Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa Preview, Prediction & Betting Odds (GW14)
The Amex Stadium hosts a key Premier League GW14 clash Wednesday as fourth-place Aston Villa travel to face fifth-place Brighton & Hove Albion. With just two points separating the sides after 13 matches, both clubs enter aiming to strengthen their push for a Champions League place.
Brighton have found stability under head coach Fabian Hurzeler, entering this fixture on a four-match unbeaten run during which the Seagulls have noticeably tightened defensively.
Aston Villa, guided by Unai Emery, continue to balance Premier League and Europa League duties impressively. The Villans have lost only four of 18 matches across all competitions this season and remain one of the league's most consistent performers.
This preview covers predicted lineups, injury news, head-to-head history, betting odds and a score prediction for Sunday's Chelsea vs Arsenal match.
Premier League Player News & Updates
When & Where to Watch (USA/UK)
Wednesday, December 3 at 2:30 PM ET/11:30 AM PT
USA
Streaming: Peacock
TV: Not available
UK
Streaming: Live Stream (Sky Subscribers): Sky Sports+ app or Sky Go
Live Stream (Contract free): NOW Sports Membership
TV: Sky Sports
Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Aston Villa Head-to-Head Record
Brighton & Hove Albion and Aston Villa have met 35 times, dating back to 1910 when Brighton earned a 2-1 victory over Aston Villa in an FA Charity Shield matchup at Stamford Bridge.
The Villans lead the all-time series, winning 19 times and drawing on 10 occasions.
In the modern era, Aston Villa have continued their dominance over Brighton. Across their last 10 Premier League meetings, Brighton has secured just eight of a possible 30 points.
Fixture Trivia
Question: Who was the only player to score from open play in Brighton & Aston Villa's most recent League Championship matchup in 2017?
Gameweek 13 Trivia: Which Arsenal player scored a brace to lead Arsenal to a 2020 FA Cup Final victory over Chelsea?
Betting Odds and Predictions for Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Aston Villa Match
Premier League Odds Comparisons
Moneyline Odds
DraftKings: BHA +110 Draw +260, AVL +245
FanDuel: BHA +110 Draw +250, AVL +240
BetMGM: BHA +115 Draw +240, AVL +230
Bet365: BHA +110 Draw +250, AVL +240
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RECENT FORM
Brighton & Hove Albion (WWDWL) have allowed just one league goal across four fixtures since a 4-2 defeat to Manchester United. Across the four-match stretch, the Seagulls have outscored their opponents 7-3.
Aston Villa (WWWWW) are unbeaten in their last five fixtures across all competitions. The Claret & Blue have earned three clean sheets across the unblemished run and scored at least two goals in four of the five fixtures.
FORMATIONS
Brighton & Hove Albion most often lineup in a base 4-2-3-1 under Hurzeler with the young manager eager to impress tactically flexibility upon his setup. When in possession, look for the Seagulls' full-backs to jump forward in support of their wing-play and midfield. When dispossessed, expect Brighton to use a 4-2-2-2 shape to press high up the pitch before reshaping into their base formation in the defensive-third.
Aston Villa are well-drilled in Emery's 4-2-3-1 formation and the nuances the head coach incorporates. Emery will play his midfielders deeper when absorbing an opponent press in an effort to create vertical passing lanes. When the Villans are in the attacking-third, expect to see the ball move centrally as they seek to create spaces from Ollie Watkins via quick passes. As the Villans transition to defense, expect to see an aggressive press while their midfield attempts to disrupt the rhythm of the opponent build-up.
CONFIRMED LINEUP NOTES & INJURY NEWS
Premier League Predicted & Confirmed Lineups
Brighton & Hove Albion Injury News & Lineup Notes
The Seagulls are likely to have three attackers undergo a pre-match fitness test Wednesday.
Kaoru Mitoma (ankle) is a possibility to make his return from an injury he suffered in late Sept. and caused him to miss seven league fixtures. During his Tuesday press conference Hurzeler stated, "Kaoru was training yesterday [Monday] and he will train today. Then we have to make a decision if he's an option for the squad. But he's definitely really close." Fellow attacker Georginio Rutter (head) is a question mark for the fixture after a non-concussion contusion forced him off the pitch prematurely in Brighton's most recent win over Nottingham Forest. Lastly, promising teenager Tom Watson (undisclosed) is likely to be available for selection after an undisclosed knock caused him to be unavailable for their last three league matches.
If Mitoma is deemed fit, look for him to play a role off of the substitute's bench in favor of Brajan Gruda as he continues to work to regain full fitness. Rutter is a critical member of the squad. When deemed fit, he is Hurzeler's preferred option in the No. 10 role. If Rutter is forced to begin on the bench, look for Diego Gomez to deputize in the pocket below the striker.
James Milner (strain) & Solomon March (knee) are each nearing their return from long-term absences with each trending towards fitness ahead of the holiday fixtures.
Adam Webster (knee) remains a long-term absence after suffering an ACL injury in preseason training.
Aston Villa Injury News & Lineup Notes
Emery has just two injuries to sort through as he ponders Wednesday's starting XI:
Ross Barkley (knee) is out after suffering a knee injury in Sunday's 1-0 win over Wolves, according to manager Unai Emery. "Ruled out as well is Ross , his injury is more than we expected. I don't know exactly, but maybe 8-10-12 weeks. Hopefully a little bit less." Barkley was filling a super-substitute role for the Villans, and his minutes could be swept-up by fellow midfielder Emiliano Buendia.
Defender Tyrone Mings (hamstring) suffered an injury in early Nov. and is not expected back until 2026. According to manager Unai Emery. "Tyrone is not available until, more or less, one month more." In the absence of the veteran defender, Pau Torres and Ezri Konsa have absorbed the majority of minutes in central defense.
KEY MATCHUPS
Morgan Rogers versus Carlos Baleba
Rogers' role in the Aston Villa attack is to control the point of attack below the striker and create goal-scoring opportunities for his teammates. Opposing the very space Rogers would like to occupy, Baleba is one of the most talented young holding-midfielders in England and will be tasked with closing down attackers to protect his backline.
Amplifying the matchup, Rogers typically spearheads the Villa press while Baleba normally sits deep to interchange with his defense and break presses. The player who is most successfully able to impose his will upon this fixture will necessarily outplay his counterpart and give his team a leading edge.
Backline distribution versus opposition press
With each side typically setting up to pressure opponents in their defensive half, each goalkeeper and their backline's distribution will play an outsized role in deciding the fixture's result.
Bart Verbruggen is an adept player with the ball at his feet. When playing out of the back, look for Verbruggen to play through the likes of Lewis Dunk, Jan Paul van Hecke and Joel Veltman. Left full-back Ferdi Kadioglu is likely to take up a position higher up the pitch to provide an outlet while the Seagulls are being pressed.
Barring a blunder, I back Brighton to leverage outlets like Kadioglu and Baleba to progress the ball effectively without putting their own goal in danger.
Verburggen's counterpart, Emiliano Martinez, is one of the most effective distributors of the ball in world football today. Juxtaposed against the Seagulls' approach, the veteran Argentine keeper is likely to see his entire backline of four willing to receive short passes as they look to interchange with central midfielders Boubacar Kamara and Youri Tielemans. Look for Yankuba Minteh and Danny Welbeck to supply the pressure from Brighton.
Despite their success, Emery's men lead the Premier League with 11.1 turnovers per match. I back Brighton to create at least one chance resulting from a VIlla turnover inside their own half.
MAN OF THE MATCH
In his 18th Premier League season, at age 35, Danny Welbeck is on pace to score his most goals in a single domestic campaign in his career. Over 13 appearances (10 starts), the veteran striker has bagged seven goals and is tied with Jean-Philippe Mateta for the third most in England's top-flight. I back Welbeck's positioning in and around the six-yard box Wednesday to give him the opportunity to add to his already impressive goal tally.
RESULT
Brighton & Hove Albion 2 - Aston Villa 1
UPCOMING FIXTURES
Brighton & Hove Albion: Dec. 7 vs West Ham United
Aston Villa: Dec. 6 vs Arsenal
