NASCAR Barometer: Keselowski Wins in New Hampshire

Brad Keselowski scored his third win of the season in an impressive performance at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in Sunday's Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. It was Keselowski's second win at the track and came after a long battled throughout the distance with Denny Hamlin. The pair traded stage wins and went on to battle well into the final stage before Keselowski was able to extend the gap to second place and ease his way to victory. He led 184 of the 301 laps in an impressive statement and now turns his attention to the coming week's double-header weekend at his home circuit.

Michigan International Speedway hosts the next two rounds of the regular season as races tick by to the start of the playoffs. Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick won the two visits to Michigan last season, but this year's events will be back to back on Saturday and Sunday with no practice or qualifying. 

UPGRADE

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski started Sunday's race in New Hampshire leading laps before giving way to Hamlin and finishing fifth in the opening stage. He continued digging and worked his way back to the front for the final laps of the second stage, and then battled Hamlin door-to-door to capture the second segment win. The pair's duel carried right into the final segment as both drivers raced each other hard to come out on top. In the end, it was Keselowski who built a gap and then was able to ease away to capture the checkered flag. The Penske Racing has never won at Michigan, which is his home track. He started from pole at the circuit last fall and led 66 laps before a tire failure and spin left him with a finish of 19th.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin won his fourth stage win of 2020 in the opening segment of Sunday's race after chasing down and passing Keselowski for the lead. The pair found themselves side by side for the finish of the second stage, but Hamlin wasn't able to keep Keselowski behind that time. Hamlin then tailed the No. 2 machine for much of the final stage but wasn't able to find the right line to get himself alongside to try for a pass. After a big effort, Hamlin finally lost Keselowski's bumper as the Penske Ford pulled away to a more comfortable margin, leaving Hamlin to finish second, which was his second top-five in the last four races. Hamlin has two Michigan wins from 2010 and 2011 and finished second in his latest finish last fall.

Kevin Harvick – Harvick and Hamlin had command of momentum over the last few weeks, and it appeared likely one of the two would win at New Hampshire. The proceedings started well for both drivers, too. Unfortunately for Harvick, however, a decision to pit and change tires left him needing an extra stop for fuel while the rest of the field looked confident to finish the stage without it. A caution enabled Harvick to pit under yellow but cost him a significant amount of track position. He spent the final stage climbing back up the order to finish in fifth with an impressive final run to the checkered flag. The team's recovery was a championship worthy performance and should give Harvick a boost heading to Michigan where he visited Victory Lane last fall.

William Byron – Byron entered Sunday's race at New Hampshire locked in a battle to keep his playoff hopes alive. He held a 10-point gap over Tyler Reddick and was aiming for a top-10 finish to retain or move forward in the standings. He drove smoothly and mistake-free, but finished 11th just behind Reddick. That would have been enough to see the rookie eat into Byron's cushion, but finishing fifth in the second stage gave Byron six bonus points. Those six points served to build on that slim lead in the standings by five points, bringing the gap to 15. Intensity over the final transfer spot in the playoff standings is ratcheting up further and further each week, and the pressure will grow. Byron weathered that pressure last week and now must do the same through the final six races to claim his spot in the championship fight.

DOWNGRADE

Kyle Busch – Busch was the first car out of Sunday's race at New Hampshire after a right-front tire failure sent him sliding into the outside wall and straight to the garage. Just a lap prior he scuffed the outside wall on corner exit, which may have contributed to the failure shortly after. Bad luck persists for the No. 18 team as races wind down toward the end of the season and they remain reliant on points to enter the playoffs. While their championship eligibility may not be in much danger, going into the knockout rounds with a win in hand would be a big boost to the team. Busch has one Michigan win from 2011, and he finished in the top 10 there in all of the last six races.

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth struggled Sunday in New Hampshire. He was lacking for pace through the first 200 laps of the race and then spun late in the second stage. He then suffered back-to-back tire failures in the final segment that caused damage after contact with the outside wall. Kenseth only has two top-10 finishes since rejoining the series in May and hasn't finished in the top 15 for the last five races now. He last raced at Michigan in 2018 and finished 33rd. While he has three wins at the track, he has been a step behind the competition and now seems to be falling further behind. Fantasy managers looking to use Kenseth as an option at this point in the season need to have top-15 finishes as their highest expectations.

Christopher Bell – Sunday's race started with Bell in a hole after drawing the 35th starting position. The car was not nearly that slow, and not too long into the race Bell worked his way into the top five. He maintained that quick pace, but suffered multiple issues including a rear-tire failure with just around 50 laps remaining. Pitting to change tires on a short track like New Hampshire is detrimental, and Bell returned to the track two laps down and in 30th position. Bell has two Xfinity series starts at Michigan. He finished 11th and 13th in those races and led 33 laps in the race there last year. Bell needs a win to join fellow rookie Cole Custer in the championship playoffs after losing even more ground in the points after Sunday's trouble.

Ryan Blaney – Despite having the speed to run in the top five early in Sunday's race, Blaney fell out of sequence with his pit strategy and slipped back in the pack. As the team tried to recover, they also suffered refueling problems. Despite pitting later and having more fuel than the cars around him, Blaney failed to work his way back to the top 10 and spent most of the final stage mired outside of the top 15. Not being able to move back to the front despite the speed his car had earlier in the race was a big disappointment for him and the team. They now have six races to learn from what happened, fix the problems and build momentum before the playoffs begin. Blaney has shown the speed to compete for a championship but now needs to add the consistency.

Erik Jones – A 24th-place finish at New Hampshire last Sunday dug Jones deeper into the hole he was already in prior to the race weekend. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver is not only winless so far in 2020, but he also hasn't done enough to be in the playoffs yet. With six races remaining to get the job done, he fell from 12 points out of the playoffs before the weekend to 31 after the race. Jones needs to improve in order to keep his position with the team. He does not have a contract for the 2021 season, and only results will keep him behind the wheel of the No. 20 machine. Prospects for a big recovery this week at his home track don't seem bright either. He has just one top-10 finish from six series starts at Michigan and finished 31st and 18th in last year's races.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Cole Custer –  After scoring a surprise win at Kentucky, Cole Custer is bursting with confidence and leaves New Hampshire with three top-10 finishes from the last four races, including his win. Custer is gaining momentum as the playoffs approach and he has a guaranteed spot in the show. This surge from the No. 41 team could be good for fantasy managers to ride as Custer looks to be a spoiler and advance beyond the first round of the championship battle. At California, prior to the shutdown, Custer started and finished 18th. From three Xfinity starts at California's sister track Michigan he earned an average finish of 8.3. More top-10s will only serve to position Custer as more of that spoiler and fantasy players' confidence choosing him each week should also be rising.