This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
I've been preaching about how low scoring the Premier League is, and while that came to fruition over the weekend with 19 goals scored in 10 matches, there is hope ahead. More matches usually means tired legs and that's when the stars tend to shine. I don't have the numbers over the past 10 years, but last season, eight different players had braces in the four gameweeks from before Christmas until the first week in January.
There wasn't an overwhelming number of goals scored in total, but the players who were fit seemed to stand above the rest. Here's the list:
Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Troy Deeney, Roberto Firmino, Danny Ings, Gabriel Jesus, Anthony Martial, Raheem Sterling and Willian.
Maybe that was a random occurrence, but in comparison, there have been six braces in the last four gameweeks of the current season, and two were by Crystal Palace in a 5-1 drubbing because West Brom picked up an early red card.
There's a chance this doesn't mean anything and it's a small sample, but it could also mean the holiday season is brace season and that means it's the best time of the year to bet the best players to score more than once.
LAST GAMEWEEK
Almost everything went exactly as I expected last week, highlighted by this statement: "I think the Arsenal v. Burnley match is going to be ugly." Unfortunately, the one match that didn't go my way was included in my parlay, as Chelsea couldn't find the back of the net against Everton (I had over 1.5 goals). Otherwise, Manchester City continue to be overrated and oddsmakers some reason think Burnley matches should be high scoring.
THE WEEK AHEAD
There are a lot of matches in the next few days and I'll undoubtedly change my mind as the odds change and matches are played.
I mentioned Southampton to win or draw last week at -114 and that number was -148 as of Tuesday. While the number isn't as good, it still feels like a great spot. Southampton have dropped points in just one of their last 10 matches, while Arsenal have lost four of their last five in league play. The worry is that the Gunners could turn into a good team again at any time given their talent, but I'd rather keep betting against them until that happens.
I think Newcastle to win or draw at +114 is also a worthy bet, mainly because Leeds seem to be one of the overrated teams that gets love from the oddsmakers no matter the results (the Marcelo Bielsa effect?). They've lost four of their last six, and while Newcastle aren't a top team, they'll put up a fight and could be a little healthier after their COVID crisis from a couple weeks ago. However, if Newcastle start youth players because their entire team is fatigued following last weekend's match, I'd hold off on this.
It's kind of the same strategy with Tottenham to win or draw at +108. Liverpool won both meetings last season, but neither was overly dominant. Now, coming off a draw at Fulham, I wouldn't be overly confident in the Reds. The lone reason I'm not making Tottenham a main bet is that Liverpool have been great at home, even without fans, winning their last seven in league play. If you don't want to take either side, Tottenham have been great defensively and have allowed just two goals in their last seven league matches. At +128, you can get under 2.5 goals and either hope for a 1-0 or 2-0 win, or even a 1-1 draw. All three of those results are in play, which is usually a good reason to make a bet.
For more midweek goal bets, it's inevitable Leicester City and Everton will score, which is why the over 2.5 goals is at -143. There's a chance Everton take the same approach as last match, but Leicester don't play the same as Chelsea. If anything, you could throw the over in a parlay with Villa and Burnley under 2.5 goals at +102. These teams have been a bit all over this season, but it's widely known that Burnley want to play defensively and keep things low scoring. As seen in the Wolves match, Villa aren't always a clinical team in front of net, and I think that's a boost to Burnley in what could be another 1-0 type of match.
There are a lot of things I like for the weekend, but given the midweek matches, it's hard to be overly confident. Of course, that won't stop me from making bets.
If you've been following this article the last month (and a few paragraphs ago), you probably knew I was going to talk about Southampton to win or draw at +180 against Man City. While there aren't fans, Southampton are home and playing well against a City side that doesn't have a win against a team in the top 12 of the table. City's best win came against Wolves, which was more than two months ago. They also beat Arsenal and Sheffield United 1-0. Is Manchester City elite? If you remove the names and only took into account results, Southampton would probably be a -130 favorite. I'm not betting Southampton to win, but at +180 odds to win or draw is awesome. Oh yeah, Southampton won in this spot 1-0 back in July when City were a -320 favorite.
I think Sheffield United +117 and West Ham +188 are also solid options to win or draw, but I prefer Southampton at home. The Blades are a mess, but Brighton seem like a team that is there for the taking, while West Ham are playing well enough to steal a point from Chelsea. Similar to last week, I'm probably staying away from West Ham if Michail Antonio isn't healthy, though that didn't matter against Leeds.
For a straight-up win, Aston Villa are -107 to beat West Brom. You may be able to get a better number if Villa don't get a positive result midweek against Burnley, but anything around even is worth taking. They're a better team than West Brom, who are not only struggling, but also have a lack of depth, which isn't a great recipe now that the schedule is picking up.
Speaking of Burnley, I'm sticking with under 2.5 goals at -180 as a parlay piece in the match against Wolverhampton. Burnley want to play defensively and Wolves are trying to figure out how to score without Raul Jimenez. This has the makings of a 1-0 result to either side and I'm about 50/50 on who that will go to.
You can add Manchester United and Leeds over 2.5 goals at -182 to the parlay. The oddsmakers expect goals and I expect goals. Leeds seem to allow goals to anyone who wants to score. They have a couple solid defensive performances, but their recent injuries don't help and they've had trouble defending set pieces all season. Man United are kind of in the same mold in terms of allowing goals except they're always in play to score three goals against weaker back lines.
Bringing this article full circle, you can get Bruno Fernandes at +700 to score at least twice against Leeds or Mohamed Salah at +525 against Crystal Palace. For a bigger payout, Ollie Watkins is +750 to bag at least two goals against West Brom. Hey, it's brace season, why not?
THE BETS
Southampton to win or draw (v. Arsenal) -148
Tottenham/Liverpool under 2.5 goals +128
Aston Villa to beat West Brom -107
Southampton to win or draw (v. Man City) +180
Midweek parlay: Leicester/Everton over 1.5 goals (-480), West Ham win/draw v. Palace (-345), Villa/Burnley under 3.5 goals (-278) = +112
Weekend parlay: Man United/Leeds over 2.5 goals (-182), Burnley/Wolves under 2.5 goals (-180), Everton win/draw v. Arsenal (-225) = +251
