Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers & More MLB Bets and Expert Picks for May 17

Written by

Michael Rathburn

Published on May 17, 2024

MLB Bets and Expert Picks for
Friday, May 17

YTD 61-66-1

Prior article 3-0 (+3.79 units)

POWER OUTAGE

Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.

WEATHER IMPACT

Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark.

BULLPEN USAGE

You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play.

WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING

Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.

MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)

1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)

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Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are 1st in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching at home with 135 and second in runs per game at home (5.35). Frankie Montas numbers are underwhelming to say the least. He is averaging 3.4 strikeouts per game, 12.9 recorded outs, with a 7.30 ERA and 1.95 WHIP on the road. He has averaged 6.6 K/9 and BB/9 on the road, so this could get out of hand very early.

The Dodgers are 15-9 to the OVER on their team totals at home in which the majority of them have been 4.5 runs. They have been 5-5 in their last 10, so we get some value on them in this spot.

MLB Picks for Reds at Dodgers

Dodgers OVER 4.5 runs for 2 units (DraftKings -130)

New York Mets at Miami Marlins

Christian Scott has been impressive in his first two starts with a 2.84 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 14 strikeouts in 12.2 innings. We get a great low-scoring run environment in Miami against a weak offense that has a 86 wRC+ (bottom 5). The Marlins are 8-2 to the OVER at home in their last 10 allowing 6.5 runs per game.

There is heavy action on Scott and the line is as high as -175 currently.

MLB Picks for Mets at Marlins

Christian Scott OVER 17.5 recorded outs for 1 unit (DraftKings -146)

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Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

Zack Wheeler got roughed up in his last start in Miami, so I will go back to the well with him figuring that he bounces back. But the Phillies' current run is just too strong to ignore with a 7-3, 16-4 and 23-7 run over the last 10/20/30 games. They are 12-2 at home in the last 14 averaging 6.8 runs per game while allowing 3.9 runs per game for a +3.8 run differential.

Jake Irvin has been solid this year and even better on the road so there is some risk going with the Phillies again.

MLB Picks for Nationals at Phillies

Phillies -1.5 for 1 unit (BetRivers -121)

San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves

Max Fried has been a product of his opponents with over three earned runs against the Dbacks, Dodgers, Astros and Phillies. But he gets one of the worst teams against left-handed pitching with the Padres, who are 29th in wRC+ (51) against lefties.

The Padres are on a bad stretch that just saw them get swept at home by the Rockies and Matt Waldron has a 5.09 ERA.

MLB Picks for Padres at Braves