This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The first round of the French Open continues Monday from the clay courts of Paris. A few former world No. 1 players could be facing early exits, while some of Monday's matchups may go very differently here on clay than they would have on other surfaces. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the French Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous clay court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
French Open Picks: Upset Alert
Bianca Andreescu (+255) vs. Sara Sorribes Tormo
Andreescu will have a lot of rust to shake off in her first match since August, but there's no question the oft-injured Canadian is the far more talented of these two players. She won the 2019 US Open and has been ranked as high as No. 4 in the world. Bibi's lengthy injury history has sapped some of her power, but she's still only 23 years old and has an exceptional mind for the game, touch and competitiveness. Andreescu will dictate the rallies against the light-hitting Sorribes Tormo, and the odds for this match would probably be reversed if Andreescu was in form.
Dominik Koepfer (+360) vs. Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev is the most vulnerable of the top men's seeds at this tournament, as his clay court results have left a lot to be desired over the years. The fifth-ranked Russian has lost in the first round in five of his previous seven French Open appearances, including last year. Koepfer isn't in Medvedev's weight class on other surfaces, but the German is most comfortable on clay and is currently playing some of his best tennis at age 30. Koepfer's lone career Masters 1000 quarterfinal came on clay, and he's currently ranked 67th after reaching a career high of No. 49 in March. Medvedev leads their head-to-head 3-0, but all three of those encounters came on Medvedev's preferred hard court surface.
Honorable Mention
Hugo Gaston (+195) vs. Ben Shelton
French Open Odds: Lock It In
Alexander Zverev (-360) vs. Rafael Nadal
This is undoubtedly the premier matchup of the first round, as Zverev has legitimate title aspirations coming off a Masters 1000 title in Rome on clay while Nadal is a 14-time French Open champion with a 112-3 record at this event. This is a rematch of the 2022 French Open semifinal, in which these players were neck and neck when Zverev suffered a devastating ankle injury. The 27-year-old Zverev has since returned to pre-injury form, while the 37-year-old Nadal is a shell of his former self due to a hip injury that has cost him most of the last two years. Nadal's just 7-4 in 2024, while Zverev's 28-9. At this stage of their respective careers, it would be shocking to see Nadal pull this upset off, even with the crowd in the clay-court GOAT's corner in what's expected to be Nadal's final French Open appearance.
Elina Svitolina (-350) vs. Karolina Pliskova
This is a clash between two of the top performers on the WTA Tour over the past decade without a Grand Slam title to their names, but Svitolina seems to have much more left in the tank at age 29 than Pliskova has at 32, plus Svitolina's game is much better suited for clay. Svitolina has reached the French Open quarterfinals four times, including last year, and the No. 15 seed is coming off a strong showing in Rome, where she pushed world No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka to a third-set tiebreak in the Round of 16. Pliskova has dropped to No. 51 in the rankings, and the big server has always preferred faster surfaces, with a 14-12 record at the French Open compared to 73-32 at the other three majors. Outside of a semifinal showing at Roland Garros in 2017, Pliskova hasn't been past the third round here. Pliskova won the first five times these two played, but Svitolina has won their last four meetings while taking eight of nine sets over that span.
Honorable Mention
Anastasia Potapova (-360) vs. Kamilla Rakhimova
French Open Predictions: Value Bets
Matteo Arnaldi (+120) vs. Arthur Fils
This has quietly turned into an entertaining rivalry, as the 23-year-old Arnaldi and 19-year-old Fils have played three times in just over a year, with the Italian claiming all three matches. Arnaldi triumphed 6-2 in the third set on clay in the qualifying of Madrid last year, outlasted Fils 6-4 in the fifth at the 2023 US Open and won 6-3, 6-4 on the hard courts of Miami this year. The French crowd will be in Fils' corner, but Arnaldi's head-to-head edge should give the Italian a nice comfort level in this match, plus Arnaldi has been the better clay-court player in 2024. Arnaldi is 5-4 in ATP Tour-level matches on clay this year, while Fils is 5-8.
Dusan Lajovic (-170) vs. Roman Safiullin
Lajovic has been best on clay throughout his career, and 2024 has been no different, as the 33-year-old Serb is 9-6 on this surface and just 3-5 elsewhere. Safiullin has a 19-spot edge in the rankings at No. 42, but the Russian is more comfortable on faster surfaces, as his ranking is largely supported by a quarterfinal result at Wimbledon last year. Safiullin is just 6-11 in 2024, including 1-4 on clay.
Honorable Mention
Diane Parry (-175) vs. Fiona Ferro
