Beating the Shift: Eight Late Targets

When it comes to finding under-the-radar players in your draft, it's best to start by looking at the average draft position (ADP). The ADP found for each of the following players comes directly from the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC). The criteria to make this list was having a current ADP of 250 or above. These ADPs can be found directly on an individual's player page on the RotoWire website. It's important to note that a player's ADP can change drastically throughout the course of an offseason. Variables of change can include spring training performance, playing time projection, trades, injuries, or callups.

The following list includes three undervalued players as well as one very deep sleeper from each league. All of these potentially undervalued players are early enough in their careers to take a big leap in production. The deep sleepers listed are/were both highly-touted prospects in their respective organizations and are still young enough to make an impact. None of these players, with the potential exception of Souza, are ones that you'll have to reach for on draft day. In fact, many will probably go undrafted, meaning you should be keeping a close eye on their production throughout spring training and the start of the regular season before committing to them.

American League

OF - Steve Souza (Rays) - Age 25 (NFBC ADP: 254)
2014 Stats (Minors) 357 AB, 62 R, 18 HR, 77 RBI, 28 SB, .345 AVG, .427 OBP
2014 Stats (Nationals) 23 AB, 2 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB .130 AVG, .231 OBP
2015 Rotowire Projections 416 AB, 71 R, 16 HR, 56 RBI, 12 SB, .262 AVG, .308 OBP

Souza is a name gaining a lot of steam on sleeper lists heading into the 2015 season. Souza, a former third-round pick by the Nationals and a key player in the three-team trade that sent Wil Myers to San Diego in December, had a monster season for the Syracuse Chiefs (Washington's Triple-A affiliate) in 2014. After being suspended 50 games for performance-enhancing drugs in July of 2010, Souza bounced back slowly in 2011 (11 HR, 56 RBI, 25 SB, .726 OPS), only to have big seasons in 2012 (23 HR, 85 RBI, 14 SB, .938 OPS), 2013 (16 HR, 54 RBI, 32 SB, .938 OPS) and 2014 (18 HR, 77 RBI, 28 SB, 1.004 OPS) in the Nationals organization. Trading Souza made sense for the Nationals as they didn't have room for him in their currently-crowded outfield. In Tampa Bay, however, Souza is expected to take over the starting right field duties and bat near the middle of the order (projected fifth) for the Rays. A case can certainly be made that Souza is the favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year award.

SP - Drew Pomeranz (Athletics) - Age 26 (NFBC ADP: 327)
2014 Stats (Minors) 46.1 IP, 3 W, 54 K, 17 BB, 3.69 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
2014 Stats (Athletics) 69 IP, 5 W, 64 K, 26 BB, 2.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
2015 Rotowire Projections 151 IP, 9 W, 145 K, 59 BB, 3.46 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

After getting traded from Colorado to Oakland last offseason, I wrote that Pomeranz had the potential to make a strong impact in the Athletics rotation before the year was over. A very good case was made, as Pomeranz compiled a 2.58 ERA in 10 starts for Oakland in 2014. Heading into 2015, it seems that a path has cleared for Pomeranz to secure a rotation spot for the Athletics. Currently, Pomeranz is slotted into the third spot in the rotation, behind only Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir. Even with the potential return of A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker at some point this season, I fully expect Pomeranz to keep a rotation spot in front of names such as Jesse Hahn, Jesse Chavez, Sean Nolin, and Chris Bassitt. The big question mark for Pomeranz this season is just how many innings he's able to pitch. Throughout his brief career, he has never compiled more than 147 innings in a single season. The Athletics were also cautious with his workload last year as they only let him throw more than 100 pitches in a game once (101) and never allowed him to pitch more than seven innings in a start. The knock on Pomeranz is his tendency to rack up a high pitch count in a small amount of innings. If he continues to work on his control and develop his changeup, Pomeranz has a really nice fastball, curveball, and changeup combination that will keep lineups from scoring a lot of runs in 2015.

3B - Luis Valbuena (Astros) - Age 29 (NFBC ADP: 378)
2014 Stats (Cubs) 478 AB, 68 R, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 1 SB .249 AVG, .341 OBP
2015 Rotowire Projections 338 AB, 50 R, 13 HR, 43 RBI, 1 SB, .275 AVG, .381 OBP

Kris Bryant was the talk of minor league baseball in 2014. All he did was hit a combined .325 with 43 HR and 110 RBI. It's pretty safe to say that he's ready to play every day for the Cubs in 2015. Knowing this, Chicago traded Valbuena and Dan Straily to the Astros for Dexter Fowler. If you've never heard of Valbuena, it may be because he hit in a rather porous Cubs lineup for the past three seasons. However, in those years, Valbuena continued to improve his approach at the plate. Last season at the hot corner, he very quietly hit 16 home runs for the Cubs. With third base being more thin than in years past, Valbuena provides upside for owners looking for a cheap option. Currently, he is projected to hit second in a much improved Houston lineup, hitting behind Jose Altuve and in front of names such as Evan Gattis, Chris Carter, George Springer, and Colby Rasmus. If Valbuena can hold off Matt Dominguez for the starting job at third base this spring, look for him to provide 20 home run potential for Houston in 2015.

SP - Danny Hultzen (Mariners) - Age 25 (NFBC ADP: 680)
2014 Stats (Injured - Shoulder)
2015 Rotowire Projections 78 IP, 4 W, 63 K, 41 BB, 3.58 ERA, 1.37 WHIP

If you've ever played in a dynasty league, you're well aware of Hultzen. In 179 career innings in the minor leagues, Hultzen has accumulated a 2.66 ERA with 196 strikeouts and a 1.18 WHIP. Heading into 2013, Hultzen was considered a top-30 prospect in all of baseball, before blowing out his shoulder and missing most of that season and all of 2014. After a long road back, it appears that Hultzen will be healthy heading into spring training this season. Although the Mariners' rotation looks full heading into the regular season, Hultzen may only be an injury or two away from being fantasy relevant in 2015. He'll most likely begin the season in Tacoma building up arm strength, but a couple of good starts in a row may force the Mariners' hand as they are looking to be a legitimate contender this season. In re-draft leagues, Hultzen can go undrafted to begin the season. He will be one to monitor as the season progresses, as he could provide sneaky value to owners looking for impact starters in the second half of the season.

National League

2B - Jung-Ho Kang (Pirates) - Age 27 (NFBC ADP: 304)
2014 Stats (Japan) 418 AB, 103 R, 40 HR, 117 RBI, 3 SB, .356 AVG, .459 OBP
2015 Rotowire Projections 388 AB, 56 R, 14 HR, 48 RBI, 6 SB, .242 AVG, .299 OBP

Kang, signed by Pittsburgh for four years, $16 million, is one of the ultimate wild cards heading into drafts. After watching some film, Kang's swing has a lot of power, giving him 20 home run potential in the majors. The problem is that the Pirates already have a similar player securing the second base position in Pittsburgh (Neil Walker). However, with Jordy Mercer playing short, and Josh Harrison most likely regressing from his 2014 numbers, look for the Pirates to get creative in finding playing time for Kang. His numbers in Korea last year were beyond impressive. The question remains if those numbers can translate at all to the major leagues. General manager Neal Huntington says they have no intentions of putting Kang in the minors, so there's obvious excitement from the organization about his abilities to successfully hit major league pitching. Kang isn't going to cost more than a couple of dollars in an auction draft, so it doesn't hurt to take a chance on a player with power potential that could have multi-position eligibility. If he can just find enough at-bats, Kang should be serviceable in many formats in 2015.

SP - Marco Gonzales (Cardinals) - Age 23 (NFBC ADP: 482)
2014 Stats (Minors) 122 IP, 9 W, 117 K, 27 BB, 2.43 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
2014 Stats (Cardinals) 34.2 IP, 4 W, 31 K, 21 BB, 4.15 ERA, 1.53 WHIP
2015 Rotowire Projections 90 IP, 6 W, 76 K, 36 BB, 3.70 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

Gonzales may have one of the best changeups in all of baseball. After only pitching 145 innings in his first two seasons of minor league baseball, Gonzales was called up by the Cardinals in June 2014. Don't let his brief major league numbers in 2014 fool you. Gonzales has exceptional command for a starting pitcher. In those 145 minor league innings, Gonzales compiled only 35 walks (1.12 WHIP). Remember the last Cardinals pitcher with a good changeup who flew through the system? Michael Wacha took a very similar career path for the Cardinals. This spring, Gonzales will be competing with Carlos Martinez for the final spot in the rotation. Make sure to pay close attention to this job battle as draft day approaches. If he fails to win the job, he will remain one injury or poor performance away from being part of a rotation known for having very reliable fantasy starters. In dynasty leagues, this may be your last chance to buy low.

C - Andrew Susac (Giants) - Age 24 (NFBC ADP: 488)
2014 Stats (Minors) 213 AB, 34 R, 10 HR, 32 RBI, 0 SB, .268 BA, .379 OBP
2014 Stats (Giants) 88 AB, 13 R, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 0 SB, .273 AVG, .326 OBP
2015 Rotowire Projections N/A

Susac is a name that I'm surprised isn't getting a lot of play this offseason. In his brief stint with the Giants last season, he was able to put up really nice numbers for a catcher. In the minors, Susac was a career .260 hitter with an OBP of .371. In 2013 and 2014, Susac compiled an OPS over .800. He makes a lot of contact and has 15-homer potential in the majors. With Buster Posey slowly making the long-term move to first base, Susac looks to be the answer at catcher in San Francisco. This will be another situation that should be closely monitored during spring training. If Susac is able to accumulate enough at-bats in the majors this season, he could provide some nice value to owners looking for catching upside. The catcher pool is thin, and Susac makes for an intriguing option in deeper two-catcher leagues heading into 2015. Don't be afraid to take a chance late on a catcher even with Posey still in the picture in San Francisco. It may not even be a bad idea to handcuff Posey and Susac in NL-only leagues this year.

SP - Eddie Butler (Rockies) - Age 23 (NFBC ADP: 654)
2014 Stats (Minors) 117 IP, 69 K, 37 BB, 4.00 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
2014 Stats (Rockies) 16 IP, 3 K, 7 BB, 6.75 ERA, 1.87 WHIP
2015 Rotowire Projections 46 IP, 2 W, 28 K, 16 BB, 4.30 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Butler has a rather confusing stat line so far in his short career with the Rockies organization. In 2012 and 2013, Butler was able to fast track through the system, keeping his ERA and WHIP extremely low and averaging close to a strikeout per inning. However, 2014 was not friendly to Butler. His ability to strike out batters diminished right before our eyes. In 133 total innings between the minors and majors, he was only able to rack up 72 strikeouts. A shoulder injury ended Butler's disappointing season early, leaving him as a forgotten piece. So who is the real Eddie Butler? It may be worth the last pick in your draft to find out. Assuming Butler is healthy heading into 2015, he wipes a clean slate and has a chance to re-establish himself as the top prospect that he was just one year ago at this time. He's still only 23 years old with a really nice fastball, slider, changeup, and occasional curveball arsenal. This could be a great opportunity to buy when everyone else decides to pass, particularly in formats where you can stream him on the road since he'll pitch half of his home games in Coors Field.