The LiUNA!
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Course: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Format: Tri-Oval
Length: 1.5 miles
Laps: 200
NASCAR Xfinity The LiUNA! Preview
NASCAR continues its West Coast swing this weekend in Las Vegas as we hit another more traditional track. Many of the predictable names were contenders last weekend in Phoenix, highlighted by Justin Allgaier (fifth), Sam Mayer (seventh) and Jesse Love (ninth). We also saw the rookie full-time drivers continue to have success with both Christian Eckes and Nick Sanchez notching top-ten finishes. We should see another relatively predictable weekend in Las Vegas, so let's ump into who we can expect to be the top contenders.
Key Stats at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
- Number of Races: 35
- Winners from Pole: 6
- Winners from Top 5: 16
- Winners from Top 10: 27
Previous Winners at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
2024- AJ Allmendinger
2024- John Hunter Nemechek
2023- Riley Herbst
2023- Austin Hill
2022- Josh Berry
2022- Ty Gibbs
2021- Josh Berry
2021- AJ Allmendinger
2020- Chase Briscoe
2020- Chase Briscoe
While we used the intro to draw some parallels in expectation between Phoenix and Las Vegas, there are key distinctions to be made. Aside from the obvious difference in lap length and total length of the race, the trends are also quite different. A quick glance at the stats suggests that qualifying is very important at the track, but that's not quite as clear of late. Since 2021, the winner with the best starting position was eight and the worst 15. There's potential to move through the field at this track, which is very important to consider both in the context of DFS and betting because a car moving through the field will lead to big DFS scores and potentially cashing long odds.
NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Values for The LiUNA!
Based on a Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Justin Allgaier - $10,700
Aric Almirola - $10,500
Austin Hill - $9,800
Jesse Love- $9,500
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Sam Mayer - $9,000
Taylor Gray -$8,800
Ryan Sieg- $8,400
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Christian Eckes - $8,000
Nick Sanchez - $7,800
William Sawalich - $7,700
Harrison Burton - $7,500
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Jeremy Clements - $6,900
Josh Williams- $6,600
Brennan Poole - $6,500
NASCAR Xfinity Picks for The LiUNA!
Justin Allgaier - $10,700
Austin Hill - $9,800
Nick Sanchez- $7,800
William Sawalich - $7,700
Harrison Burton - $7,500
Brennan Poole- $6,500
Allgaier is the standout option in Tier 1 thanks to his track record at Las Vegas. He has 21 career races at the track in the Xfinity Series and has a driver rating over 100 on 17 occasions while finishing inside the top five on 11 occasions. Austin Hill is a more affordable option in the top tier to consider. He has a lesser sample but has finished inside the top-seven in four of his last five races in Vegas. Hill's start to the current season is also notable. He had a reputation as a Superspeedway specialist, but he's shed that a bit with a strong showing at COTA and qualified well at Phoenix before making a key mistake that cost him.
I'd be willing to skip over the second tier as is illustrated in the sample build. Ryan Sieg has had an excellent start to the season but has seen his salary spike over $1,000 dollars across the last three races. That alone doesn't make him a bad pick, but it is likely buying at his peak.
From there, we can highlight the same group of rookies that have frequently appeared through four races this season in Christian Eckes, William Sawalich and Nick Sanchez. I prefer to shop in that tier as opposed to drivers similar to Sieg because their price has remained relatively stable and each has had impressive weekends. Eckes in particular had a lot of success in Las Vegas in the Truck Series, so finding a way to fit him into lineups could be beneficial.
Unlike some of the past weeks, there are also some decent "punt" options. Each of Jeremy Clements, Josh Williams and Brennan Poole project very well in our Optimizer. Each has over performed relative to expectations this season but remains at a palatable price point.
Best Bets for The LiUNA!
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5:00 PM ET Friday
Outright Winner – Justin Allgaier (+330), Taylor Gray (+1800), Christian Eckes (+2800)
There are a few notable differences in offerings this week at various sportsbooks across the industry. We have the traditional outright winner offerings, but there are also some books offering top-three and top-five odds. That leads to a second disclaimer which is to pay attention to price and shop across books.
With that disclaimer out of the way, we can highlight some favorite best bets that are widely available. We've covered Allgaier and Eckes in some detail, but this is a conversation in price. As successful as Allgaier has been, his price point is difficult to justify. Eckes is on the other end of the spectrum as a longshot but with the potential for a huge return.
Gray could be the best option as something in between. He has been in the mix in every race, qualifying inside the top 10 for every race with finishes between fifth and seventh in three of those four races. A win feels like it will come this season, even if it's not this week.
