This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The quarterfinals of the Australian Open continue Wednesday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, with the action starting while it's still Tuesday night in the United States. Three more Americans will be in action after the United States went 0-2 to begin quarterfinal play, while the title favorite on the men's side will look to maintain his head-to-head dominance against his quarterfinal opponent.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Picks: Upset Alert
Lorenzo Sonego (+240) vs. Ben Shelton
Shelton's the superior hard-court player, but the big-serving American will need to prove he can handle the moment as the favorite at a Grand Slam quarterfinal for the first time in his career. He reached the semifinals at the 2022 U.S. Open, but as an unseeded player against No. 10 seed Frances Tiafoe, Shelton didn't have much pressure on him in the quarterfinals during that run. This time, the 20th-ranked Shelton has a 35-spot edge in the rankings against Sonego, while this is the Italian's first Grand Slam quarterfinal in 26 main-draw appearances. Sonego has reached this point without facing a seeded opponent, knocking off talented teenagers Joao Fonseca and Learner Tien. The 22-year-old Shelton is a bit more experienced than those guys, which should help him here, but Shelton's shortcomings as a returner make him vulnerable if his serve isn't firing on all cylinders. These two have split two previous meetings, with Shelton winning 7-5 in the third on the hard courts of Cincinnati in 2022 before Sonego got revenge with a four-set clay-court win at the 2023 French Open.
Australian Open Odds: Lock It In
Jannik Sinner (-525) vs. Alex de Minaur
This is a comfortable matchup for Sinner, who should consistently get on the front foot with his superior power off both wings. De Minaur will make the world No. 1 hit a lot of extra balls, but Sinner's likely to be up to that challenge, as accuracy isn't an issue for the Italian off the ground. The heat seemed to get to Sinner during his Round of 16 match, but he showed resilience and recovered for a relatively straightforward 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 win over Holger Rune. Barring a physical ailment holding Sinner back, it's hard to see how de Minaur has much of a chance considering the Aussie is 0-9 against Sinner in their careers.
Honorable Mention
Iga Swiatek (-1400) vs. Emma Navarro
Australian Open Predictions: Value Bets
Elina Svitolina (+160) vs. Madison Keys
This match will ultimately be dictated by Keys' level, as the American is the bigger hitter, but Keys doesn't have much of a Plan B to turn to, and Svitolina has a lot of tools in her arsenal to try to throw Keys off her game. Both veteran players have plenty of experience at this stage, as Svitolina's 3-8 in her career in Grand Slam quarterfinals while Keys is 6-4 in such matches. Keys just knocked off No. 6 seed Elena Rybakina in a battle of big hitters, while Svitolina eliminated No. 4 seed Jasmine Paolini in the third round. The clash of styles here will be interesting to watch, and there hasn't been much separating these two in past encounters. Keys leads their head-to-head 3-2, all on hard courts, but Svitolina has won two of their last three meetings overall and two of three Grand Slam encounters, including a 6-2, 1-6, 6-1 decision in Svitolina's favor at the 2019 Australian Open.
