This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Alex Bowman got off of pit road first in the final round of pit stops in Sunday's Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway, which gave him the track position he needed to pull away from his teammates to win. Thanks to Jimmie Johnson, the No. 48 machine is no stranger to Dover's Victory Lane, but this was the first time the car was there with Bowman behind the wheel. His chassis adjustments for the final fuel run outclassed teammate Kyle Larson who dominated the race up to that point with 263 laps led. The win puts Bowman alongside Martin Truex Jr. as the only repeat victors so far this season, and it was also a banner afternoon for Hendrick Motorsports. The teammates swept the top four spots. For Larson, it was another frustrating afternoon where he led the most laps and swept the stage victories only to come up short of the checkered flag.
This week the series faces its second road course of the season. It will be the debut race for Austin's Circuit of the Americas in NASCAR competition. The circuit opened in 2012 and has hosted Formula 1, IndyCar, MotoGP and sportscars. The 20-turn configuration is a collection of some of the most famous corners from the world's most famous circuits. Its elevation changes, lap length and many turns will present a unique challenge for teams and drivers to overcome.
UPGRADE
Alex Bowman – Fans used to watching races at Dover would be used to seeing
Alex Bowman got off of pit road first in the final round of pit stops in Sunday's Drydene 400 at Dover International Speedway, which gave him the track position he needed to pull away from his teammates to win. Thanks to Jimmie Johnson, the No. 48 machine is no stranger to Dover's Victory Lane, but this was the first time the car was there with Bowman behind the wheel. His chassis adjustments for the final fuel run outclassed teammate Kyle Larson who dominated the race up to that point with 263 laps led. The win puts Bowman alongside Martin Truex Jr. as the only repeat victors so far this season, and it was also a banner afternoon for Hendrick Motorsports. The teammates swept the top four spots. For Larson, it was another frustrating afternoon where he led the most laps and swept the stage victories only to come up short of the checkered flag.
This week the series faces its second road course of the season. It will be the debut race for Austin's Circuit of the Americas in NASCAR competition. The circuit opened in 2012 and has hosted Formula 1, IndyCar, MotoGP and sportscars. The 20-turn configuration is a collection of some of the most famous corners from the world's most famous circuits. Its elevation changes, lap length and many turns will present a unique challenge for teams and drivers to overcome.
UPGRADE
Alex Bowman – Fans used to watching races at Dover would be used to seeing the No. 48 leading, except this past week it was Bowman who was behind the wheel instead of Jimmie Johnson. The Hendrick Motorsports teammates dominated the running, but Bowman was the one who capitalized on getting off of pit road first in the last round of pit stops to pull ahead and win his second race of the season, joining Truex as the only drivers to have won multiple races so far this season. The win was the fourth of his career and sends him to a new road course this coming week with the wind firmly in his sails. Bowman has not finished worse than 12th on a road course since Watkins Glen in 2019.
Kyle Larson – Larson jetted to the lead early at Dover and stretched it to a seven-second lead to win the opening stage, his fifth of the season, tying Denny Hamlin for most so far in 2021. He then went one further by adding the second stage, too. However, as has become all too typical of Larson, he was unable to finish the job and finished second to teammate Alex Bowman. Larson's inability to close out races that he dominates is starting to become a concern. Certainly the wins will come with that speed, but the only lap led that truly matters is the final one. Surprisingly, Larson has yet to win on a road course in the Cup Series. He has four road course top-10s in 15 attempts.
Chase Elliott – Elliott finished third in a Hendrick 1-2-3-4 finish. The defending series champion did not lead a lap and has yet to win in 2021, but has started making strides toward a long-awaited return to Victory Lane. He has finished seventh or better in the last three races, which is his best run of results so far this year. That momentum could pay dividends this week as the series visits a new road course this coming week. Elliott has recently been the best on road courses, and fantasy players will expect him to be back at the front again this week in Texas. He has won four of the last five points-paying races on that type of track and has five career road course wins in total. A top starting spot this coming week could put him in position to capitalize at the Circuit of the Americas.
William Byron – While Byron may have finished last among his teammates, he extended his run of top-10 finishes to an impressive 11 races. This has been the most consistent team at the front of the field all season so far, but Byron has not gotten the attention of many others. The type of consistency Byron has had is championship caliber. Hendrick arguably has the fastest machinery on track right now, and Byron is making the most of it. This week's race in Texas could be a real challenge for him to continue that streak, though. He finished 33rd in the last road course race at Daytona and has four top-10s from nine road course races. He finished fifth in the Clash earlier this season, but this week's race may come with more risk than have the past few weeks on ovals.
Bubba Wallace – Wallace's drive to an 11th-place finish Sunday at Dover was overshadowed by Hendrick's domination at the front of the field. Wallace and team have been showing signs of competitiveness regularly since the start of the season, and the same was on display again on Dover's concrete mile. Wallace started 22nd and just missed out on his first top-10 finish of the season. Sunday's result was his best of the season and shouldn't be a surprise to fantasy players at this point. This week's race may be one fantasy players opt to give him a rest, however. Wallace has never scored a top-20 on a road course in his Cup Series career, but his effort Sunday should generate optimism for later in the season.
DOWNGRADE
Kyle Busch – Busch was suffering from a sour engine almost as quickly as the race got started Sunday. The team opened the hood and got their man back to speed in the second stage, but he was already seven laps down. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver isn't under as much pressure as he was this time last season due to his win at Kansas, but the team is still suffering from a lack of consistency. Busch already won on a road course this season with the Busch Clash victory in the unofficial season kickoff. He also has wins at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen. Busch has traditionally been a good fantasy option when the series visits road courses.
Aric Almirola – Almirola seemed to be having a day that would reverse his horrific start to the 2021 season, but while running inside the top 15 he suffered a right-front tire failure that put him into the outside wall. It was a significant impact that took him completely out of the race. Terrible has been the adjective of the season for him and the No. 10 team, and they continue to search for something positive to build on. His poor season coupled with a lack of road course success makes him a less than ideal choice for fantasy rosters this week, too. Almirola only has two top-10 finishes on road courses. His best results in the last six road course races has been a pair of 12th-place finishes at Watkins Glen and in this season's Busch Clash.
Martin Truex Jr. – Truex led early from pole Sunday at Dover, but suffered multiple problems that kept him from challenging the Hendrick Chevrolets at the front. Slight damage to the splitter and then going the wrong direction on adjustments put him deep in the field in the middle of the race. After those mistakes he was unable to return to contention and limped home to a 19th-place finish. It was a day that no team had anything for Hendrick, but the No. 19 team's mistakes magnified the disparities between the organizations. Truex remains a consistent reliable option for fantasy rosters, and this week on a road course should not be any different. Though Chase Elliott has taken the helm of top drivers on road courses, Truex remains one of the best.
Brad Keselowski – Dover was another difficult weekend for Keselowski. The Penske Racing driver started in the middle of the pack and was stuck there most of the afternoon. He was able to snag a handful of stage points in both opening segments, but he faded to 16th by the finish. The result was his third finish of 14th or worse in the last five races, which is not the consistency or progress the team would be hoping for. They do have a win under the belts, which means they could be experimenting in preparation for the playoffs, but that type of approach is not helpful for fantasy players looking to amass points each week. This week's road course visit will be a test for him. He has nine top-10s on road courses from 25 tries with zero victories.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Daniel Suarez – Suarez grabbed his second top-10 finish of the season with an impressive run Sunday at Dover. The Trackhouse Racing Team driver continues to demonstrate his potential with the new organization. The car truly came to life in the final stage, and after the team gave him positive track position with quick pit stops in the final stage, Suarez was able to manage the remaining miles and finished ninth. Suarez is on a good run of form and has been building confidence and potential each week. He has two top-five road course finishes from 10 Cup Series starts, but both of those finishes came at Watkins Glen. His best road course finish since 2018 was 16th earlier this year at Daytona.
