This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The Bundesliga remains a mystery, and it seems like anything can happen in any given gameweek. While the league is dominated by the top teams, there's often at least one weird result involving them every gameweek. Borussia Dortmund were maybe the most in-form side in the league and then lost at home to Koln, who were in the relegation zone and lost both meetings by a combined 8-2 score line last season. It doesn't help that it wasn't really much of a fluke because Dortmund had most of their regulars in and were down 2-0 until the 74th minute. This wasn't a stoppage-time winner situation; Dortmund were losing for the final 81 minutes against Koln.
That result turned me off moneyline parlays after Dortmund ruined one last week as -435 favorites.
LAST GAMEWEEK
The question is where to capitalize going forward because all of my reasonable bets last week didn't hit. Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen are two of the most defensive teams in the league, yet they combined for eight goals in a ridiculous match that hit over 2.5 goals in the first 25 minutes. Hoffenheim played in one of the few matches to have under 2.5 goals, so Andrej Kramaric didn't score as expected. And even though Eintracht Frankfurt drew 3-3, they weren't close to scoring first as Union Berlin bagged two goals in the first six minutes. For the most part, anything I picked last week, the opposite happened. Fortunately, I managed to hit a +201 parlay, which saved me from complete embarrassment.
THE WEEK AHEAD
Union Berlin are slowly getting more respect, but I'm not ready to take them at -162 for a win or draw against Hertha Berlin, who have had a difficult run of fixtures. I'd rather look at Friday's opening match as a stacking piece for the weekend because you can get both teams to score at -186. Both teams have scored in six of Union Berlin's last seven matches and Hertha have scored in four of their last five, with the lone goalless outing coming last week against Bayer Leverkusen. Derbies are usually difficult to bet, but in a league where both teams usually score every match, I'm not worried about it as much.
For some reason, I have my eye on the under between Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig. This feels like a trap because this matchup has the highest-implied goal total on the weekend, but there have been just three goals scored in the last four league meetings between these teams. The main thing going against this bet is that Bayern rested the majority of their starters Tuesday, while Leipzig were in Istanbul on Wednesday, a dramatic 4-3 Champions League win. However, Leipzig also got a few starters back in defense and I'm comfortable backing Julian Nagelsmann, who seems to know how to limit this Bayern attack. It's incredibly risky, but under 3.5 goals comes in at +100.
I have my eye on Wolfsburg to beat Koln 2-1 at +700. Recent history make this an oddly enticing bet. Three of Koln's last four matches have finished 2-1 and they've scored one goal in six of their last seven. Wolfsburg have allowed one goal in four of their last six matches and have scored two in three of their last five. These kind of trends don't normally exist, so when something like this pops up, it usually makes sense to sprinkle some money on it.
I also like a small parlay for Saturday's early slate. Mainz to win or draw against Arminia Bielefeld at -220 opens the parlay. Mainz have taken points in each of their last three matches, while Arminia have lost their last six. Dortmund are known for defense, but they've allowed multiple goals in each of their last three league matches and Eintracht have scored against everyone but Bayern. Both to score is -245. It's a similar bet between Freiburg and Monchengladbach, who have allowed a goal to everyone but Leipzig this season, while Freiburg have scored in every home match. Both to score is -190.
Throw those together and it's a nice Saturday parlay for +215.
Werder Bremen and Stuttgart draw more than almost every other team in the league and they're playing each other. Werder have drawn five of their last six matches 1-1, while Stuttgart have drawn four of their last six. The Werder and Stuttgart draw comes to +255 and if you're feeling lucky, a 1-1 draw is +600.
THE BETS
Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig under 3.5 goals +100
Wolfsburg to beat Koln 2-1 +700
Werder Bremen and Stuttgart draw +255
Parlay: Mainz win or draw -220, Both Eintracht and Dortmund to score -245, Both Monchengladbach and Freiburg to score -190 = +215
Parlay: Both Hertha and Union to score -186, Hoffenheim win or draw -375, Leverkusen win or draw -670, Monchengladbach win or draw -385 = +183
