This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Bets Today (April 26, 2024)
What a time in College Baseball. Week 11 starts the countdown to the final month of the season before conference tournaments start. This is about the time when we see what teams are made of. If you're a squad that's been slumping, catching fire right about now can propel your momentum into a big run to make some noise. On the flip side, if you struggle down the stretch, that can kill your chances. Most of the time, the teams that get hot around this time find themselves in Omaha.
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Mississippi State Bulldogs (+135) @ Vanderbilt Commodores (-175) | Total: N/A
This may not be one of the most talked about series of the weekend, but it's absolutely one of the most important. The winner will find themselves in a really good position to be in regional hosting territory (top 16 seeds host regionals), while the loser may need a lot of help the rest of the way. A pair of 10-8 teams (in SEC play) duke it out with a lot on the line.
If you followed me all season, you know I have been on Mississippi State since the preseason. A team that was dreadful in 2022 and 2023 has really turned the corner in 2024. If State can finish strong, I'd be surprised to see them on the outside of the top 16 bubble.
A big key to their turnaround has been the starting pitching. Khal Stephen, the Purdue transfer, has seen a rise in his draft stock after the year he's had as now a Friday night guy in the SEC. Sporting a 2.50 ERA (4th best among Power 5 starters), Stephen has a great 67K/14 BB ratio in 57.2 innings to go along with it. Riding a five consecutive quality start streak, Stephen has been even better on the road than at home.
Even after the Dawgs lost their Friday guy, Nate Dohm, early in the season, the rotation hasn't skipped a beat. Khal Stephen has not allowed an earned run in his last three starts (21.2 IP) against UGA, Ole Miss, and Auburn. He won't see the old Vandy lineup that consisted of Enrique Bradfield Jr, Spencer Jones, or Dom Keegan. But this one has been pretty solid.
The 'Dores have some pop, but aren't among one of the bigger power hitting clubs in the country - or even conference. Yet this squad can still hit (.297 average), and run the bases (75-88). Stephen will have to keep the VandyBoys off the bags in order to control the tempo of this game. Playing at a team that has been lights out at home this year (23-4), he needs to bring his A game.
Vandy will stick with Bryce Cunningham for game one, keeping their true Friday guy, Carter Holton, for Saturday. Cunningham is a flame thrower that's been solid this season, but beatable. He's living with a 4.67 ERA and 72 K/19 BB ratio in 52 innings of work. There's been a noticeable trend for Bryce Bryce Baby. Giving up 17 ER in his last three road starts, compared to just four ER in his last three home starts.
Like a lot of pitchers, they're much better at home. This Miss State lineup is good, but it's not one of the elites, they strive in situational hitting, so capitalizing with men on base is paramount. Even with a projected first-round stud like Dakota Jordan capable of putting one to the parking lot, there's a lot of swing and miss in this offense. If Cunningham can keep the walks to a minimum, it should put Vandy in a good spot.
State hasn't been great on the road this season, only 5-6 on the year. But this is a series that would go along with for their hosting chances. Their final four series are @ Vandy, vs. Alabama, @ Arkansas, vs. Mizzou. It's a good matchup for them with the pitching advantage. And getting a number I think is too big is definitely worth a hit. They've won six of Stephen's last eight starts. This is a big one.
Pick: Mississippi State ML +135
