This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
Saturday's four-game slate projects to be a particularly fun one from a DFS perspective. Brighton are the only strong team playing, while the other teams take up seven of the eight spots in the bottom of the Premier League table. West Ham are the biggest favorite hosting Everton, but the Leicester-Brighton matchup has the highest-implied total. I think the matchup between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest could have more goals than the odds suggest. The two have conceded the most goals this season and there were five scored in the first meeting.
MATCHES (ET)
- 10:00 am: AFC Bournemouth vs. Nottingham Forest
- 10:00 am: Leicester City vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
- 10:00 am: Southampton vs. Aston Villa
- 10:00 am: West Ham United vs. Everton
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
FORWARDS
Jarrod Bowen ($8,600, WHU vs. EVE): It feels like I write about this almost every week, but Everton are one of the most fantasy-friendly defenses to attack. They've conceded over 16 shots, 20 crosses, 12 shots assisted, and six corners per match this season. While West Ham have struggled offensively, the matchup and price are right for Bowen this week. He'll take some set pieces and the right-sided corners for West Ham. They are the only team with an implied probability of over 50-percent to win and I think he'll be one of the most popular players in both cash games and GPPs.
Morgan Gibbs-White ($9,400, NOT at BOU): The second forward spot is trickier and if you spend up twice, I prefer Gibbs-White to Pascal Gross ($9,100). On the one hand, Brighton are slight favorites and Gross will take almost all set pieces and penalties for Brighton. On the other hand, his position changes with their formation and he's been starting as a right-back when Alexis Mac Allister and Moises Caicedo start. I think Gibbs-White has more open-play value while also taking most of his team's set pieces and his matchup against Bournemouth is arguably just as good as Gross's against Leicester. Depending on what you want to do at the other positions, I think Jaidon Anthony ($7,500) and Leon Bailey ($7,000) are viable alternatives, but they have no guarantees for set pieces or playing a full 90 minutes.
I don't think I will spend down at second forward in cash games, but Kieffer Moore ($5,000) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($4,800) are good goal-dependent GPP targets. I think it will be popular to pair Che Adams ($6,200) with James Ward-Prowse, as well. That said, I think my favorite tournament target will be Evan Ferguson ($7,200). The 18-year-old appears to be breaking out for Brighton with two goals and two assists in four appearances. He's likely to be subbed off early, but I also think he can also easily outscore the forwards in his price range at low rostership, even if he only plays 70 minutes.
MIDFIELDERS
James Ward-Prowse ($10,300, SOU vs. AVL): This is a hefty price tag for Ward-Prowse, especially if he plays as a more defensive midfielder. But he played in an attacking role in Southampton's 2-1 win against Everton last week and he told the media afterwards that new manager Nathan Jones has given him a "license to get forward and into the box." While you'll want to keep an eye on Southampton's formation, I think Ward-Prowse and his set-piece monopoly is worth this price if he plays as an attacking midfielder. You can also look to Demarai Gray ($8,800) for $1,500 cheaper. He splits set pieces when Dwight McNeil ($6,200) is on the field but will have a monopoly if McNeil doesn't start. His recent form rivals Ward-Prowse's with 21 crosses, seven shots and two goals in his last three starts. Two tournament-only plays I am interested in are Harvey Barnes ($6,700) and Lucas Paqueta ($7,300). Both have decent odds to score a goal along with passable floors in open play.
Marc Albrighton ($5,700, LEI vs. BHA): You can try to play both Ward-Prowse and Gray in cash games, but that requires a punt at forward where I think there is little value compared to the midfielders. Albrighton might only play 70 minutes but will take Leicester's corners while on the field and he has logged an outrageous 25 crosses in 180 minutes this season. If you need to save even more salary at midfield or your utility spot, there are some solid options priced $4,000 and below. Mohamed Elyounoussi ($4,000) is favorably priced as a right-midfielder and Tomas Soucek ($3,400) often finds himself in favorable goalscoring positions as a defensive midfielder. Finally, Adam Lallana ($3,600) is almost certain to be subbed off around 65 minutes, but Brighton's matchup against Leicester has the highest total on the slate and he has been starting in an attacking central role.
DEFENDERS
Aaron Cresswell ($5,600, WHU vs. EVE): If you have the salary to spend up at defender, Cresswell will take the left-sided set pieces for West Ham in a great matchup against Everton where I'd expect him to rack up some open-play crosses, as well. Nottingham Forest's Renan Lodi ($5,100) has been taking a couple set pieces ,as well, for a slightly cheaper price. At $4,600, Kyle Walker-Peters seems a bit too expensive if he plays as a full-back, but he would be a solid play if he plays as a wing-back.
Seamus Coleman ($3,300, EVE at WHU): Everton deployed Coleman as a wing-back last weekend and he is underpriced should that happen again. Even if he plays as a right-back in a back four, I think he provides some necessary salary relief. Otherwise, Ashley Young ($4,100) is reasonably priced if he starts, though Matty Cash appears to be healthy again. Lyanco ($2,900) is a center-back by trade, but played as a right-back last week, so he might be a pure punt option in case you need a sub-$3,000 defender.
GOALKEEPER
Gavin Bazunu ($4,600, SOU vs. AVL): Lukasz Fabianski ($5,400) has the best win and clean sheet odds by a solid margin. On the other hand, West Ham have kept only three clean sheets this season, so it is certainly not a priority to spend up for him. I'm highlighting Bazunu since he is playing at home and I am unlikely to roster Aston Villa players in cash games. In a similar spirit, Danny Ward ($4,300) is the cheapest home goalkeeper and he makes plenty of sense if you are not targeting Brighton players.
