DFS Soccer 101: Shot Accuracy and Conversion Rate

This article is part of our DFS Soccer 101 series.

As I've noted previously in my articles, one of the leading stats to identify solid performances is touches in the final third, and the table below shows the top 25 players in that stat (note: all tables are sortable):

The real error in only using touches as an indicator for future performance is in over-valuing a team like Chelsea and its players, who are currently producing well below average results for well above average prices on DraftKings. A player like Hazard is routinely priced as one of the top midfielders in any slate, and he routinely fails to produce anywhere close to his expected fantasy output. In fact, on the season he just has a single goal to his name with just two assists, and he hasn't scored double-digit fantasy points in the Premier League since Gameweek 7 against Newcastle. Part of the reason that Chelsea's drop off is so pronounced is the corresponding drop off in Hazard's performance.

So if touches can't easily predict future performance (and can only mildly explain past performances), we need to look at shots and conversion rates. The premise is simple: the more shots you take, the higher the chance to score goals. Not every keeper can keep everything out, and eventually, if you put yourself in the position to score goals, you will do so. Here are the top 25 shot takers in the league:

High Accuracy, High Conversion
The group with accuracy above 40 percent and a conversion rate above 20 percent includes Jamie Vardy, Romelu Lukaku, Riyad Mahrez and Olivier Giroud. They have all been playing excellent football and have managed to win the hearts (and the GPPs) of many supporters. They are likely matchup proof and will keep scoring goals as long as they maintain these shot volumes. One thing to note is that while these players may be exhibiting seemingly long-term improvement, the real concern is that not many of them have been able to do this throughout their careers. So will they revert back to their old numbers?

High Accuracy, Medium Conversion
The players with accuracy above 40 percent and a conversion rate between 10 percent and 20 percent are Harry Kane, Odion Ighalo, Sergio Aguero and Yannick Bolasie. With the exception of Bolasie, these are strikers who typically take a lot of shots. Aguero has missed some time due to injury which has hurt his total number of goals. These players can be expected to maintain their current production. Bolasie is an interesting case, as he is an attacking midfielder on a team that utilizes their midfielders very efficiently on offense.

High Accuracy, Low Conversion
This category has a single inhabitant: Christian Eriksen. He has taken 32 shots but scored just two goals, and with 13 of his 32 shots being on target, Eriksen seems to have a very low conversion rate that should correct itself. Of course, his major problem, which has been the case for the majority of his career, is that he doesn't take quality shots. He has a 10.9 percent conversion rate (goals per shot) in his career, however, so we should expect him to score at least a single goal in the next 2-5 matches.

Medium Accuracy, High Conversion
These are players with accuracy between 30 percent and 40 percent, and a conversion rate above 20 percent. There are no players currently in this category in the top 25 shot takers.

Medium Accuracy, Medium Conversion
Three players are in the group of having an accuracy between 30 percent and 40 percent and a conversion rate between 10 percent and 20 percent: Bafetimbi Gomis, Ross Barkley and Yohan Cabaye. For Gomis, his 2.5 shots per game and 12.5 percent conversion rate is right on par with his career average. His 37.5 percent accuracy, however, is a touch below his career number of 40.5 percent. With Swansea currently in the process of replacing manager Garry Monk, there is no telling where Gomis' performance will go, though there is a good chance he continues his current trend for the season. Barkley and Cabaye have been catalysts in the successful starts for their clubs' seasons. Cabaye has been a rock in the defensive middle, with 42 tackles and 60 interceptions this season, and he has shown that his value for DFS extends beyond scoring goals, making him a premier cash-game play every week. Barkley, on the other hand, has proven to be a good player and one to target as he has more shots, goals, crosses and assists than anybody on his team except for Gerard Deulofeu and Lukaku.

Medium Accuracy, Low Conversion
These are the players who are accurate with their shots (30 percent to 40 percent accuracy) but fail to convert them into goals (less than 10 percent conversion rate). There are a number of obvious players, including Philippe Coutinho, Sadio Mane, Yaya Toure, Aaron Ramsey, Salomon Rondon, Gylfi Sigurdsson and Diafra Sakho. Of those, Coutinho is one that we mentioned previously as "due" for some goals. He's taken 59 shots, which is tied with Vardy for the second-most in the league. However, he's not converting at the same rate as the Leicester striker. Also worth a look is Mane, who is very good at drawing fouls and delivering crosses but hasn't been able to find the back of the net more than three times in 43 shots this season.

Low Accuracy, High Conversion
There are no players that fit this category

Low Accuracy, Medium Conversion
Alexis Sanchez, Graziano Pelle and Troy Deeney make up the category of players who take a lot of shots, hit a good number of them on target but don't convert as well as others. Of those, Pelle and Alexis are true strikers, and while Pelle had a recent run of goal scoring, his current conversion rate has him finishing the season with 14 goals, which is right around where we'd expect him to be. Alexis, however, has just six goals on 57 shots (10.5 percent conversion rate) but he has a 16.7 percent conversion rate for his career. So when he returns from injury, he should be due for an offensive explosion. And if you factor in his teammates' form, he should have no problem raising that conversion percentage.

Low Accuracy, Low Conversion
Matt Ritchie, Jonjo Shelvey and Rudy Gestede are specialists at taking shots from well outside the 18-yard box. They occasionally score a goal, and sometimes manage to get on the highlight reel, but their six combined goals on 103 shots tells the whole story. Not to mention, of those 103 shots, only 26 were on target, making them exceptionally inaccurate. While they are capable of scoring goals, especially if their spot in the lineup facilitates it (like when Shelvey is playing without Gylfi Sigurdsson), my expectation isn't high that they will step too far from their current output.