Daytona 500 Duels Preview: Qualifying for the Daytona 500

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

Speedweeks 2025 will get underway with lap-timed qualifying. However, as a part of the qualifications and events, NASCAR uses twin qualifying races to determine most of the starting grid for the Daytona 500. These two 150-mile qualifying races (60 laps each) set the odds and evens on the starting grid and give the fans a good taste of the action that will be coming their way on Sunday. Most fantasy racing leagues don't recognize this heat race doubleheader in the fantasy racing season, but some do along with many daily fantasy racing games and racing pools that form specifically for the Duels. The competition is open to all NASCAR Cup Series teams who are entered for the Daytona 500. The Duels are how NASCAR determines which teams make the field for the Great American Race, and which teams have to pack up and head home because they didn't make the cut for the 40-car field.

NASCAR determines the pole position and outside pole position based on lap-time qualifying runs on the prior day (Wednesday evening). Once the front row is locked in after timed qualifying runs, the odds from timed qualifying make up the field of Duel 1 and the evens make the field of Duel 2. In last season's twin qualifying races, we had a field of 21 drivers in each of the two Duels. We should see similar, if not greater numbers this season. 

These twin qualifiers are unlike our normal NASCAR events due to the split field and 150-mile sprint race for a starting grid spot. It typically creates conservative racing among the favorites since you need to preserve that car for the Daytona 500, and it creates frantic racing among the teams not locked into the Daytona 500. Those drivers and teams are scrambling and taking risks for every spot they can grab in order to make the field for the Great American Race. For our statistical analysis, we've looked back at the past two seasons of superspeedway racing to get a feel for our top contenders this week.  Below are the statistics for the last eight Cup Series events on superspeedway ovals. These include Daytona and Talladega.    

These twin qualifiers are unlike the typical Cup Series events, so we'll handle the prognostications a bit different as well.  We'll give you our picks for who'll contend for the win in either of the Duels. The fields will be set after lap-time qualifying (Wednesday, February 12) which is the day before the Duels, so you'll have to match up which driver competes in which race. 

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Ryan Blaney – The four-time superspeedway winner and one-time Duel winner has been one of the top performers on the big ovals in recent seasons. He's racked up two wins, five Top-5 finishes and 169 laps led between Daytona and Talladega since his 2021 victory in Daytona. Blaney is a one-time winner of the Duels (2018) and he finished a strong third-place in two of his last three Duels, leading a combined 53 laps in those events. Simply put, we've seen a whole lot of Blaney racing up front in these superspeedway events of the last few years. The Penske Racing star had some tough luck but undeniable speed on these big oval events in 2024. We believe the new year and new season will help him hit the reset button on what has been his best ovals in the series.     

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is a three-time winner of the Duels (2008, 2014 and 2017) and he is one of the more dominant superspeedway performers of this generation. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a three-time Daytona 500 winner and as recently as 2020. With over 1,100-career laps led at Daytona and Talladega, you'll find few other drivers who know as well how to get around superspeedways. Hamlin has had a tough bit of luck on the big ovals the past two seasons, but that does little to discount his knowledge and skill in this form of racing. His last appearance on a superspeedway was last fall in Talladega and he drove his No. 11 Toyota to a steady 10th-place finish in the YellaWood 500. A new season and renewed luck could manifest itself in a Duel victory for Hamlin and the No. 11 Toyota team.

Chris Buescher – The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran is a one-time Duel victor (2022) and he's only finished outside the Top 10 in all his Duels once since the 2016 season. Buescher has been a strong and consistent performer in the Daytona qualifying races. The driver of the No. 17 Ford is a one-time Daytona winner and it was the summer race of 2023. He seems to have only gotten better with age in this form of NASCAR racing. Buescher has led over 50 laps at Daytona, and most of those have come since the 2021 season. He cracks the Top 10 at this oval a sturdy 44-percent and he's done it in three of his last four Daytona starts. Buescher is a name that most won't consider, but he should not be overlooked in this qualifying race.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – He's an underdog most NASCAR Cup Series weekends, but this veteran driver has made a big impact in superspeedway throughout his career and especially of late. Stenhouse has grabbed two wins the last two seasons, including the 2023 Daytona 500. In fact, all four of his career wins have come on superspeedway ovals. The driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet has never won a Daytona Duel, but he did finish runner-up in 2019 and he led 15 laps in last season's Duel race before getting rolled up in a late-race crash. The bottom line is that this driver and team know how to succeed in this form of racing and will have slugger's chance in Thursday's Daytona Duel.             

Chase Elliott – Coming off the big win in the pre-season Clash exhibition race, Elliott brings a lot of momentum to Daytona for Speed Weeks. He's a two-time winner of the Duel races and he's finished inside the Top 5 of each of the last four Duels dating back to 2021. His last two seasons of superspeedway racing have been fraught with bad luck, although the No. 9 Chevrolet has displayed good speed in those events. A short, 60-lap battle from green to checkers could be just what the doctor ordered for this driver and team. Elliott will want to carry the momentum of his Clash win into the regular season, so we will see a very motivated driver in the Daytona Duels.         

Joey Logano – Logano is the 2015 Daytona 500 winner and he cracks the Top 10 at this oval at a reasonable 34-percent. He's also finished in the Top 5 at Daytona a respectable eight times over his career. As far as the Duels are concerned, Logano has had extensive success in these qualifying races. The Penske Racing star has won three Duels and finished runner-up twice in them all since 2016. The speed Logano normally brings to Daytona is perfect for this 60-lap shootout. The veteran driver has had some tough luck finishing these superspeedway races the past two seasons, but his luck is bound to turn at some point. Logano has led 79 combined laps in his last two Daytona points races but crashed out of both of them.  

Austin Cindric – The 2022 Daytona 500 winner has amazingly finished runner-up in his last three Daytona Duels. It's been a bumpy first couple seasons in the NASCAR Cup Series for Cindric, but he has excelled at superspeedway performance. The driver of the No. 2 Ford returns to Daytona this week to kick off a new season and look to challenge for another Harley J. Earl Trophy. Cindric has had good speed on the superspeedway ovals the last couple of seasons but the finishes have been hard to come by. He's qualified on the outside pole of the last two Talladega races and led 45-combined laps but found trouble in both of those events. Cindric has performed similarly in his last two Daytona races, but luck has been against him in good finishes.

Brad Keselowski – The seven-time superspeedway winner has enjoyed a bit of a resurgence on the big tracks that last couple seasons. Keselowski has led a combined 70 laps over the last two seasons between Daytona and Talladega and that ranks him among the elite in the series. He's nabbed three runner-up finishes during that time on the superspeedways and posted a very consistent and reliable 13.3 average finish over the span. The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford is a one-time winner of the Duels and very recently (2022). Talladega has always been his better of the two big ovals, but Keselowski's Daytona accomplishments are not to be overlooked. He won the 2016 Daytona night race and he finished runner-up in that same event in 2023.

William Byron – Byron has always been a hit-or-miss superspeedway performer to this point in his NASCAR Cup Series career. However, he is coming off the best two-season stretch on these ovals of his Cup Series career. The Hendrick Motorsports star grabbed a big win in the Daytona 500 last year and a runner-up finish at Talladega in the fall of '23. Byron has posted a 75-percent Top-10 rate on the big ovals of Daytona and Talladega over the past two seasons and put up a strong 11.1 average finish (best in the series) over that time. He's a one-time winner of the Duels (2020) and he always qualifies extremely well for this event (2.3 average start). Byron should have good speed and a sluggers chance in this week's Daytona Duel.