This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.
Real Madrid have an implied win probability just below 50 percent at home against Bayern Munich. The aggregate score is 2-2 and Madrid have a 1.85 implied goal total, which is about a half goal higher than the visiting Bayern Munich (1.30).
3:00 pm: Real Madrid vs. Bayern Munich
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
DraftKings Showdown DFS Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday UCL Cheat Sheet
BAYERN MUNICH TEAM PREVIEW
| Player | DK Pos. | Flex Salary | Notes |
| Manuel Neuer | GK | $4,800 | Neuer has decent save upside in this matchup. |
| Noussair Mazraoui | D | $4,600 | Mazraoui is a sub risk and doesn't have the best open-play floor, but he's an interesting GPP option. |
| Eric Dier | D | $3,800 | Somehow in the year 2024, Dier is starting in a meaningful UCL semi-final fixture. |
| Matthijs De Ligt | D | $3,800 | |
| Joshua Kimmich | M | $8,800 | Kimmich has been the primary set-piece taker in recent Bayern fixtures. Raphael Guerreiro is out, so he should have a near monopoly of set pieces. |
| Konrad Laimer | M | $4,400 | Laimer assisted and played 90 minutes last week and like many regulars, was rested in league play over the weekend. |
| Leon Goretzka | M | $4,000 | Goretzka has averaged six floor points in his last 10 Bundesliga appearances. He was frustratingly subbed at halftime in the reverse fixture, though it was for the now-injured Guerreiro. |
| Thomas Muller | M/F | $7,600 | All of the Bayern forwards except Kane are sub risks, but Muller played 80 minutes in the first leg. |
| Jamal Musiala | F | $8,600 | Musiala has a great open-play floor and seems most likely to play 90 of the Bayern attacking midfielders. |
| Leroy Sane | M/F | $6,800 | Sane scored an incredible goal in the first leg and is at least $1,000 too cheap. |
| Harry Kane | F | $10,200 | Kane is on penalties and perhaps some direct free kicks. |
Bayern managed to get a 2-1 lead at home until conceding a penalty in the 83rd minute. While they threatened Madrid for portions of the first leg, it will be a much tougher task to beat Real Madrid on the road.
Most of the key Bayern outfielders were rested in some way over the weekend (except for Kane, who plays nearly every minute of every match). This combined with solid minutes for their attackers in the first leg makes me feel confident enough that options like Sane and Muller will play at least 75 minutes should they start as expected.
Guerriero is out after sustaining an ankle injury over the weekend. This means Kimmich will take most of Bayern's set pieces. It's always possible someone like Sane takes a few, but I don't consider this likely.
REAL MADRID TEAM PREVIEW
| Player | DK Pos. | Flex Salary | Notes |
| Andriy Lunin | GK | $6,600 | Bayern showed an ability to trouble the Real Madrid defense, so Lunin has some save upside while priced as a favorite. |
| Ferland Mendy | D | $3,200 | |
| Nacho | D | $3,600 | I'm not sure why Real Madrid defenders are generally cheaper than Bayern options, but I prefer them as favorites at home. |
| Antonio Rudiger | D | $3,400 | |
| Dani Carvajal | D | $5,200 | I'm not sure Carvajal has a great floor in this matchup against Bayern's wingers, but he certainly has assists in his range of outcomes. |
| Toni Kroos | M | $7,000 | Kroos received a price increase after a strong display and incredible assist in the reverse fixture. He is not a lock at that price due to sub risk and dependence on set pieces. |
| Aurelien Tchouameni | M | $4,200 | Tchouameni is a decent punt and should play 90 minutes in the midfield if he starts. |
| Federico Valverde | M | $5,400 | Valverde is always capable of the spectacular but probably needs a competitive Bayern display in order to push him into an attacking role. |
| Jude Bellingham | M | $8,400 | Bellingham hasn't been in his best form lately, but this is a great price for his ceiling and he'll be popular in GPPs. He's averaged six floor points in his last 10 starts. |
| Vinicius Junior | M/F | $12,200 | Vini has received a major price increase. It's deserved and he's still a top play. |
| Rodrygo | M/F | $9,000 | I said it last week, but Rodrygo is an interesting contrarian GPP captain. |
Real Madrid also nearly completely rotated their team over the weekend, and only defenders Nacho and Carvajal started and played 90 minutes (Carvajal was susended in the first leg). Thibaut Courtois returned from injury, though it's still expected Lunin will start.
Kroos was completely rested and took set pieces while he played 75 minutes in the first leg. At $7,000, Kroos is not a comfortable click in cash games or GPPs, since he depends on set pieces in order to achieve his floor.
CASH-GAME STRATEGY
I don't see a crystal clear route in cash games. I think the main question of the slate from a cash point of view is whether or not Kane is worth his expensive $10,200 price tag in a difficult matchup. To his credit, Kane routinely hits 10-point fantasy floors, but his anytime goal scoring odds of +120 are not as good as they tend to be in more favorable matchups.
I think Vinicius is the best projected option overall, but at his price, it's difficult to captain him. You'll have to fade one of Kane, Kroos or Kimmich if you do so. I'm not so keen on fading players with set pieces and fading Kane leaves me with salary I am not quite sure what to do with. I like Sane, but he hasn't had much of a floor recently. Musiala and Bellingham are interesting options, though Bellingham hasn't been in peak form and Musiala is playing as an underdog.
Captaining Kroos or Kimmich frees up the salary to avoid this dilemma, but you don't get to enjoy the fantastic floor/ceiling combination of Vinicius. This will be a difficult decision that I probably won't completely settle on until before lineups lock.
As for punts, Goretzka only played the first half of the reverse fixture, but Guerreiro, who will miss this match, subbed on for him. I think he is a reasonable option, as is Tchouameni. If I need more salary, I'm fine punting with Mendy or a Madrid center-back.
TOURNAMENT STRATEGY
I think this is a fun slate for tournaments, especially compared to Tuesday's PSG vs. Dortmund showdown where the entire field was on similar lineups. There are viable options for just about any game script in this matchup.
Vinicius will be a chalk captain choice, but I think that designation is completely deserved. I'm fine fading either Kane or Kroos in lineups where I captain Vinicius so that I can access different combinations of both Bayern and Real Madrid attackers.
Real Madrid often seem unbeatable in Champions League play, but I'm fine with taking a contrarian approach and building 1-0 lineups where Bayern somehow keep a clean sheet. I think 1-0 builds often get overdone for teams that are favorites, but I think there is a chance that this tactic will not be utilized frequently enough in GPPs.
Lineup Ideas (GPP only)
Vinicius CPT - Kroos - Kimmich: This is a pretty simple start that fades Kane so that you can captain the best overall play in Vinicius while maintaining access to options like Rodrygo or Musiala. I expect lineups with this template that also include Lunin to be popular in GPPs. I'll look to play 1-0 lineups in Real Madrid's favor in a different way.
Rodrygo CPT - Vinicius: Rodrygo has a great ceiling and is certainly capable of a brace or a goal and assist performance in this matchup. He is priced between Bellingham and Vinicius, so I don't think he will be a particularly popular captain choice.
Bellingham CPT - Lunin: Bellingham is one of the slate's most likely goalscorers and he's priced a bit cheaper than I'd expect. I'd like to play a less popular captain in lineups where I speculate that Madrid will keep a clean sheet so that I am not flipping random 2v2s against dozens of lineups with the same initial four players.
Neuer CPT - Kane - Kimmich: Captaining Neuer gives you plenty of salary to play whatever attacking options on Bayern and Real Madrid that you want. It's easy to feel like an idiot captaining underdog goalkeepers because it doesn't frequently work out, but if you take this approach frequently you get rewarded when things work out. Don't be afraid to sprinkle in a few strange lineups when playing larger field tournaments in Showdown. If you prefer to captain a Bayern outfield player, I think that would be fine, as well.
