This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Third-round play at the Australian Open continues Saturday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, which will be Friday night for American viewers. A pair of favorites on the men's side who have struggled against unseeded opponents could be in trouble in their first clashes with fellow seeds, while head-to-head history dictates the favorite in an otherwise even matchup between two women who both usually expect to make it well past the third round in majors. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Picks: Upset Alert
Cameron Norrie (+210) vs. Casper Ruud
Neither of these top-20 seeds have looked particularly strong in this tournament, as Ruud required a match tiebreak to get past Max Purcell in his last match, while Norrie had to fight back from a two-set deficit against Giulio Zeppieri. Ruud prefers slower courts, as he had a sub-.500 hard-court record in 2023. Even with a trip to the final of the 2022 US Open, he is just 19-14 in Grand Slams other than the French Open. Norrie is into the third round for the 11th time in his last 14 slams, so while his ceiling can be limited at times, the 19th-seeded Brit looks like an even matchup for the 11th-seeded Norwegian on this surface. Ruud leads their head-to-head 3-0, but all three of those matches came in 2021 and 2022, when Ruud was playing at a higher level on this surface than he has shown over the past year.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (+330) vs. Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev hasn't looked sharp at all down under, dropping the opening set to unheralded Frenchman Terence Atmane in the first round and coming two points from defeat against Emil Ruusuvuori in the second round before ultimately climbing out of a two-set hole in a match that ended at 3:40 a.m. local time. Even if he manages to get his rest and recovery schedule back on track, Medvedev will need to raise his level to keep progressing. The No. 3 seed's first two opponents had zero combined Grand Slam third-round appearances, while this is Auger-Aliassime's ninth major third round, and the Canadian has won the last seven after dropping his first. FAA has fallen to No. 30 in the rankings after a down year in 2023, but he had become a top-10 staple over the prior two years and is likely to bounce back since he's still only 23 years old. Medvedev has a 6-0 head-to-head edge, but two of those matches were as close as it gets, including a 2022 Australian Open quarterfinal in which Medvedev dug out of a two-set hole and saved a match point.
Honorable Mention
Oceane Dodin (+250) vs. Clara Burel
Australian Open Odds: Lock It In
Tommy Paul (-285) vs. Miomir Kecmanovic
Paul is 8-1 in his last nine Australian Open matches, as the courts here fit his aggressive, well-rounded style nicely. The 14th-seeded American's success at this tournament was preceded by a 2022 loss to Kecmanovic, who has a 2-1 head-to-head edge, but Paul's lone win came in 2023 after Paul took his game to the next level. Kecmanovic has struggled to string together wins for the better part of a year, with a 19-24 record since mid-April. The Serb was pushed to the limit in the second round by Jan-Lennard Struff, winning 11-9 in the match tiebreak, while Paul needed only four sets to defeat an arguably even more dangerous opponent in Jack Draper.
Qinwen Zheng (-600) vs. Yafan Wang
After making her first Grand Slam quarterfinal at the US Open, the 12th-seeded Zheng has a realistic path to the semifinals after the unexpected second-round exits of No. 3 seed Elena Rybakina and No. 5 seed Jessica Pegula. Her compatriot Wang is having a nice tournament, having notched consecutive three-set upset wins over Sorana Cirstea and Emma Raducanu, but Zheng is currently playing at a significantly higher level than either of those two players. The 29-year-old Wang has never been ranked higher than 47th, while the 21-year-old Zheng could crack the top 10 by the end of this tournament.
Honorable Mention
Alexander Zverev (-650) vs. Alex Michelsen
Australian Open Predictions: Value Bets
Victoria Azarenka (+115) vs. Jelena Ostapenko
These two players have similar styles, making up for underwhelming serves with elite return games while pushing opponents around with easy power off both wings. Naturally, two of their previous matches have come down to the wire, finishing 7-5 in the third set. All three of those matches went to Azarenka, though, as she has had Ostapenko's number over the years, with their most recent clash coming two weeks ago in Brisbane. This one is close to a toss-up as well, but Azarenka's head-to-head edge coupled with her superior Australian Open results (two titles and a 2023 semifinal) suggest the No. 18 seed should be viewed as the favorite against the 11th-seeded Ostapenko, who has an underwhelming 13-8 career Australian Open record.
Hubert Hurkacz (-170) vs. Ugo Humbert
These two are only 11 spots apart in the rankings and less than 18 months apart in age, but the ninth-ranked Hurkacz has a major edge in big-match experience and career accolades over the 20th-ranked Humbert. Hurkacz has a pair of hard-court Masters 1000 titles under his belt, including Shanghai three months ago, and he's a former Wimbledon semifinalist, while Humbert has a 13-20 career Grand Slam record. Hurkacz also leads their head-to-head 2-0.
Honorable Mention
Tallon Griekspoor (-160) vs. Arthur Cazaux
