early picks falling short due to injury or underperformance, but we all know how reactionary we are as fantasy managers. Any time one season plays out in such a manner, we tend to see a bit of overreaction theater the next draft season. It's probably a safe bet we will see few, if any, first round picks exercised on starting pitchers. We should start to get ahead of the game and begin to look at how the marketplace will shake out by first looking at what happened this year.

The table below shows all starting pitchers with an ADP below 100 in the 228 RotoWire Online Championship drafts last season and their current earned auction value in the 12-team format:

STARTER

Team

ADP

EAV

INJ?
Spencer Strider

ATL

5.4

$0.0

YES
Corbin Burnes

BAL

20.6

$17.7

NO
Zack Wheeler

PHI

24.5

$28.7

NO
Luis Castillo

SEA

30.2

$10.3

YES
George Kirby

SEA

35.5

$13.8

NO
Tyler Glasnow

LAD

36.3

$13.1

YES
Pablo Lopez

MIN

37.0

$14.4

NO
Kevin Gausman

TOR

39.7

$4.8

NO
Zac Gallen

ARZ

42.3

$5.2

YES
Tarik Skubal

DET

42.5

$32.2

NO
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

LAD

42.7

$1.1

YES
Logan Webb

SF

52.1

$8.8

NO
Max Fried

ATL

53.3

$5.2

YES
Freddy Peralta

MLW

54.0

$8.0

NO
Aaron Nola

PHI

Spencer Strider went first overall in at least one of the 228 RotoWire Online Championship drafts this past draft season, and we all know how that worked out. Strider wasn't the only early-round disappointment this year, with several early picks falling short due to injury or underperformance, but we all know how reactionary we are as fantasy managers. Any time one season plays out in such a manner, we tend to see a bit of overreaction theater the next draft season. It's probably a safe bet we will see few, if any, first round picks exercised on starting pitchers. We should start to get ahead of the game and begin to look at how the marketplace will shake out by first looking at what happened this year.

The table below shows all starting pitchers with an ADP below 100 in the 228 RotoWire Online Championship drafts last season and their current earned auction value in the 12-team format:

STARTER

Team

ADP

EAV

INJ?
Spencer Strider

ATL

5.4

$0.0

YES
Corbin Burnes

BAL

20.6

$17.7

NO
Zack Wheeler

PHI

24.5

$28.7

NO
Luis Castillo

SEA

30.2

$10.3

YES
George Kirby

SEA

35.5

$13.8

NO
Tyler Glasnow

LAD

36.3

$13.1

YES
Pablo Lopez

MIN

37.0

$14.4

NO
Kevin Gausman

TOR

39.7

$4.8

NO
Zac Gallen

ARZ

42.3

$5.2

YES
Tarik Skubal

DET

42.5

$32.2

NO
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

LAD

42.7

$1.1

YES
Logan Webb

SF

52.1

$8.8

NO
Max Fried

ATL

53.3

$5.2

YES
Freddy Peralta

MLW

54.0

$8.0

NO
Aaron Nola

PHI

56.8

$10.6

NO
Framber Valdez

HOU

57.9

$18.1

NO
Grayson Rodriguez

BAL

63.6

$5.0

YES
Logan Gilbert

SEA

65.7

$20.8

NO
Bobby Miller

LAD

66.3

-$24.9

YES
Blake Snell

SF

71.0

-$1.8

YES
Zach Eflin

BAL

75.9

$7.1

YES
Jesus Luzardo

MIA

79.6

-$13.0

YES
Cole Ragans

KC

79.7

$15.6

NO
Joe Ryan

MIN

87.5

$8.2

YES
Dylan Cease

SD

95.2

$18.2

NO
Justin Steele

CHC

96.7

$4.6

YES

13 of the 26 starters had at least one stint on the injured list this season, while 8 of the 26 failed to reach the 140-inning mark. This is not exactly what one would call a strong return on investment. Now, let's look at the top 26 pitchers by earned auction value this season. Pitchers with bolded EAV also appeared on the previous table:

Value

ADP

Player

Team

32.2

42.5

Tarik Skubal

DET

32.0

102.9

Chris Sale

ATL

28.7

24.5

Zack Wheeler

PHI

22.3

266.3

Seth Lugo

KC

20.8

65.7

Logan Gilbert

SEA

18.4

158.3

Shota Imanaga

CHC

18.2

95.2

Dylan Cease

SD

18.1

57.9

Framber Valdez

HOU

17.7

303.2

Jack Flaherty

LAD

17.7

20.6

Corbin Burnes

BAL

17.1

164.3

Bryce Miller

SEA

16.6

268.2

Paul Skenes

PIT

15.7

133.5

Sonny Gray

STL

15.6

79.7

Cole Ragans

KC

15.5

161.0

Jose Berrios

TOR

14.7

135.1

Hunter Greene

CIN

14.7

360.5

Ronel Blanco

HOU

14.4

37.0

Pablo Lopez

MIN

14.3

122.5

Bailey Ober

MIN

14.1

128.7

Michael King

SD

13.8

35.5

George Kirby

SEA

13.5

318.6

Sean Manaea

NYM

13.1

36.3

Tyler Glasnow

LAD

12.0

341.0

Luis Gil

NYY

11.2

110.8

Tanner Bibee

CLE

11.1

327.7

Reynaldo Lopez

ATL

Just 10 of the top 26 starters by ADP also made the top 26 list for earned auction value. To run it a step further, just 12 of the top 26 starters by ADP have a double-digit EAV this season, as Aaron Nola and Luis Castillo just missed making this list. 

Perhaps the lesson learned or the strategy to embrace with starting pitching is lean into the risk? Skubal and Sale are likely to take home their league's respective Cy Young Awards, and both could even take home the pitching triple crown as well. The two pitchers combined to work 183 innings in 2023, with Skubal on his way back from a repaired flexor tendon and Sale missing significant time with shoulder inflammation. Skubal looked fantastic once he eventually got healthy in the 2023 season, so the recency bias was freshly in mind as he went as high as 25 but shockingly as low as 70 in one of the 228 drafts. Sale was a different story since so many of us were left holding the bag with Sale in recent years, and he went as high as 68 and as low as 205 in the same set of drafts. Skubal has provided a return on what was invested plus a little bonus, while Sale has blown many fantasy managers (as well as hitters) away this season as the second-most valuable pitcher after going 43rd off the board in drafts last season. 

This is where I feel we may see some overreaction theater. Skubal was drafted according to how he pitched in 2023, but with a cleaner injury history, he likely would have gone a little higher. Sale was going in the seventh round, as fantasy managers hoped that his homer problems in the AL East would be resolved in a new location and that he would have one more good season in his 35-year old arm. However, there was just one other starting pitcher who earned at least $20 who went later than pick 100, and that was Seth Lugo. The scatterplot view below may help hammer home this point:

If your plan is to build around one solid source of value, your best plan is still to invest in someone early, but there is certainly a path forward by accumulating enough value in the later rounds. That said, let's briefly revisit the top earners of this season, because they will strongly influence the marketplace once drafting kicks off in earnest. I will reserve a deeper dive into these pitchers until the offseason, but for now will offer short quips about each:

PlayerProCon
Tarik SkubalUnreal since July 2023One season over 150 IP; workload jump
Chris SaleBack with a vengeanceOne season over 150 IP since 2018
Zack WheelerSteady Eddie statisticallyBoring; ceiling was 2021
Seth LugoHealthy as a horseCareer year at 34; workload spike already showing in late 24
Logan GilbertContinues to improveSeattle offense killed his EAV this season
Shota ImanagaSucceeded in first year, unlike many ex-NPB pitchers before himSophomore slump; homers
Dylan CeaseContract year, reduced walksHas thrown more pitches over last three years than any SP despite being 10th in IP
Framber ValdezRamped up grounders again & gets his winsEarly 2024 struggles happened & how does Houston retool its offense this winter?
Jack FlahertyBest he has looked post-pandemicCan he repeat it given his struggles to stay out of his own way previously?
Corbin BurnesHasn't missed a start in three yearsAll of this
Bryce MillerWinning double-digit games for Seattle34% jump in workload; see 2023 numbers after 2022 workload jump
Paul SkenesPoints at :all of this: He still pitches in Pittsburgh where margins remain slim; Could be 2025 version of Ragans or 2025 version of G. Rodriguez
Sonny GrayHealthier now than he was previously; new-found strikeout rateHas never had three consecutive seasons of 160+ IP of work
Cole RagansAll those strikeouts w/o even facing White Sox??!!Even if KC doesn't make postseason, Ragans has a 44.4% workload spike YoY; Could reach Gallen territory should KC push into October
Jose BerriosHas not missed a start since 2017He's won 16 games for a last-place team & indicators show how fortunate he was. Quantity versus Quality.
Hunter GreeneLooked fantastic until...Season ended with elbow soreness (assuming he doesn't pitch again)
Ronel BlancoA RKO-like career breakout out of nowhere at age 30Look left; try to find the next guy like this and don't bet on a repeat
Pablo LopezThree years of health and consistent if not boring numbersERA continues to be on the high end for a pitcher stingy with walks and tough to hit; Homers...
Bailey OberNice growth year statistically hidden by some blow-upsInconsistency; allowed 5+ ER in 5 starts including 17 ER in just 3.1 IP vs ATL & KC
Michael KingRoared as a first time full-time SPMassive workload jump only going to get higher in October
George Kirby'23 & '24 aren't as far apart statistically as it feelsWhat is Seattle going to do with its offense? They're wasting these pitchers.
Sean ManaeaOutstanding course correction after years of strugglesDoes Manaea exercise his player option and test waters where the extra pressures of new deal & new home come into play?
Tyler GlasnowHe finally broke the 120 IP plateau!He ended the season with elbow issues and we won't likely see him pitch until the spring
Luis GilAwesome rookie debut, fantasy-wiseThe walks; the high flyball rate in that park, and the indicators point to the risk
Tanner BibeeMostly validated 2023 hype2nd half dropoff & extreme TTO penalty
Reynaldo LopezSuccessful return to SP role after 4-year layoffAugust forearm inflammation & September shoulder inflammation 

All of this to say that I will be approaching the pitching market with more trepidation than in previous seasons. I have done rather well with my fantasy pitching in most leagues in recent years, but as it stands today, I am not certain how I plan to navigate these waters this winter given the risks associated with many of the top starting pitching performers this season. How about you?

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jason Collette
Jason has been helping fantasy owners since 1999, and here at Rotowire since 2011. You can hear Jason weekly on many of the Sirius/XM Fantasy channel offerings throughout the season as well as on the Sleeper and the Bust podcast every Sunday. A ten-time FSWA finalist, Jason won the FSWA's Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year award in 2013 and the Baseball Series of the Year award in 2018 for Collette Calls,and was the 2023 AL LABR champion. Jason manages his social media presence at https://linktr.ee/jasoncollette
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