This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
We're back for another week of Champions League action, which means new opportunities for increasing our soccer-related bankroll on DraftKings after taking our turn with the English Premier League and Major League Soccer.As we had in the first set of fixtures, we have a few lopsided matchups that are ripe for exploiting. Here's a look at the odds table to help us focus on the right games:
Home (win odds) | (draw odds) | Away (win odds) Bayern Munich (1/10) | 9/1 | Dinamo Zagreb (25/1) | |
Zenit St. Petersburg (2/5) | 7/2 | Gent (15/2) | |||
Arsenal (4/9) | 15/4 | Olympiacos (6/1) | |||
Barcelona (4/11) | 4/1 | Bayer Leverkusen (6/1) | |||
Porto (13/8) | 11/5 | Chelsea (9/5) | |||
Lyon (17/10) | 21/10 | Valencia (9/5) | |||
Maccabi Tel Aviv (29/10) | 12/5 | Dynamo Kyiv (even) | |||
BATE (7/2) | 5/2 | Roma (17/20) |
Odds from Paddy Power as of 9:00 p.m. EDT on Sept. 28
As is normally the case with Bayern Munich, they are the solid favorites of the day and we'll have to pay accordingly for their players. That's not to say they aren't worth the price, but we'll have to find some other lower-priced players to fit the Bayern guys in.
One huge note: Lionel Messi will be sidelined for up to eight weeks with a knee injury, which means we won't have to worry about fitting in his $13,500 DraftKings salary. However, there are still plenty of high-four and five-figure players that should be in our lineups. Here are a few players who can help us fit them in:
Goalkeeper
David Ospina ($3,500)
I'm not convinced that Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger goes with Ospina, but it's worth noting that he did start their opening Champions League match against Dinamo Zagreb, a 2-0 defeat. Ospina also started last week's Capital One Cup match against Tottenham, while usual No. 1 Petr Cech started against Leicester City this past weekend in Premier League play. Cech is unquestionably the better of the two options, but if Ospina gets the start, he makes for a tremendous value for the heavily favorited Gunners.
Anthony Lopes ($4,900)
Valencia, despite scoring twice against Zenit in their opening Champions League fixture, have really struggled scoring this season in La Liga, finding the back of the net just three times in six matches. With one goal in three games since the 3-2 loss to Zenit, it's a weak attack worth betting against.
Yury Lodygin ($5,100)
Despite having the same win odds as Arsenal, Zenit's starting goalkeeper is actually priced less than his Gent counterpart, Mats Selz ($5,300). I've written previously that I don't love spending over 10 percent of my budget on a goalkeeper, but Lodygin is the sixth highest priced keeper in a six-game slate, making him a decent value despite the relatively high price.
Other value goalkeepers to consider:Olexandr Rybka ($4,600), Morgan de Sanctis ($5,400)
Defenders
I usually consider $4,000 to be the cutoff for a cheap defender, so while there are plenty of options above that mark that could provide value, it hinders our ability to fit in numerous big guns later on. Here are a few cheaper (call them "value" if it makes you feel better) players that may be able to help:
Cristophe Jallet ($3,900)
Jallet bagged a goal in Lyon's opening Champions League match, though banking on another from a goalkeeper is wishful thinking. However, as mentioned with Lopes above, Lyon have a solid shot at a clean sheet, and Jallet does move up in the attack enough to possibly contribute to a score. Jeremy Morel ($3,500) and Henri Bedimo ($4,000) have split time on the other side of the field in Lyon's eight Ligue 1 matches, with the former the more prolific crosser.
Domenico Criscito ($3,400) and Igor Smolnikov ($3,600)
Stacking a defender with a goalkeeper is always a popular strategy, so going with Lodygin home against Gent allows us to pair him with Criscito (17 crosses in nine league games, according to WhoScored.com) and/or Smolnikov (35 crosses in 10 games).
Danilo Silva ($4,000)
Silva threw in eight crosses in the opening Champions League match and gets an excellent matchup against Maccabi Tel Aviv, who are certainly one of the biggest underdogs the tournament has seen over the past few years.
Adriano ($3,300)
Jordi Alba has missed the last three games with a neck injury, and while he was deemed fit for the match, it's still possible that Adriano could get one more start. The biggest hesitancy here is that Bayer Leverkusen have a number of solid goal scorers, so a clean sheet may not be a guarantee despite the fairly high win odds for Barca.
Other value defenders to consider:Lucas Digne ($3,800), Antunes ($4,100), Juan Bernat ($4,300), Miguel Layun ($3,000)
Midfielders
Alessandro Florenzi ($4,000)
Florenzi became a popular name after he scored this goal against Barcelona in their Champions League opener:
View post on imgur.com
Great goal, but not exactly a score we can expect to happen again. However, the reason why Florenzi is an attractive option is because Roma manager Rudi Garcia may start him as a striker, with Edin Dzeko and Francesco Totti out with injuries.
.@RudiGarcia on a potential change of formation: "We might do that because @Florenzi can do a decent job further forward too." #BATERoma
— AS Roma English (@ASRomaEN) September 28, 2015
$4,000 for a midfielder playing as a forward against BATE, the biggest home underdog of the day, is absolutely worthy of roster consideration.
Douglas Costa ($8,000)
Costa starts up front in the Bayern attack, and he looked to be an incredible value in the opening Champions League slate with a price of only $7,500. Four fantasy points later and people wanted their money back. His price has risen but he's worth every penny, picking up five assists this season, including one in each of his last three Bundesliga games. Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller (more on them later) are the elite goal scorers, but Costa is consistently involved.
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain ($5,800)
Arsenal are likely to have some squad rotation ahead of their huge match against Manchester United at the weekend (which is why Ospina could play), and Oxlade-Chamberlain has a legitimate shot at starting after doing so in their Champions League opener. He's still looking for his first goal of the season, but his considerable speed, especially on the ball, makes him a dangerous attacker on a heavy favorite at a very affordable price.
Willian ($6,100)
Willian has been taking free kicks of late, something we saw Oscar ($7,000) doing earlier this season. The latter has been dealing with an injury of late, and Willian's ability to play centrally or on the wing give him enough versatility that he maintains a spot in the starting XI. Chelsea at Porto isn't an ideal matchup for the Blues, though Porto aren't likely to be a huge defensive stalwart in Champions League play.
Other value midfielders to consider:Oleg Shatov ($5,600), Mathieu Valbuena ($5,400), Oleh Gusev ($4,300)
Forwards
This is where we want to spend our money. While Lionel Messi may not be playing, we've got plenty of upper-tier talent to target.
Robert Lewandowski ($9,900) and Thomas Muller ($10,000)
Lewandowski is the hottest goal scorer in the world right now, bagging seven goals in his last two games. Oh, and he came on as a second-half sub in the first one, when he scored five. Muller is always involved in the Bayern attack, and he takes penalties, and the argument could be made that both should be stacked together with Bayern facing a Dinamo Zagreb side that will surely be overmatched.
Alexis Sanchez ($10,000) and Theo Walcott ($7,500)
Alexis broke out of his Premier League goal-scoring slump in a big way this past weekend, bagging a hat trick against previously unbeaten Leicester City. He is the motor that makes the Gunners go and will surely be a handful for Olympiacos. Walcott has scored in 12 of his last 13 starts in the Premier League, and he'll lead the line thanks to Olivier Giroud's (incredibly stupid) suspension. Sanchez takes many more shots and can provide more peripheral stats, while Walcott offers significant salary savings.
Hulk ($9,300)
Because he plays in Russia, we don't see him all that often, but Hulk completely lives up to his nickname, particularly in the Champions League. His two goals in the opener at Valencia contributed to 34 fantasy points, an upside not a lot of players have. Heading back home to face Gent, Hulk isn't likely to slow down.
If you're looking to spend up at the other positions or are looking for a cheaper flex play, there are a few lower-priced forwards that could certainly return value:
Alexandre Lacazette ($7,200)
Lacazette missed a penalty in the opening Champions League match, but he turned around and scored in his subsequent Ligue 1 tie. The 24-year-old has been a bit slow at the start of the season, but after leading Ligue 1 in goals last year, he has plenty of upside.
Mohamed Salah ($5,200)
Salah has been a consistent starter for Roma this season, but he will likely take on an even bigger attacking role in the absences of Edin Dzeko and Francesco Totti. His floor is somewhat limited, but his ceiling is fairly high for a player at this price, particularly if he can link up with Florenzi. Juan Iturbe ($5,500) is also a potential starter, though he hasn't played nearly enough this season to warrant a Champions League start.
Munir El Haddadi ($5,500)
With Messi out with the knee injury, El Haddadi looks set to start alongside Luis Suarez and Neymar, an incredible spot to be put in, especially when he's priced $5,000 less. And while he doesn't have the upside of the other two (and certainly not of Messi), he could score when the Bayer Leverkusen defenders are doing all they can to keep Suarez and Neymar in front of them.
Kingsley Coman ($5,200)
Coman is a bit of a long shot to start, as his presence in the starting XI would likely mean Arturo Vidal sits, but there's a big case to be made for Coman: Bayern are playing a significantly overmatched opponent, and Coman has two goals and two assists in his last three games. Bayern's Bundesliga match against Mainz this past weekend shows exactly why you can stack all of their attackers into a single lineup:
- Robert Lewandowski: two goals
- Kingsley Coman: one goal, one assist
- Douglas Costa: one assist
- Thomas Muller: penalty attempt (unsuccessful)
Other upper-tier forwards to consider: While Luis Suarez ($10,400) and Neymar ($10,500) provide plenty of firepower, not to mention the Leverkusen duo of Hakan Calhanoglu ($7,500) and Stefan Kiessling ($6,400), and to a lesser extent Javier Chicharito Hernandez ($7,300), I just think there's more upside focusing on the Bayern Munich and Arsenal players. You can extract that these players could be good differential plays given the popularity that the Bayern and Arsenal group will have, but I don't think the upside is as high.
Other value forwards to consider:Pedro ($7,500), Vincent Aboubakar ($7,400), Claudio Beauvue ($6,000), Junior Moraes ($5,700)