This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The fourth round of the Australian Open continues Monday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, with the action starting while it's still Sunday night in the United States. A talented youngster will look to shock the tennis world with what would be a huge upset, while all five Americans in action have a chance to keep advancing.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Picks: Upset Alert
Holger Rune (+800) vs. Jannik Sinner
Sinner has taken off over the past 18 months while Rune has regressed, which is why the Italian is such a heavy favorite in this match, but there has been little daylight in the head-to-head history between these two young stars. All four of their previous matches have gone to a deciding set, with the 21-year-old Rune winning once in 2022 and again in 2023 before the 23-year-old Sinner responded with a win later in 2023 and a victory in 2024. Sinner is the world No. 1 and has a 17-match winning streak going at hard-court Grand Slams, but Rune has the game to hang with him and can play freely as the underdog -- a role in which the Dane notched wins at Masters 1000 events over Novak Djokovic in both 2022 and 2023.
Honorable Mention
Alex Michelsen (+270) vs. Alex de Minaur
Australian Open Odds: Lock It In
Ben Shelton (-165) vs. Gael Monfils
Shelton is like the Monfils of the next generation, blending elite athleticism and power with natural showmanship and charisma. As the more established star, the 38-year-old Monfils will have the crowd in his corner, but that shouldn't bother the 22-year-old Shelton, who gained plenty of experience playing in hostile environments during his college tennis stint at Florida. The 20th-ranked Shelton is the favorite to advance to his second career hard-court Grand Slam semifinal out of this section of the draw, which has been cleared of all other seeded players, while Monfils has also been to the semis of a hard-court major only once, and that came back at the 2016 U.S. Open. In fact, this fourth-round appearance is already the furthest the veteran Frenchman has been at a Grand Slam since a quarterfinal showing at the 2022 Australian Open. Both players are capable of taking care of their serve efficiently, but Shelton's willingness to get on the front foot could prove to be the difference on these fast courts against Monfils, whose natural tendency is to defend deep behind the baseline.
Elina Svitolina (-185) vs. Veronika Kudermetova
Svitolina flashed her vintage top-10 form in a 2-6, 6-4, 6-0 third-round win over No. 4 seed Jasmine Paolini, and the Ukrainian has a better chance of keeping her Australian Open run going than does Svitolina's husband Monfils. Kudermetova is the bigger hitter between these two, but the inconsistent Russian has slipped to 75th in the rankings and is past the second round of a Grand Slam for the first time since the 2022 U.S. Open, as she has a tendency to beat herself with errors. Svitolina's superior consistency and comfort in the second week of Grand Slam events should prove to be the difference in this match. Both of their previous encounters were narrow Kudermetova wins, but they haven't met since 2021, and Kudermetova's level has declined noticeably in the meantime.
Honorable Mention
Iga Swiatek (-5000) vs. Eva Lys
Australian Open Predictions: Value Bets
Madison Keys (+125) vs. Elena Rybakina
Rybakina would be the clear favorite in this match if fully healthy, but the No. 6 seed was struggling with a back injury in her 6-3, 6-4 third-round win over Dayana Yastremska, who just couldn't make enough balls to capitalize on the injury. Keys is also a power player but doesn't spray the ball nearly as much as Yastremska, and the 14th-ranked American has been in fine form to begin 2025, posting five top-20 wins during her 10-1 start to the year, including a 6-4, 6-4 third-round victory over compatriot Danielle Collins here. Keys is no stranger to playing in the second week of a major, having reached the quarterfinals or better at 10 previous Grand Slams in her career, including two Australian Open semifinals. Rybakina and Keys have split four previous head-to-head meetings, with Rybakina winning the last two, but the pendulum's likely to swing back to Keys unless Rybakina's back to full fitness.
Emma Navarro (-115) vs. Daria Kasatkina
Navarro has been advancing by the skin of her teeth so far, being pushed to at least 6-4 in the third set in each of her previous three matches here. The No. 8 seed's ability to win close matches should give her confidence in the big moments here, and Kasatkina's underwhelming serve will leave the door open for Navarro to string together multi-game runs should those be required for another comeback. There isn't much separating these two in the rankings, but Kasatkina's best results have come on other surfaces, as the Russian came into this tournament with a 19-19 career hard-court Grand Slam record, and this is Kasatkina's fist time in the Australian Open Round of 16 in her 10th appearance. Navarro's 8-1 in her last nine Grand Slams matches since the start of the U.S. Open, showing significantly greater comfort on hard courts.
Honorable Mention
Learner Tien (+100) vs. Lorenzo Sonego
