This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The BNP Paribas Open continues on the outdoor hard courts of Indian Wells, California on Tuesday with the conclusion of the men's third round and the beginning of the women's fourth round. A pair of unseeded American men have rewarded bettors' faith in them thus far and will look to do so again, while a substantial underdog on the women's side has matched up well in the past against her heavily favored opponent. Match odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Every player left in the draw has already taken the court here, giving us a chance to take a look at their current form. That small-sample knowledge, coupled with the larger contexts of players' careers and recent performances should help identify which favorites are likely to cruise to victory and which underdogs are ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Sorana Cirstea (+320) vs. Simona Halep
Cirstea's a matchup problem for Halep, as the veteran Romanian has enough power to hit through her defensively oriented countrywoman, and their familiarity with each other's games allows Cirstea to pick her spots better than most of Halep's offensive-minded opponents. While the slower nature of the hard courts at Indian Wells should play in Halep's favor, Cirstea's 2-1 career head-to-head edge against Halep includes wins on both hard and clay courts, and they're only separated by two spots in the rankings at the moment. Given that context, it's hard not to like Cirstea at these long odds.
Steve Johnson (+295) vs. Hubert Hurkacz
There's something about playing in California that brings out the best in Johnson, who led USC to four consecutive national championships back in his college days and has added to his success in his home state with straight-sets wins over Daniel Altmaier and No. 22 seed Aslan Karatsev. All the pressure will be on Hurkacz against the 32-year-old American, and the No. 11 seed hasn't been immune from bad losses in 2022. Adrian Mannarino and Lorenzo Musetti have both beaten Hurkacz on hard courts this year, and each was ranked outside the top 60 at the time they played.
Honorable Mention:
Frances Tiafoe (+280) vs. Andrey Rublev
Lock It In
Iga Swiatek (-475) vs. Angelique Kerber
Swiatek has been the best big tournament player on the WTA Tour in 2022, outside of the undefeated Ashleigh Barty, who's skipping the March hard-court swing. After getting to the semifinals of the Australian Open, Swiatek proceeded to win the first WTA 1000 of the year in Doha and she's added a pair of similar-looking victories here, beating Anhelina Kalinina 5-7, 6-0, 6-1 and Clara Tauson 6-7 (3), 6-2, 6-1. The recent slow starts are a bit troubling for the 20-year-old Pole, but Swiatek's 12-1 record at the biggest tournaments this year speaks for itself. Kerber, meanwhile, is just 2-2 in 2022, with both of her wins coming at this tournament. The feisty German has done well to reach the Round of 16 here, but Kerber's best results are behind her at age 34, while Swiatek's only getting better and better. Without enough power to exploit Swiatek's lengthy backswings and throw off her timing, Kerber's going to struggle to get the heavy favorite off her game.
Matteo Berrettini (-380) vs. Lloyd Harris
Harris' big serve makes him dangerous, but Berrettini's an even better server and has a much better ground game to go with it. The South African's 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 win over world No. 82 Facundo Bagnis moved Harris' season record to 2-6, and it's his only win against a top-600 opponent in 2022. He hasn't been playing like someone capable of upsetting a top-10 staple. Berrettini's 8-5 record suggests some vulnerability, but the five players to beat him this year are Rafael Nadal, Daniil Medvedev, Carlos Alcaraz, Alex de Minaur (in de Minaur's home country of Australia) and Tommy Paul (in a match Berrettini was leading before retiring due to an abdominal injury). A loss to Harris would be substantially more disappointing than any of those defeats.
Honorable Mention:
Madison Keys (-425) vs. Harriet Dart
Value Bet
Tommy Paul (-110) vs. Alex de Minaur
Paul played exceptionally well in his 6-2, 4-6, 7-6 (2) second-round upset of No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev. If the American can replicate that level against de Minaur, Paul should find himself back in the Round of 16 at Indian Wells for the second time in less than six months. Paul clearly enjoys the conditions here, having beaten Andrey Rublev at this tournament in October and now Zverev. De Minaur's counterpunching style should allow Paul to get into a rhythm and take control of the match.
Honorable Mention:
Botic Van de Zandschulp (-140) vs. Miomir Kecmanovic
