2025 U.S. Open: Top First-Round Upsets, Locks and Value Bets for Monday
First-round U.S. Open action continues Monday from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York. Some favored seeds are in good position to take care of business against inexperienced opponents, while a player who recently returned from injury is on upset alert against an opponent who has been a tough out in recent Grand Slams.
All Tennis Odds & Lines below are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds for tennis betting by checking other best sports betting sites and sports betting apps. We offer exclusive sportsbook promos in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the U.S. Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
U.S. Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Cameron Norrie (+160) vs. Sebastian Korda
Korda hasn't gotten many matches under his belt recently due to a stress fracture in his shin. The tune-up event in Winston Salem was his first action since the French Open, and Korda withdrew before the Winston Salem semifinals due to an illness. Not only is conditioning a possible issue in this best-of-five set format, but Korda also isn't very mentally match-fit, while Norrie has been locked in at the biggest tournaments this year. The 35th-ranked Brit just missed being seeded here after going 7-2 combined at the French Open and Wimbledon, where Norrie lost in the Round of 16 to Novak Djokovic and quarterfinals to Carlos Alcaraz, respectively. Korda should quickly climb from his current No. 75 ranking if he stays healthy, but this matchup would be a toss-up even with Korda at 100 percent.
Damir Dzumhur (+275) vs. Gabriel Diallo
Dzumhur has enjoyed a resurgent season at age 33 to climb to No. 61 in the rankings. He has five top-50 wins since March. The 6-foot-8 Diallo has superior physical tools and a far better serve, but consistency has eluded the 23-year-old Canadian, who is just 8-11 on hard courts in 2025 and 19-23 on this surface in his career. Diallo has climbed into the seeded range thanks to his strong play on clay and grass this year, but he has yet to demonstrate sustained hard-court success.
Honorable Mention
Petra Kvitova (+160) vs. Diane Parry
U.S. Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Andrey Rublev (-330) vs. Dino Prizmic
Rublev has been dealt some tough hands at Grand Slams in 2025, suffering fourth-round losses to Jannik Sinner at Roland Garros and Alcaraz at Wimbledon after talented teenager Joao Fonseca knocked off the big-hitting Russian in the first round of the Australian Open. Even so, Rublev has managed to maintain a top-15 ranking, and he has what looks like a comfortable first-round draw against the 124th-ranked Prizmic, who hasn't notched a top-100 win this year. Rublev's consistent power off the forehand wing isn't something Prizmic has experienced on the Challenger Tour, which is where the 20-year-old Croatian plays the vast majority of his tournaments at this stage of his career.
Anna Kalinskaya (-380) vs. Clervie Ngounoue
Kalinskaya has had some injury and consistency issues in 2025, but the 29th-seeded Russian has rounded into her best form of the year during the North American hard-court swing. She's 9-3 since the end of Wimbledon, with five top-30 wins and losses to three tough opponents in Leylah Fernandez, Elina Svitolina and Iga Swiatek. Ngounoue may have a bright future, but the 19-year-old American hasn't had much success on the WTA Tour yet, as she's ranked 178th and has yet to win a Grand Slam match.
Honorable Mention
Ugo Humbert (-275) vs. Adam Walton
U.S. Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Elisabetta Cocciaretto (-165) vs. Yulia Putintseva
Cocciaretto is ranked 30 spots behind Putintseva, but the 85th-ranked Italian has been in far better form lately. Cocciaretto knocked off No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula at Wimbledon and won a 125-level WTA Tour event shortly thereafter. Meanwhile, the backsliding Putintseva has gone 1-8 in her last nine matches to drop to 15-20 in 2025, and her lone win in this poor stretch came against an opponent ranked outside the top 500.
Magdalena Frech (-150) vs. Talia Gibson
The 21-year-old Gibson has found some success in ITF events, but the 105th-ranked Aussie hasn't proven capable of hanging with WTA Tour regulars, with a record of 0-6 against top-90 competition in 2025. The 28th-seeded Frech is well within the range of players that have taken care of business against Gibson up to this point. Frech has reached at least the third round in two of the last three hard-court Grand Slams, while Gibson has only one career Grand Slam main-draw win.
Honorable Mention
Taylor Townsend (-165) vs. Antonia Ruzic
