This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks: Friday, March 22
That Arkansas ML was SWEATY, but it cashed. I hyped up Hagen Smith for a reason, and after a six shutty, 12-punch-out performance, you can see why. By the way, Big Hog Hagen is now up to 62 K's in only 29 innings this year. Average at best...
Friday's slate is a good one, but with so much to choose from I had a tough time deciding on my best play. Don't forget to check out my podcast, Breaking Bet, to see my analysis on the marquee matchups. And of course, my Twitter, for the real-time updates on everything I'm playing.
Baseball fans in NC are now able to dig into North Carolina betting promos with online sports betting available in the Tar Heel State. The Caesars Sportsbook North Carolina promo code gets new players $250 in bonus bets.
UCSB Gauchos (-175) @ Cal Poly Mustangs (+135)
The truth is this isn't my absolute best play, but it's up there. I'm hitting several parlays Friday, and a couple of the other straight plays like Duke and Vandy have been hammered hard, so the lines are not as good as before. I wanted to feature a team that hasn't really been talked about since Opening Day, and that's the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos.
The 12-5 Gauchos opened up the season in blazing fashion with a 20-8 W at the Campbell Camels. Unfortunately, they became impossible to back after that. They went on to drop the next two games against Campbell (losing the series), and a Friday night contest against Sacramento State. The drought was short-lived though, as they took that series against Sacramento. Then went on to hammer Oregon and sweep both UConn and Long Beach State the last two weekends. Currently, UCSB is on a nice 11-2 run.
A big reason why the Gauchos are on my radar, at least for series openers, is stud righty Matt Ager. Although he hasn't been pitching up to his usual production, Ager has been solid with his 3.86 ERA. The walks are a little high (16 BB in 25.2 IP) compared to only the 26 he had last year in 92.1 innings. Nonetheless, he falls into the category of "Friday Night Horse." And I almost always back the horse. The 'Chos have won four of his five outings this year, providing him with an outstanding average of 10.2 runs per game. Against a Cal Poly offense that has been brutal this year (notched over five runs only four times in a weekend series), this would be a promising development. Ager shoved against this team last May with seven shutout and eight K's.
Ager's counterpart though, has been far from a pushover. Projected starter, Jakob Wright, has definitely held his own thus far. Pitching to a 2.73 ERA, Wright has been able to help either win or keep his team in all but one start. He has struggled with the walks thus far (14 in 26.1 IP), so there's an avenue for UCSB's offense to exploit. It's been a relatively strong pitching staff (4.26 team ERA), so if Wright struggles and surrenders some runs early, it could be a big hill for Cal Poly to climb against Ager.
I don't think this one is necessarily a gimmie for the Gauchos, but it's a game I certainly expect them to win. It also wouldn't shock me to see them pull off their third consecutive sweep. The price is definitely off here, so the -175 should be closer to -200. It's Friday night kid, so we're riding with the horses. Giddy up!
Pick: UCSB ML -175
