This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCHES (EST)
- 10:00 am: Burnley vs. Newcastle United
- 10:00 am: Chelsea vs. AFC Bournemouth
- 10:00 am: Leicester City vs. Norwich City
- 10:00 am: Sheffield United vs. Aston Villa
- 12:30 pm: Southampton vs. West Ham United
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
FORWARDS
Willian, CHE v. BOU ($9,500): Chelsea are the second-biggest favorite on the slate as they host a Bournemouth side that's conceded multiple goals in four of their past five Premier League games, and naturally one of their set-piece takers will be popular. Willian has played a big role on dead balls, though he still shares them with midfielder Mason Mount, who is $1,200 cheaper. The advantage for Willian is that he's forward eligible on a slate with few high-floor forwards, but there is a path to fading him in cash games because of some higher-floor midfielders (including Mount). We also shouldn't ignore that teammate Christian Pulisic ($9,200) has scored at least 9.3 floor points in each of the past three games and Tammy Abraham ($9,700) has the highest anytime goal scorer odds on the slate. Finally, if Callum Hudson-Odoi ($8,200) starts, he might be the best path to the Chelsea attack, as he takes some set pieces and is considerably cheaper among their forwards.
Dwight McNeil, BUR v. NEW ($7,300): McNeil continues to share set pieces, but he's also Burnley's best open-play crosser and now faces a Newcastle side that's allowed the most crosses in the Premier League. This match has the lowest implied goal total, but that shouldn't stop peripheral fantasy points from being scored. McNeil's price is a little elevated for a Burnley forward who doesn't score many goals, but it's tough to find a more reliable forward in his price range.
Miguel Almiron, NEW at BUR ($5,900): The possibility of playing two forwards from the game with the lowest total seems pretty gross, but here we are for those who want to focus on cheaper floors. Almiron still doesn't have a role on set pieces, but he's been contributing across the stat sheet recently, scoring at least 7.3 fantasy points in each of the past three games, a decent return on his Saturday salary. Speaking of lower salaries, there are a few cheaper forwards who are certainly goal threats, including West Ham's Sebastien Haller ($5,500), Norwich City's Teemu Pukki ($5,400), Burnley's Jay Rodriguez ($5,200) and Aston Villa's Wesley Moraes ($4,900).
MIDFIELDERS
James Maddison, LEI v. NOR ($10,300): Maddison has the highest floor of any player on the slate, something you're going to have to pay for since he has the second-highest salary. Teammate Jamie Vardy ($10,800, forward) costs more because of a ridiculous goal-scoring run he's on, finding the back of the net in eight consecutive Premier League matches, bagging 11 goals on 28 shots (19 on target) during that span. His floor continues to be low, but it's tough to argue against his goal-scoring upside, especially with Leicester being the biggest favorite. But this isn't about Vardy, it's about Maddison, who has scored the second-most fantasy points, including the second-most floor points, in the Premier League, and the most among players on Saturday's slate. His basic monopoly of Leicester's set pieces continue to put him in a class by himself, and he figures to be very popular Saturday, especially for those who don't want to pay up for Willian.
James Ward-Prowse, SOU v. WHU ($8,000): Only five players in the Premier League have scored more floor points than Ward-Prowse, who also has two goals and an assist in his last four games. He is Southampton's main set-piece taker and now faces a West Ham side that's conceded multiple goals in five of their last six Premier League games, including four times with three goals allowed. The difficulty with Ward-Prowse is his price; not that he is overpriced for his production, but because he's basically the same as Mount and a bit less than Jack Grealish ($8,700), who both do a bit more in open play. Grealish looks overpriced because of Ward-Prowse and Mount, especially since Aston Villa are away underdogs, but Grealish has a great floor and definite upside to make him an excellent GPP pivot from the other two. Meanwhile, Jonjo Shelvey ($7,000) is a bit less expensive despite scoring in each of his past three games, though his monopoly of set pieces over that span led to only five crosses. In fact, if you're thinking of paying that much for Shelvey, just save a little more and go with Robert Snodgrass ($6,300).
Ryan Fraser, BOU at CHE ($5,300): I was going to highlight Burnley's Jeff Hendrick ($3,300) because he could be sharing set pieces against with McNeil if Ashley Westwood ($4,000) remains sidelined, but I just couldn't stomach the thought even though he probably gets enough points to make his low salary worth taking. Fraser has disappointed in back-to-back games, including last week's against Liverpool, but we're talking about a player who hits $8,000 regularly when he's a home favorite. The matchup is obviously very tough, but Fraser can contribute much more and has GPP upside to make him a worthy consideration in tournaments. If you're looking for cheaper floor, Sean Longstaff ($4,100) could be helpful if he starts and gets set pieces back from Shelvey.
DEFENDERS
Reece James, CHE vs. BOU ($5,300): There are a few expensive defenders worth considering, and James is part of that group because of his attacking upside for a heavy home favorite. Both Leicester City fullbacks -- Ben Chilwell ($5,300) and Ricardo Pereira ($5,600) -- are also in great spots at home against Norwich, and focusing on them instead probably isn't going to hurt much given that no one is likely to be heavily owned over the others. Paying up for Diego Rico ($4,900) or Jetro Willems ($4,800) seems like an unnecessary spend because of their matchups, and while Ryan Bertrand ($5,100) is a home favorite, his price is high enough that you're probably just better off paying for a Leicester or Chelsea fullback. If anything, this doesn't seem like a slate where you want to pay up at both defender spots, and you can probably build higher-floor lineups without a single expensive defender.
Cedric Soares, SOU v. WHU ($4,100): One of the reasons it's unnecessary to pay up for Bertrand is because you can get Cedric for so much less. West Ham have been atrocious defensively while Southampton seem to be putting it together, scoring multiple goals in three of their last four Premier League games. Cedric is a decent crosser who also does defensive work, so he'll provide a nice floor at a reduced price, which allows spending up for forwards and midfielders.
Matthew Lowton, BUR v. NEW ($3,700): The Burnley fullbacks are once again under-priced, as they are home favorites and facing a Newcastle side that leads the league in crosses allowed. The upside isn't high with Lowton or Erik Pieters ($3,800), but their floors are decent and they are certainly capable of making value because their prices are so low for fullbacks.
GOALKEEPER
Kasper Schmeichel, LEI v. NOR ($5,900): Would you pay $5,900 for a midfielder who averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game and hadn't dipped below 6.0 in any start this season? What if they reached double digits in five of their last seven? Of course you would, except we never really consider it for a goalkeeper because of the variance of the position. I actually don't think the optimal build includes paying up for a goalkeeper Saturday, but if you have the money, Schmeichel is the one worth spending it on. If that's not in your budget, Martin Dubravka ($4,400) and Tom Heaton ($4,200) look like the worthwhile punts based on their respective matchups.
