Bernie on the Scene: AL West Analysis & Predictions

This week, I'll look at the American League West.

The payroll estimates are from FanGraphs. The grades and win totals are mine.

A grade of C reflects an average major league player.

I do not list bench players.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

HOUSTON ASTROS
Estimated Payroll: $189M 
My Estimated Win Total: 89 

Lineup: Steady and effective

Jose Altuve, 2B, BR, Grade B-
Not the same guy at age 30, but still a quality hitter

Michael Brantley, LF, BL, Grade B-
Still an on-base and hit machine at age 33

Alex Bregman, 3B, BR, Grade B
I still like this guy to hit a ton of homers and drive in runs

Carlos Correa, SS, BR, Grade B
Not elite, but if he stays healthy, he's plenty good

Yordan Alvarez, DH, BL, Grade B-
Tremendous power with chances for tons of RBIs

Yuli Gurriel, !B, BR, Grade C+
I worry about his bat in his age 37 season

Kyle Tucker, RF, BL, Grade B
Uppercut home run swing should put him higher in batting order

Myles Straw, CF, BR, Grade C
Will have to steal plenty of bases to stay fantasy worthy

Martin Maldonado, C, BR, Grade C-
Not much offense fro an aging veteran

Rotation: Weakened without Valdez, Verlander and Whitely

Zack Greinke-RHP-Grade B
Fastball has faded, but every other pitch has great movement

Lance McCullers Jr., RHP, Grade B-
New contract proves his worth to the Astros

Jose Urquidy, RHP, Grade B-
I see a big year coming from this mid-rotation starter

Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Grade C+
Once his arm is stretched out, the job is his

Brandon Bielak or Cristian Javier, Grade C
I view them both as desperation starters

Closer: Solid

Ryan Pressly, Grade B-
One of the more stable closers in the American League

The Astros' pitching staff took a huge hit with the fractured finger suffered by Framber Valdez. When he returns, they will be markedly improved. They should have Jake Odorizzi, a late sign, ready to roll as a starter soon.

Losing Forest Whitley to surgery and having Justin Verlander sidelined as well has put that additional damper on their rotation. They should have looked for more depth in the offseason.

Losing George Springer in free agency was a huge loss. He'll return from his oblique injury soon enough and prove the Astros were wrong for letting him walk.

The Astros have just enough to win the division. But I think it will be a very close race with both the Angels and the Athletics hanging around all year. The team that can pitch, can win. With Valdez and Odorizzi, I think that could be Houston. Look for Yordan Alvarez to really rake.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS 
Estimated Payroll: $181M
My Estimated Win Total: 86 

Lineup: Compelling

David Fletcher, 2B, BR, Grade C+
A very useful and quality player capable of moving positions

Shohei Ohtani, DH, BL, Grade B-
Great spring at the plate and now back on the mound

Mike Trout, CF, BR, Grade A
Still simply among the best with dedication and true talent

Anthony Rendon, 3B, BR, Grade B
I've seen too many popups, but I still love his bat

Justin Upton, LF, BR, Grade C+
Now 33, his bat isn't what it once was, but he can be helpful

Albert Pujols, !B, BR, Grade C+
At 41, Albert could still produce in what could be his last year

Jose Iglesias, SS, BR, Grade B-
Baseball is now seeing what I have been raving about

Max Stassi, C, BR, Grade C-
Not fantasy worthy, but a good defensive catcher

Dexter Fowler, RF, BB, Grade C-
This is what is keeping Jo Adell from Anaheim?

Rotation: Thin and Vulnerable

Dylan Bundy, RHP, Grade C+
I still don't see what others see in the "new" Dylan Bundy

Andrew Heaney, LHP, Grade C
Inconsistent starter will shine or sink from start to start

Alex Cobb, RHP, Grade C
Meh. I still won't forget the Rays traded him and that's important

Griffin Canning, RHP, Grade C
Don't expect much because you won't get much

Jose Quintana, LHP, Grade C
I've seen this movie so many times and it doesn't change

Shohei Ohtani, RHP, Grade B-
The best they have in their 6-man rotation that includes him

Closer: Upgraded

Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Grade B-
Among the better options in a category with slim pickings

If the Angels would spend some money on pitching, they would easily win the division. There were plenty of options available for Arte Moreno's money, but they didn't improve their pitching staff. That will haunt them. Their starting pitching is the definition of MEH!

I got to see Albert Pujols in spring training, and he looked terrific. He may not play every game, but he gives 120 percent every moment. I even saw him steal a base. He's a true Hall of Famer.

Any team that has Mike Trout can be a winner. He's an amazing, gifted athlete and even a nicer person.

Why did they need Dexter Fowler? Why does any team need Dexter Fowler? Couldn't that money have been used on a pitcher and then let Jo Adell play every single day and get some experience? NO. They aren't doing that.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Estimated Payroll: $85M 
My Estimated Win Total: 84

Lineup: Struggles Coming

Mark Canha, LF, BR, Grade C
Could show some pop from leadoff spot

Ramon Laureano, CF, BR, Grade C+
Nice power and speed combination works

Matt Chapman, 3B, BR, Grade B-
All-World defense with a quality bat

Matt Olson, 1B, BL, Grade B
I'm looking for a huge year as he enters his prime

Sean Murphy, C, BR, Grade C
Could surprise with his bat

Mitch Moreland, DH BL, Grade C
Far from washed up, he can still hit some at age 35

Stephen Piscotty, RF, BR, Grade C
I'm still pulling for this underachiever to finally show up

Elvis Andrus, SS, BR, Grade C
His slip is showing and team will miss Marcus Semien in many ways

Tony Kemp, 2B, BL, Grade C-
I see playing time here for Chad Pinder

Rotation: Relatively Strong

Chris Bassitt, RHP, Grade C+
I'm not sure he deserves this top spot

Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Grade B
I think this guy is on the brink of possible stardom

Sean Manaea, LHP, Grade B-
Has talent, but has to throw strikes to win big

Frankie Montas, RHP, Grade C+
I'm still hoping he puts it altogether

Daulton Jefferies, RHP, Grade C
Keeps the spot warm for Mike Fiers.

Closer: Trevor Rosenthal, RHP, Grade B-
Team made an investment in an important role

If I'm the Athletics, I have to find a spot for lefty A.J. Puk. If he's healthy, he is better than either of their projected fifth starters. Puk can be really nasty, and I want to see him pitch either in the rotation or the pen. I think it will happen soon.

That said, this team could be in the hunt if a few of their bats come alive and have career years. As it stands, I don't see much offense. They'll miss what Semien has offered. They won't miss Khris Davis as much.

I think we're going to see Jesus Luzardo show the world that he can really pitch. If he is who I think he is, he can carry their pitching staff.

For me, this Athletics team is not deep in offense or in pitching. The A's do have two very solid corner infielders, but Chapman and Olson aren't enough. They need help. I don't see it coming anywhere, anytime soon. Color the Athletics tepid.

SEATTLE MARINERS
Estimated Payroll: $85M 
My Estimated Win Total: 70

Lineup: Uninspiring

Mitch Haniger, RF, BR, Grade C+
Like Oakland's Piscotty, I keep waiting for this guy to pop

Dylan Moore, 2B, BR, Grade C
A lot of analysts like him more than I like him

Kyle Lewis, CF, BR, Grade B+
An incredible athlete on the brink of stardom

Kyle Seager, 3B, BL, Grade C
Got left out when family genes were distributed

Ty France, DH, BR, Grade C+
Ultimately could give your fantasy team some versatility

Tom Murphy, C, BR, Grade C-
I don't expect very much from his bat

Taylor Trammell, LF, BL, Grade C+
Could platoon, but he's an outstanding athlete

Evan White, 1B, BR, Grade C
Mariners like him more than I like him and that's fine with me

J.P. Crawford, SS, BL, Grade C
Improving, but he has a long way to go with the bat

Rotation: Better, But Still Grim

Marco Gonzales, LHP,  Grade C+
I see plenty of room for more consistency

Yusei Kikuchi, LHP, Grade C
Mariners are encouraged, I'm not that hopeful

James Paxton, LHP Grade C+
If his arm stays on, he'll offer a big boost for the rotation

Justus Sheffield, LHP, Grade C
I never drank the Kool-Aid from my first look at him

Chris Flexen, RHP, Grade C-
I just don't see him helping your fantasy team much at all

Justin Dunn, RHP, Grade C
Another arm, but the results won't be that good

Closer: Meh

Rafael Montero, RHP, Grade C
He's landed in a spot where he can get a chance

The Mariners, like the Angels, are probably going to use a six-man rotation. Unlike the Angels wanting to protect Shohei Ohtani, the Mariners may want to minimize the damage for any one of their suspect starters. The sixth man might help keep James Paxton healthy, so I like it.

The Mariners boast one of baseball's most exiting players in Kyle Lewis. And Jarred Kelenic will be up soon, so that will help the offense. But they'll make sure to save a year of service time and not deploy him right away. But Kelenic is the real deal. And a really nice guy.

The Mariners future will be much better once Julio Rodriguez, Kelenic and pitcher Logan Gilbert are on the roster with Kyle Lewis. That will be a team to watch.

For now, the rotation still stinks, the offense is limited and the only hope they have is that the Rangers continue to blunder. If the Rangers awaken, the Mariners sink to the bottom of the standings. It could happen. Easily.

TEXAS RANGERS
Estimated Payroll: $90M
My Estimated Win Total: 66

Lineup: Gloomy

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, SS, BR, Grade C
Great spring, but is this guy really a shortstop?

David Dahl, CF, BL, Grade C+
Time for him to shine and stay healthy in new environment

Joey Gallo, RF, BL, Grade C
Not much batting average but awesome, awesome power

Rougned Odor, 3B, BL, Grade C
Never again for me. Ever. But watch, this year he rakes

Nick Solak, 2B, BR, Grade C
Position flexibility could be available to you with Solak

Brock Holt, DH, BL, Grade C
I think he wins this job and will offer some offense

Ronald Guzman, 1B,  BL,  Grade C
Looks like he gets the job, but he's very iffy

Jose Trevino, C,  BR,  Grade C
Not among the catchers to roster

Leody Taveras, CF, BB, Grade C
Being taken for steals, but can he get on base?

Rotation: Alarming

Kyle Gibson, RHP, Grade C
He can go either way, but inconsistency is concerning

Kohei Arihara, RHP, Grade ?
I have not seen him pitch yet

Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, Grade C+
Folty may surprise and be really steady

Jordan Lyles, RHP, Grade D+
This could be a nightmare

Dane Dunning, RHP, Grade C+
He has to be given plenty of rest to save his arm

Closers: Plentiful and Problematic

Ian Kennedy, RHP, Grade C
Has done it before in Kansas City and could repeat here

Matt Bush, RHP, Grade C
Not my first choice, but his arm is attached to his body

Taylor Hearn, LHP,  Grade C-
His ERA could approach 5 and this isn't his spot

Josh Sborz, RHP, Grade C-
Yes, he is under consideration for this role

Other than Joey Gallo, I frankly don't see any other redeeming qualities to this team. I think a solid Triple-A team could give them fits. And their rotation is every bit as bad as the Orioles and Pirates. Maybe worse than the Pirates. Yes, worse.

The Rangers might score some runs with David Dahl being on base when Joey Gallo brings rain with one of his 40 homers. But Gallo is out there on his own, and that's a huge shame. He's great to watch hit.

The shortstop isn't a shortstop. The third baseman isn't a third baseman. The team is in total disarray and things have gone from awful to putrid in just a few short years. And Nate Lowe probably can't make this team.

It is beyond time to jettison (I love that word) the entire front office and send them to the golf course.

HEADING HOME

Welcome to the 2021 MLB baseball season. I wish each of us success managing our fantasy teams. HAPPY NEW YEAR.

When I heard the news about the White Sox Eloy Jimenez rupturing his left pectoral tendon it made me sick to my stomach. One of the fine young talents in baseball is out for probably six months.

Jimenez got hurt crashing into a wall to try to save a homer. He has been trying to show the White Sox brass that he can play defense. It was a costly adventure.

Injuries are killers. The White Sox lost Jimenez for the season. The Mets lost Carlos Carrasco. The Blue Jays have lost closer Kirby Yates, and possibly George Springer. Nate Pearson can't stay healthy, and Cavan Biggio is the latest to be injured. The Rockies Kyle Freeland has a shoulder strain. There are injuries everywhere, and they are impacting MLB teams, but most importantly, they are killing our fantasy teams. That's all that matters.

Thank you for following me on Twitter @BerniePleskoff, and read my articles at Forbes.com.