DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Turkey v. Italy Showdown Preview

Italy are a -190 favorite (up from -167) against Turkey for Friday's Euro 2020 opener, which is being played in Rome. The over/under of 2.5 goals is at +135, and Turkey's odds of scoring at least one goal is +102, meaning Italy are expected to secure a clean sheet.

Italy have allowed one goal in their last 12 matches in all competitions, and that came last October in a draw against the Netherlands. Meanwhile, Turkey's last four matches have come against Moldova, Guinea, Azerbaijan and Latvia, and they beat Netherlands 4-2 before that stretch.

Italy won their Nations League group, allowing two goals in six matches, while Turkey finished last in theirs while conceding eight.

The Favorite

Unfortunately, Italy don't have one dominant set-piece taker, so cash lineups will be hard to lock down until starting XIs are released. Federico Bernardeschi ($9,000) and Domenico Berardi ($10,800) have taken the most set pieces over the last year, but there's a chance neither start. Even if they both start or only one does, there's still likely to be a split role, which makes spending on Berardi a hard strategy.

If neither start, Lorenzo Insigne ($10,400) may draw the most attention since he'll get some set pieces and is most likely to make the score-sheet behind Ciro Immobile ($9,800), who has the highest anytime goal scorer odds. Immobile doesn't have a high floor in a central role, but there's still a chance he's viable in cash games because even if he doesn't score, he could rack up five shots with two on target.

It's reasonable to use four or even five Italians in cash games because in addition to winning matches, they don't allow a ton of opportunities. In their most recent Nations League wins, they allowed one shot on target to Bosnia and Herzegovina and two total shots to Poland (yes, Robert Lewandowski played). 

There are a few routes for this match, with the most likely being Italy winning by one or two goals with a clean sheet. If you don't think Italy's defense is as good as the numbers have been, you could hope for a 1-1 or 2-2 result. For GPP purposes, it may be wise to go for a Turkey 1-0 win, something I'll touch on later.

Italy usually play in a 4-3-3 formation, so their front three will be popular, with Federico Chiesa ($8,600) and Insigne expected to be on the wings and Immobile central. If that's the case, I'd probably avoid the three midfielders in cash games because they won't be worth it. In their most recent friendly, the three forwards had 11 shots compared to two for the midfielders (with only two crosses).

That being the case, I think it's almost a must to have one of Italy's full-backs, no matter the format. I'm less confident paying up for Giovanni Di Lorenzo ($7,400), who is oddly expensive, but neither Emerson ($6,200) nor Alessandro Florenzi ($5,600) will break the bank. Emerson crosses more from open play, but Florenzi is more likely to steal a set piece or two. Either one could be used as a captain in cash games or tournaments because they'll allow you to spend up on the three starting forwards and both are in play for a clean sheet.

The biggest question may be if you should pay for Gianluigi Donnarumma ($7,000). On one hand, he has a great chance for a win and a clean sheet, but on the other, he's unlikely to make more than one save, possibly limiting his upside to around 12 fantasy points. And there's also the chance Turkey score, taking away half his fantasy value.

He's better used in GPPs as a captain with the hope that he makes more than three saves while Hakan Calhanoglu ($8,800) and company unleash numerous shots from distance. It wouldn't be surprising if Donnarumma made four saves to go with a win and clean sheet, but it's not expected.

The Underdog

Even as an underdog, Calhanoglu could be popular because he sends in tons of crosses and is Turkey's main set-piece taker. I'd still be worried that they max out at five corners and Calhanoglu only gets three, which isn't going to be enough. Even against worse teams, Turkey haven't taken a ton of corners, so in order to reach value, Calhanoglu would probably have to draw a few fouls and then take the ensuing set pieces.

Burak Yilmaz ($8,000) should only be considered if you're fading Italy's defense because he won't get many opportunities even as Turkey's best chance to score. Kenan Karaman ($6,000) is kind of in that boat, but there's a chance he takes a role on the wing, and he's at an extreme discount compared to someone like Cengiz Under ($7,800), who at best would split set pieces. Even then, there's no reason to back Under over Yusuf Yazici ($7,200), who is more likely to go a full 90 in addition to splitting set pieces. 

None of those guys will be overly popular in cash games because a third of lineups will probably be banking on an Italy clean sheet. Cengiz Umut Meras ($5,000) had six crosses in their most recent friendly, which is likely why he's Turkey's most expensive defender. In the end, he probably doesn't have a much better floor than Lyon's Zeki Celik ($4,200), who averaged 2.30 crosses and 0.57 shots per 90 minutes in Ligue 1 this past season. 

Of course, you could also back Ugurcan Cakir ($4,600) with the hope that he makes more than five saves. He'd hit value in cash games with five saves, but if this match ends in a scoreless draw due to early nerves, putting him at captain could be a winning strategy.

All signs point to Italy controlling this match, especially at home, but Turkey love to get up and down, and a lot of their Nations League performances showed that, as multiple games finished 3-3. I probably wouldn't bet on that happening, but it's at least in the cards if you don't want to stack Donnarumma with the Italian full-backs.