This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets and Expert Picks for
Wednesday, May 8
YTD 49-60-1
Prior article 4-1 (+3.19 units)
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed, strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals medium plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Washington Nationals 
at Baltimore Orioles
The Nationals have been the most profitable team in baseball at +$1017 (+$929 on the road) because of the tremendous value they have had on the road as underdogs. They have won seven out of 10 straight up as road dogs. Mitchell Parker is another Nats arm who has been solid this year, with a 2.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 19 strikeouts in 21.1 innings.
MLB Picks for Nationals at Orioles
- Nationals ML for 1 unit (FanDuel +150)
Seattle Mariners 
at Minnesota Twins
I am not a fan of Chris Paddack (affectionately know as "Padlock") by some in the betting community, but he gets the worst team in terms of strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. The Mariners are dead last with 29 percent. He's also been much better at home with six, 10, and five strikeouts in his last three home games versus just two, two and two in his last three road starts.
MLB Picks for Mariners at Twins
- Chris Paddack OVER 5.5 strikeouts for 1.12 unit (FanDuel -112)
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Boston Red Sox 
at Atlanta Braves 
In the much-anticipated revenge game for Chris Sale against the Red Sox, I like the matchup for Sale as the Red Sox have historically struggled against left-handed pitching on the road. The Sox are dead last in strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers at 29.5 percent.
Sale's numbers overall have improved to start the season versus 2023 with a lower walk rate, higher swinging K rate and lower WHIP. The Red Sox are stacking the lineup with seven right-handed batters, but the majority of those hitters are below average.
MLB Picks for Red Sox at Braves
- Chris Sale OVER 7.5 strikeouts for 1.1 unit (BetMGM -110)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Nationals ML for 1 unit (FanDuel +150)
- Chris Paddack OVER 5.5 strikeouts for 1.12 unit (FanDuel -112)
- Chris Sale OVER 7.5 strikeouts for 1.1 unit (BetMGM -110)
