This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Brad Keselowski entered the Federated Auto Parts 400 expecting to be fast and dominate the race. He said anything less would be a disappointment, and that is exactly what he and the team delivered. The Penske Racing Fords were quick from the start and Keselowski was never far out of the lead. He led nearly half the race laps and cruised to more than a two-second lead for the final miles. Keselowski joins Kevin Harvick with a guaranteed spot in the next round of the playoffs, which will get underway in Las Vegas in two weeks.
Up first is the final race of the round of 16, though. Ten playoff spots remain to be decided this week as Ryan Blaney, Matt DiBenedetto, Cole Custer, and William Byron all sit below the cutoff line, needing to make something happen. The 12th and final playoff position is a very tight affair with just 12 points separating positions 10 through 14. Every point on offer will be a difference maker this week as the field gears up for another intense elimination race to decide the final 12 championship contenders.
UPGRADE
Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing Fords started Saturday night's race in Richmond at the front and never faded far away from it. Keselowski spent a lot of time out front early, and then chased down Austin Dillon to win the second stage and capture a playoff point. That strength continued right into the final stage, which he dominated. After
Brad Keselowski entered the Federated Auto Parts 400 expecting to be fast and dominate the race. He said anything less would be a disappointment, and that is exactly what he and the team delivered. The Penske Racing Fords were quick from the start and Keselowski was never far out of the lead. He led nearly half the race laps and cruised to more than a two-second lead for the final miles. Keselowski joins Kevin Harvick with a guaranteed spot in the next round of the playoffs, which will get underway in Las Vegas in two weeks.
Up first is the final race of the round of 16, though. Ten playoff spots remain to be decided this week as Ryan Blaney, Matt DiBenedetto, Cole Custer, and William Byron all sit below the cutoff line, needing to make something happen. The 12th and final playoff position is a very tight affair with just 12 points separating positions 10 through 14. Every point on offer will be a difference maker this week as the field gears up for another intense elimination race to decide the final 12 championship contenders.
UPGRADE
Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing Fords started Saturday night's race in Richmond at the front and never faded far away from it. Keselowski spent a lot of time out front early, and then chased down Austin Dillon to win the second stage and capture a playoff point. That strength continued right into the final stage, which he dominated. After the final round of pit stops the No. 2 built over a two-second lead, which he held until the checkered flag. The win Saturday night continued Keselowski's streak of great short-track form and earned him an automatic entry into the next round of the playoffs. Keselowski has three career wins at Bristol, the most recent of which was earlier this season when he won from pole with 115 laps led.
Austin Dillon – Dillon had one of the quickest cars Saturday night in Richmond. It was the second week in a row that he appeared to have the pace to contend with the championship favorites for race wins. He even overcame a pit road speeding penalty to get to the lead in the second stage after being at the back for the restart, which was something Denny Hamlin wasn't even able to do. Dillon's race was so impressive that he even collected the most stage points heading into the final segment. With one more race before the first four championship contenders are eliminated, Dillon is now over 30 points ahead of the cutoff heading to Bristol where he has three top-10 finishes and finished sixth earlier this season.
Joey Logano – Logano didn't have the adversity of a damaged car to overcome like he did the week before at Darlington. Logano was able to race his teammate at the front of the field without the extra distraction. He led 45 laps on the night and finished in the top five in every segment to pad his points total. He sits fourth in the playoff standings with only Bristol standing between him and the round of 12. Logano has two wins at that track and will be working to continue building upon the success of the past few weeks in the run to Phoenix. Logano has just two finishes outside of the top 10 since the All-Star Race in July. He also has three top-10s from his last five Bristol starts but only finished 21st there this past May.
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin came out on top of a battle with Austin Dillon after the competition caution to win the first stage Saturday night and grab a valuable playoff point. That was immediately followed by a speeding penalty that forced him to start the second stage deep in the field. Once he lost track position he found it difficult to work his way back to the front and spent the rest of the race distance mired in traffic. By the end of the race Hamlin was still running outside of the top and was a lap down to the leaders. That one small mistake ruined what should have been another top-10 finish or maybe even a top-five. Hamlin has two Bristol wins, including last fall's race, and led 110 laps there earlier this season.
Kyle Busch – Saturday's race did not start well for Busch. Crew Chief Adam Stevens was already forced to sit out Saturday night's Richmond race for violations at Darlington. That was bad enough, but then the team failed pre-race inspection twice and was forced to start at the rear of the field. Luckily, the team was able to move forward but missed out on stage points in the first segment. The team kept digging and came forward to finish in the top 10 in the second segment and ultimately finish sixth in the race. After Saturday's effort he is above the cutoff line with one race left in this round of eliminations. Busch has eight Bristol wins including three of the last six and finished fourth and led 100 laps there earlier this season.
DOWNGRADE
William Byron – Saturday night started decently enough for Byron. It looked good enough early that with just an adjustment or two might have put him in contention among the top 10. The adjustments didn't come, though. In fact, after the first rounds of pit stops it was apparent that the team ad completely lost the handling on the car and Byron was struggling to make any kind of headway. He missed out on stage points in both segments and finished the race outside of the top 20, two laps behind the leaders. While playoff elimination is far from a done deal for him, he does head into the final race behind the cut line. He has it all to do having just one Bristol top-10, an eighth-place finish earlier this season.
Ryan Blaney – Blaney suffered early problems for the second week in a row. After a dismal start to the playoffs in Darlington he needed luck on his side in Richmond, but a loose front wheel in the first round of pit stops returned him to pit road and forfeit track position. He then struggled to find the speed necessary to climb up the running order and spent the majority of the night floundering at the back of the top 20. Penalties and poor on-track appearances have put Blaney last in the playoffs with his championship hopes in a dire situation. The next race at is shaping up to me a near must-win scenario to continue in the championship. Blaney has four top-10s from 10 Bristol starts, but crashed out of the visit there earlier this season and finished last.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Stenhouse may leave Richmond ruing missed opportunity. The JTG Daugherty Racing driver appeared to have one of the faster cars in the field before a mistake on pit road earned him a drive-through penalty just before the halfway mark. Track position at a short track is an important factor, and mistakes later in the race are more difficult to overcome. Stenhouse fought back but only worked his way back to 18th for the finish. For a car that seemed to equal that of Austin Dillon it was a disappointing finish. Stenhouse and this team are fighting uphill with less resources than the major teams, and they need to capitalize when they have the opportunity to do so. They failed to do so Saturday night.
Matt DiBenedetto – Not many fantasy players would have picked DiBenedetto to advance beyond the first round of championship cuts, and after a difficult night at Richmond he is on the cusp of elimination. DiBenedetto's race never got rolling Saturday night. He missed out on stage points in both opening segments and then finished 17th, a lap down to the leaders. He could bring some confidence into the next race at Bristol after nearly winning there last fall, but his 31st-place finish at the track earlier this year will be weighing on him as well. DiBenedetto is 15th in the standings, 25 points behind Clint Bowyer in the final transfer position. He needs stage points, a top finish, and some other championship contenders to have early trouble in order to advance in the championship.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Tyler Reddick – Despite having a very quiet night, Reddick had a very impressive race at Richmond. The rookie driver was the highest finishing non-playoff driver in 11th place. He didn't lead any laps but was a consistent figure in the top 10 while the attention was mostly focused on the playoff contenders. Reddick was just one of two non-playoff drivers to finish in the top 15, and he overcame finishes outside of the top 20 in the two races before Saturday night. Both Reddick and Austin Dillon have been showing their strength this season and Richard Childress Racing is on a fine upswing in performance. Reddick will be looking to build upon that momentum this week as he hopes to overcome his crash and 36th-place Bristol finish from May.
