This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Serie A continues this weekend with four matches Friday and six on Saturday. Atalanta are the biggest favorite at -270 to win, closely followed by AC Milan at -240, while league leaders Inter Milan are -175 away favorites against Genoa. The slate is highlighted by Saturday afternoon's fixture between second-place Juventus and sixth-place Roma.
Italian Serie A Best Bets
Fiorentina to beat Torino +110
Fiorentina have been one of the major stories in Serie A this season, sitting in fifth entering the weekend. Vincenzo Italiano's side come into the match with three wins, a draw and a loss in their last five while Torino enter with two wins, two draws and a loss. While Torino are not a poor side, Fiorentina hold the more impressive goal differential, plus-eight compared to minus-two and have an impressive home record of five wins, two losses and a draw with one of the losses coming against Juventus. By comparison, Torino have won just twice on the road with the wins being against bottom-of-the-table Salernitana and mid-table Lecce.
Giacomo Bonaventura's inclusion in Friday's lineup would boost my confidence in this bet, but I'm happy to take plus odds on Fiorentina at home. I als expect this to be a lower scoring affair, so a longer shot parlay of Fiorentina to win plus under 2.5 goals at roughly +310 odds is also in play.
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SGP: Inter Milan to beat Genoa + Over 1.5 goals = +103
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Inter Milan have been my favorite team to bet this season because they're remarkably consistent and one of the best teams in Europe. They're four points clear at the top of the table and I like them build on their point total by beating Genoa despite being away from home. The moneyline odds aren't great, but adding in an over 1.5 goals gets you better odds.
While Genoa don't give up a ton of goals, Inter score for fun with their 41 goals the most in Serie A by 10 ahead of their Milan counterparts. Lautaro Martinez and his league-leading 15 goals is questionable for Friday's match, but Marcus Thuram is tied for third in the league with seven goals and Marko Arnautovic (who would start if Martinez can't go) assisted last time out against Lecce. This exact bet has hit in 12 of Inter's 17 league matches, as they've scored at least two goals in six of their last seven.
Juventus vs. Roma Both Teams to Score = Yes +116
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The perception of this match is that it'll be a defensive affair, but if you look at the numbers you may be surprised that these teams have combined for 56 goals this season. Both Jose Mourinho and Maximiliano Allegri enjoy parking the bus and playing defensively, especially in big matches, but with Romelu Lukaku back for this match and the hopeful inclusions of Paulo Dybala, Federico Chiesa and Dusan Vlahovic, I like both team's chances to find the back of the net.
While I don't think this ends in a shootout, a 1-1 draw feels like a fair finish. It's hard to pick a winner in this match and it's also hard to find value for things like both teams to score 'No' at -148, but if you think there's only one goal in this match, +160 for under 1.5 goals is also a tempting bet.
Serie A Betting Picks for Matchday 18
- Fiorentina to beat Torino +110
- SGP: Inter Milan to beat Genoa + Over 1.5 Goals = +103
- Juventus vs. Roma Both Teams to Score = YES +116
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