Closer Encounters: The Importance of a Good Bullpen

Closer Encounters: The Importance of a Good Bullpen

This article is part of our Closer Encounters series.

One of the statistics I like to monitor as the MLB trade deadline approaches is team bullpen ERA. Over the past three full seasons (2019, 2021 and 2022), I've noticed a correlation between playoff teams and their league ranking in this particular statistic.

Out of the 12 playoff teams from 2022, 11 had a bullpen ERA ranking in the top-half of the league during the regular season:

In 2021, all 10 playoff teams were in the top-half of the league for this stat, while eight of 10 fit the bill in 2019.

Every once in a while, a team overcomes their poor bullpen and still makes the playoffs, like the 2022 Phillies (4.24 bullpen ERA, ranked 23rd) and 2019 Nationals (5.68 ERA, ranked 29th). Both teams advanced to the World Series, with the Nationals winning the title with Sean Doolittle, Daniel Hudson and Fernando Rodney at the back-end of their pen.

Obviously, there are countless factors that impact a team's chances of making the playoffs, but managing an excellent bullpen is at or near the top of the list.

Let's take a look at current bullpen ERA rankings through late June:

Team Bullpen ERA

(through

One of the statistics I like to monitor as the MLB trade deadline approaches is team bullpen ERA. Over the past three full seasons (2019, 2021 and 2022), I've noticed a correlation between playoff teams and their league ranking in this particular statistic.

Out of the 12 playoff teams from 2022, 11 had a bullpen ERA ranking in the top-half of the league during the regular season:

In 2021, all 10 playoff teams were in the top-half of the league for this stat, while eight of 10 fit the bill in 2019.

Every once in a while, a team overcomes their poor bullpen and still makes the playoffs, like the 2022 Phillies (4.24 bullpen ERA, ranked 23rd) and 2019 Nationals (5.68 ERA, ranked 29th). Both teams advanced to the World Series, with the Nationals winning the title with Sean Doolittle, Daniel Hudson and Fernando Rodney at the back-end of their pen.

Obviously, there are countless factors that impact a team's chances of making the playoffs, but managing an excellent bullpen is at or near the top of the list.

Let's take a look at current bullpen ERA rankings through late June:

Team Bullpen ERA

(through 6/26/23 games)

Rank

Team

Bullpen ERA

Rank

Team

Bullpen ERA

Rank

Team 

Bullpen ERA

1

NYY

2.85

11

SF

3.81

21

CHC

4.20

2

CLE

2.96

12

BOS

3.82

22

NYM

4.23

3

SD

3.24

13

TOR

3.85

23

TEX

4.29

4

SEA

3.50

14

TB

3.87

24

PIT

4.53

5

LAA

3.57

15

CIN

3.93

25

CHW

4.56

6

MIN

3.63

16

MIA

3.99

26

LAD

4.68

7

DET

3.67

17

MIL

4.00

27

COL

4.82

8

ATL

3.69

18

STL

4.01

28

KC

4.84

9

HOU

3.73

19

ARI

4.12

29

WAS

4.93

10

BAL

3.77

20

PHI

4.17

30

OAK

5.74

Looking at current playoff teams (through 6/27/23 games) in the American League, only the Rangers (23rd) have a bullpen ERA in the bottom-half of the league, while the Yankees (1st), Angels (5th), Twins (6th), Orioles (10th) and Rays (14th) have been fairly reliable in relief.

Conversely, the current playoff teams in the National League have middling units based on team bullpen ERA. Only Atlanta has a top-10 ranked bullpen by this statistic, while the Giants (11th), Reds (15th), Marlins (16th) , D'Backs (19th) and Dodgers (26th) trail behind.

Other playoff contenders, like the Guardians (2nd), Mariners (4th), Astros (9th), Red Sox (12th), Blue Jays (13th), Brewers (17th) and Phillies (20th) could certainly alter the standings over the next few months. It will be interesting to see whether this correlation holds for 2023 playoff teams.

No matter how the playoff picture shakes out, it's quite clear that nearly half of the league will be looking to bolster its bullpen by the August 1st trade deadline.

Based on current bullpen ERA, the Dodgers and Rangers figure to be two of the most active suitors for relief help, but don't discount the likelihood of top-ranked clubs adding to their arm barns as well.

Among last year's playoff teams, only the Guardians (5th-ranked 2022 bullpen ERA at 3.05) and Mariners (6th, 3.33) stood pat with with their respective bullpens during their 2022 playoff pushes. The other 10 playoff teams from 2022 acquired one or more relief pitchers between the All-Star break and the trade deadline:

Astros (1st-ranked 2022 bullpen ERA, 2.80) - acquired Will Smith

Dodgers (2nd, 2.87) - acquired Chris Martin

Yankees (3rd, 2.97) - acquired Scott Effross and Lou Trivino

Braves (4th, 3.03) - acquired Raisel Iglesias

Rays (7th, 3.36) - acquired Garrett Cleavinger

Mets (10th, 3.55) - acquired Mychal Givens

Cardinals (11th, 3.61) - acquired Chris Stratton

Blue Jays (13th, 3.77) - acquired Anthony Bass and Zach Pop

Padres (14th, 3.81) - acquired Josh Hader

Phillies (23rd, 4.24) - acquired David Robertson

Don't forget about the Twins, who traded for Jorge Lopez and Michael Fulmer only to fall short of the playoffs, and the Brewers, who missed a NL Wild Card berth by one game after replacing Josh Hader with Taylor Rogers, Matt Bush and Trevor Rosenthal.

The 2023 Relief Market

The 2023 relief market figures to be red hot in the coming weeks. Looking at the list of 2024 free-agent relievers, we can bucket these pitchers into three categories:

  1. Relievers who are likely to be traded
  2. Relievers who could be dealt if their teams become sellers
  3. Relievers who are unlikely to be traded

Relief Pitchers LIKELY to Get Traded by August 1st

Player Name

Current

Team

2024 Status

Notes

Trevor May

OAK

UFA

Has more BB than K but veteran

Shintaro Fujinami

OAK

UFA

Middle-relief IP eater w/97.8mph heater & K upside

Aroldis Chapman

KC

UFA

Proving he isn't cooked yet, +2 mph (99.8) on FB

Liam Hendriks

CHW

UFA

On IL, rem. salary will impact potential landing spot

Reynaldo Lopez

CHW

UFA

There's upside here, career-best K-rate

Keynan Middleton

CHW

UFA

Under the radar trade candidate having fine season

Joe Kelly

CHW

$9.5M club option

Can be filthy — LAD reunion?

Brent Suter

COL

UFA

On IL (oblique) but LHP & length out of pen

Pierce Johnson

COL

UFA

Has been awful, maybe a change of scenery helps?

Brad Hand

COL

$7M club option

Veteran LHP will certainly be coveted

Could the White Sox trade their entire bullpen? Given all that Liam Hendriks has gone through this year, I wonder if Chicago will even consider moving him. His current elbow injury and his remaining salary may impact whether or not he's moved, and to where.

Aroldis Chapman, Brad Hand and Brent Suter are three southpaws who will be in high demand strictly due to the fact that they throw left-handed.

Relief Pitchers who COULD Get Traded by August 1st

Player Name

Current

Team

2024 Status

Notes

Josh Hader

SD

UFA

Would be the most coveted RP if Padres sell

Nick Martinez

SD

$16M club option

Versatile swingman capable of SP or RP

Craig Kimbrel

PHI

UFA

Has been EXCELLENT of late, would be huge target

David Robertson

NYM

UFA

See above

Brooks Raley

NYM

$6.5M club option

Another LHP that teams will covet if available

Hector Neris

HOU

$8.5M club option

Veteran has been lights out for HOU

Chris Devenski

LAA

UFA

Would be an underrated acquisition if LAA sells

Matt Moore

LAA

UFA

Yep, another LHP

Aaron Loup

LAA

$7.5M club option

See above, but Loup hasn't been as good

Michael Fulmer

CHC

UFA

Struggling overall, but recent 12-game scoreless streak

Brad Boxberger

CHC

$5M mutual option

Dealing with forearm strain, but is throwing

Jordan Hicks

STL

UFA

STL is building trade value by giving him SV chances

Drew VerHagen

STL

UFA

Tough on LHB

Dylan Floro

MIA

UFA

Would be coveted if MIA falls out of it

Despite their current 4th place standing in the NL West division, the Padres' odds of making the playoffs is still 29.3 percent, making a Josh Hader trade unlikely at the moment. However, if San Diego does choose to sell at the trade deadline, Hader would immediately jump to the top of playoff teams' target lists.

Craig Kimbrel would not be far behind if the Phillies fall out of playoff contention. Kimbrel has been outstanding — yes, I italicized to emphasize just how good he has been over the last month and change. Kimbrel has permitted just one earned run in the month of June with a 0.67 WHIP and 20:3 K:BB ratio over 12 innings.

Jordan Hicks is an interesting name should the Cardinals choose to sell. St. Louis has been has been giving Hicks save chances of late, and you have to wonder if that was intentional in order to build up his trade value.

Relief Pitchers UNLIKELY to Be Traded

Player Name

Current

Team

2024 Status

Notes

Will Smith

TEX

UFA

His 93.3% team SV share is tops among closers

Andrew Chafin

ARI

$7.3M club option

Arizona's most trusted LHP

Wandy Peralta

NYY

UFA

New York's most trusted LHP

Daniel Hudson

LAD

$6.5 club option

Dodgers are anticipating his return

Shelby Miller

LAD

UFA

Neck issue has resurfaced

Kirby Yates

ATL

$5.8M club option

When Yates & Jimenez are 4th/5th on the depth chart...

Joe Jimenez

ATL

UFA

...your team is doing something right

Collin McHugh

ATL

$6M club option

Versatile long-man for one of best teams in baseball

Buck Farmer

CIN

UFA

Having a career year for CIN & they NEED RP depth

Maybe the Dodgers' relief acquisition is simply getting Daniel Hudson (knee) back from the IL? Hudson has thrown 8.1 scoreless innings on his minor league rehab assignment thus far with a 13:1 K:BB ratio. Los Angeles is greatly anticipating his return, which is expected this weekend on June 30.

I will likely loop back around to this article with some trade predictions in the coming weeks. In the meantime, which relief pitchers do you think will be on the move this summer?

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan Rufe
Ryan manages the MLB Closer Grid and authors 'Closer Encounters'. He also contributes to the MLB draft kit and has been helping RotoWire subscribers through our 'Ask An Expert' feature since 2014. He's an NFBC enthusiast.
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