This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The men's and women's semifinals of the Cincinnati Open are on the docket Sunday. A top men's player will look to turn around an unfavorable head-to-head against his opponent, while another will look to draw on his edge in success in the latter stages of big tournaments. Court conditions and recent form are the major storylines that could dictate the outcomes of the women's semifinals, which feature three of the top six seeds.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's and women's singles matches at the Cincinnati Open are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Cincinnati Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Aryna Sabalenka (+160) vs. Iga Swiatek
Swiatek leads the head-to-head between these two top-three staples from recent years 8-3 overall, but these conditions definitively favor the bigger-hitting Sabalenka. The Belarusian has won the last two Australian Opens, where the fast hard-court conditions are most similar of the four Grand Slams to those at Cincinnati. This is Sabalenka's third consecutive semifinal appearance at this tournament, further illustrating that she excels in these conditions, while Swiatek's into the Cincinnati semifinals for just the second time in six tries.
Cincinnati Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Jannik Sinner (-200) vs. Alexander Zverev
Sinner has a sparkling 26-2 hard-court record in 2024 and just avenged last week's Canadian Open loss to Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals here. The world No. 1 has taken his game to the next level in 2024, so his 1-4 record against Zverev, all from 2020-2023, isn't as much of a red flag as it would be in most circumstances. Zverev's 23-7 record on hard courts in 2024 isn't bad, but Sinner's superior forehand should prove to be the difference in this battle between great movers for their size with excellent serves and backhands.
Cincinnati Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Paula Badosa (-110) vs. Jessica Pegula
Both of these players are playing their best tennis of the year. Pegula just won the Canadian Open and is on an eight-match winning streak, but Badosa has been almost as hot. Badosa won the Citi Open in the preceding week and has a 10-1 record since the start of that tournament. The Spaniard climbed to No. 2 in the rankings before injuries set her back, and Badosa finally seems to be returning to that level despite currently being ranked 36th, while Pegula generally struggles against the highest level of competition. The sixth-ranked American has a 0-6 career Grand Slam quarterfinal record and doesn't have a top-20 win during her current winning streak. Pegula won both previous meetings between these two, but one was via retirement and the other was on clay last year, when Badosa was in far inferior form compared to the past few weeks.
Holger Rune (-165) vs. Frances Tiafoe
Tiafoe has come alive during the summer hard-court swing, but Rune has had more success in the stretch run of big tournaments in his young career. This is only Tiafoe's second career Masters 1000 level semifinal, and he lost in this round on the previous occasion while also falling in the semis of the 2022 U.S. Open at the Grand Slam level. Rune is 3-0 in Masters 1000 semifinals in his young career, all in the last two years. The 21-year-old Dane won a hard-court Masters 1000 title in Paris in 2022, which is also on hard courts that play fast, albeit indoors. Both of these players have had down years in 2024 but are rounding into form, and Rune has shown a far higher ceiling, with a career-high ranking of No. 4 compared to Tiafoe's No. 10. Rune also currently holds an 11-spot edge in the rankings at No. 16. This will be the first head-to-head meeting between these two.
