This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks Today: Thursday, March 28
Baseball, baseball, and more baseball! That's what's on the slate for Thursday as the MLB presents Opening Day, while we enter the third week of conference play on the college side. You remember when you were a kid and you showed to a candy store like Attila the Hun ready to pillage that place? Well, it's kind of the same thing here except we're shopping at sportsbooks now. Johnny V is here to give you a taste.
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Best College Play: Parlay Florida State/NC State/Vanderbilt +150
Okay, the truth is this is one of my favorites. The problem is my best play has gotten steamed like the little engine that could and I don't want to make people have to lay -200 or bigger. It's a bummer because I was really looking forward to talking about it. Anyway, College Baseball is actually one of the few sports where a parlay can be plus-EV.
Florida State is hosting Louisville this weekend. The Cardinals actually gave a bit of trouble to Wake Forest despite losing the series 2-1. Louisville isn't a layup, but it's certainly a contest I see FSU taking in game one after imploding last weekend at Clemson, where they blew a lead of four or more runs in all three games. Cam Leiter has been great for the Seminoles this year, and after a rough go of it against Clemson, this is where I expect him to get back to business. FSU has had one of the best offenses in the country, so runs should be scored for them.
NC State had an unreal comeback win against Duke last Saturday. Trailing 8-2 in the bottom of the ninth, the Wolfpack roared back to hit a walk-off two-run tank against Charlie Beilenson, one of the best closers in the sport. NC State is a feisty bunch. Playing at home against Notre Dame is a good recipe to grab a Thursday W. It's likely Sam Highfill going, who was marvelous against Duke last Friday.
Lastly, we have the Vandy Boys. Things were looking good for the Commodores after making it to number three on the top 25 national rankings heading into last week, but it didn't last long. They were bombarded by a South Carolina team that was looking to rectify a bad series loss to Ole Miss the weekend prior. Getting swept should have Vandy ready to rumble against a brutal Mizzou team that has only won 10 games thus far. I'd imagine we see lefty Carter Holton, who has been terrific lately. Thanks to a luscious -445 ML price for the 'Dores, they are an anchor to this parlay.
I've been talking a lot on my podcast lately how wild the homefield advantage is in this sport, especially for the first game of a series. It's almost like in the NFL when a team gets about three points for being at home because it's been that significant in every conference. Only highlighting the SEC through two weeks as an example, home teams in a series are 11-3. And home teams in game one are 11-3. It's almost unbelievable. I haven't been hitting the home squads as hard as I should have, but I'm changing up the approach this week. All three are home teams, so let's see if we can grab a nice win to start week seven.
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Bonus MLB Player Props
- Wyatt Langford to record a HR (+650) 0.25u
- Wyatt Langford to record a double (+490) 0.25u
- Wyatt Langford to record a stolen base (+700) 0.25u
This is a big day for me. I've been watching almost every game of his college career waiting for this moment to come. It's the only time I'll ever be able to bet on Langford's first career MLB game, so I have to make it count.
By now you've seen what he did during Spring Training, so I'll spare you the details. We're getting good numbers on him to accomplish at least one of the three. He'll see Justin Steele, who was good last season. Steele was significantly worse on the road last year (3.66 ERA, nine homers) compared to being at home (2.65 ERA, five homers). He was roughed up a little in the spring, so while he tries to shake off the rust, I think he'll make a mistake or two to my AL MVP. This opportunity will only come around once, don't miss it.
