This article is part of our Football Predictions series.
Brighton look to beat Newcastle for a third time this season in a pivotal match in the race for Champions League.
The Seagulls needed some late drama last weekend to beat West Ham and former manager Graham Potter, but the win keeps their small hopes of qualifying for European football alive. Fabian Hurzler has kept the Seagulls in striking distance all season and is one of the few managers who has gotten the better of Eddie Howe.
Newcastle dominated Ipswich Town last weekend to move into third place in the table. However, the race for Champions League football is incredibly tight and the Magpies will need to continue picking up points. They've lost five times at St. James' Park this season with two of them coming against Brighton, so they will be looking for revenge Sunday.
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Premier League Best Bets for Brighton vs. Newcastle
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
Alexander Isak keeps finding the score sheet every game because he's one of the best strikers in the world.
He's bagged 22 goals in the Premier League and scored in the previous meeting with Brighton. He has every finish in his locker, but he can also play as a transition striker and as an effective target man when Newcastle are trying to break down low blocks.
Isak is averaging a 3.15 shots per 90 minutes and also has a 0.69 xG per-90 minute scoring rate, which is third best in the Premier League.
I like the value on him to find the back of the net at +110.
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Betting on Player to Score or Assist
Brighton love to target their forwards with direct balls and one of the key matchups is going to be Kaoru Mitoma against Kieran Trippier.
Trippier is not the best defender at this stage in his career and Mitoma is one of the best dribbler/creators in the Premier League. This season, the Japanese international is averaging 1.75 successful take ons per 90 minutes and is averaging almost two carries into the penalty area per 90 minutes.
He's good at using his dribbling to beat defenders and either getting a shot off or finding a teammate in the box.
He has a 0.47 xG + xA per-90 minute rate and has two goals in his last two appearances.
I like the value on him to score or assist at +125.
Betting on Spread
There's a reason Brighton have beaten Newcastle twice this season.
They are one of the few teams that set up well to play against Newcastle's high press. Most of the teams in the Premier League are consistently building out of the back, which plays right into Newcastle's hands.
Brighton are different. They like to initially build out of the back, but they use their forwards as target men to try and win one-on-one duels and create transition opportunities. They also have a massive pace advantage over Newcastle's back line, so it's not a shock that they've had a lot of success against the Magpies.
I don't think they should be a home underdog, and I like the value on them for a Draw no Bet at +110.
Brighton vs. Newcastle Betting Picks
- Alexander Isak Anytime Goalscorer (+110)
- Kaoru Mitoma to Score or Assist (+125)
- Brighton Draw no Bet (+110)
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