This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Day 4 of the French Open was a mixed bag for us, though we did end up hitting our third sizeable underdog of the tournament, as Juan Pablo Varillas came back from a two-set deficit to defeat veteran Roberto Bautista Agut. While nothing quite matched the drama we saw on Tuesday, players are getting more time on the court, which means they are compiling data we can use as the tournament moves forward. As always, all Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but prospective bettors should feel free to search for the best lines available for these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites.
As a reminder, the men play best-of-five-set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. In order to make our picks, we consider things like career records at Roland Garros, recent form, and head-to-head match scores against an opponent where available. We will highlight underdogs in the first section labeled "Upset Alert," while significant favorites will be listed in the "Lock it in" section. Finally, we'll take a look at players who can be had at a bargain in the "Value Bet" section.
Upset Alert
Max Purcell (+210) vs. Yoshihito Nishioka
Lack of play on the dirt for both competitors makes this one a bit difficult to read, but Purcell looks to be far more match-ready, having toed the service line in 49 contests. By contrast, Nishioka has played just 21 matches all season, logging a record of 11-10 over that span. Purcell has also bested the Japanese player in their only meeting on clay, dispatching him in three sets when the two met in Tallahassee in 2019. Purcell has been an absolute dynamo on the Challenger circuit this year, winning 34 of 41 matches and taking home three titles along the way. The Australian has shown that his power can translate to a softer surface, which should let him dictate the action, as his opponent played a tough five-set match against J.J. Wolf in the first round.
Kayla Day (+320) vs. Madison Keys
It's difficult to trust Keys as a big favorite in all but the most advantageous matchups, as the American player tends to let errors compound on themselves until her back is against the wall. This was the case in her first-round match against Kaia Kanepi, despite the fact that she recovered nicely to take the final set by a score of 6-1. Day has been on a roll of late, winning seven of her last eight matches, including her victory in Round 1 against Kristina Mladenovic. The 23-year-old has notched a 16-7 record on clay this year and will be able to match the power of Keys on the ground.
Honorable Mention
Xinyu Wang (+180) vs. Rebecca Peterson
Lock it in
Grigor Dimitrov (-220) vs. Emil Ruusuvuori
Now an elder statesman on Tour, Dimitrov has shown that he can still compete at the highest level in 2023, as he currently holds a winning record on both clay and hard courts for the first time in three years. The Bulgarian has notched some quality pelts along the way, taking out the World No. 7 Taylor Fritz in Geneva. Ruusuvuori tends to work hard whether he wins or loses, as evidenced by the five sets he needed to dispatch the No. 68 ranked Gregoire Barrere in the first round. Dimitov should simply be too much for the Finnish player in this one, hitting his opponent off the court to pick up the victory.
Thiago Seyboth Wild (-270) vs. Guido Pella
Conventional wisdom dictates that a player like Wild will have an adrenaline dump after his stunning upset victory over Daniil Medvedev, but Pella would need a substantial letdown from the Brazilian to find success, as he has notched just a 3-4 record on clay this season. Veteran savvy was enough to get him past Quentin Halys in Round 1, but the Argentine will now face an opponent who has logged a robust 37-10 mark on the dirt this year. Neither man is in an ideal spot after playing tough five-set matches but comfortability with the surface should help win the day for Wild, who will be able to move along with Pella on the court.
Honorable Mention
Taylor Fritz (-800) vs. Arthur Rinderknech
Value Bets
Nicolas Jarry (-130) vs. Tommy Paul
Jarry is on course to have the best season of his career, as he currently sits at a career-best ATP ranking of 35. The Chillean is 19-7 on clay this season and has won his last six matches in a row, including his second Tour title of the year in Geneva. Interestingly, Paul has beaten Jarry on clay in the past, but that match came back in 2014, and Paul's advancement to the second round in Paris doesn't negate his lack of match play on the surface. I expect Jarry to take control as the much more experienced player on the soft stuff, which should lead to a spot in the third round.
Aslan Karatsev (-115) vs. Frances Tiafoe
Seyboth Wild isn't the only player in this tournament to beat Medvedev as a big underdog, as Karatsev pulled off that feat during his run to the semifinals in Rome. The 29-year-old will mark our second attempt to wager against "Big Foe," but unlike Filip Krajinovic, Karastev has the power to fight back against the American and not get bullied off the court. While he may have logged a win, Tiafoe remains just 3-8 at Roland Garros in his career, and will have his hands full with an opponent who can play an all-court game.
Honorable Mention
Petra Martic (-115) vs. Sara Sorribes Tormo
