Cook Out Southern 500 Preview: Championship Chase Begins

The Track Too Tough to Tame is the site this weekend for the first race in the 2021 Chase for the Cup.  NASCAR changed the schedule last season and moved the start of the Chase from Las Vegas to the unique oval in Darlington.  Darlington Raceway is an egg-shaped 1.366-mile oval unlike any race track on the circuit.  It's not an intermediate oval and not a superspeedway, but somewhere in between.  

The course has two distinctly different sets of turns.  Turns 3 and 4 are much narrower than turns 1 and 2.  This is a challenging aspect for crew chiefs as the handling setup for the stock cars is a bit more complex.  You have to find a happy "middle ground" for your handling set up so that one set of turns doesn't upset the car.  All this combined with the 23-25-degree variable banking, and wide racing grooves makes for some of the most exciting, side-by-side racing that NASCAR has to offer.  

The first thing that the casual fan will notice when watching a race at Darlington Raceway is how high the cars run through the turns.  On most ovals, the preferred line is low and tight to the inside lines, but Darlington is a very unique facility.  Most drivers prefer to run the high line right out next to the wall and carry that momentum into the straight-aways as they accelerate coming out of the turns.  This historic oval's unique configuration almost always makes the high groove the fastest way around the race track.  Considering that we just came from the three-wide racing action of Daytona, we're in for a big change this weekend.  The rim-riding action under the lights of Darlington on Sunday night can be as entertaining as any event in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.

We'll need to take into account several factors this weekend.  First, we'll need to examine the current hot streaks, as the trending drivers should carry their streaks of success or struggles into Darlington.  Second, we'll need to look at how the drivers have performed on similar ovals this season.  The intermediate oval is the most widely used track on the circuit, so we have plenty of data to examine.  Lastly, we'll take an in-depth look at the race earlier this season at Darlington Raceway.  That data will have some relevance for this weekend, even though that event was held way back in May.  The crew chiefs' notes should be very helpful for the teams that finished well that weekend to repeat their success this weekend.

Figuring out our driver group this weekend won't be too much of a challenge.  The recent hot streaks coming into the weekend will prove to be a bit of a wrinkle, but historical trends should run pretty true.  We have already raced once at Darlington earlier this season, so we have very good and very recent data to examine.  There is small group of drivers that perform well at the South Carolina oval, and as you will see in the table below, they're quite easy to identify.  The loop stats in the table below cover the last 16 years or 19 races at Darlington Raceway.

When we take a look at the loop stats in the table above, we immediately notice that there is quite a bit of parity between the different manufacturers and super stables in the NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington.  Ford and Toyota have each visited victory lane in the last nine races at the South Carolina oval.  Chevrolet has been shut out since 2014, and is looking to end a long dry spell at the egg-shaped track.  Toyota drivers have had the most success at the facility in the last few seasons.  Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have racked up six of the last nine victories at the 1.366-mile oval.  In addition to that Toyota driver, Martin Truex Jr., visited victory lane at Darlington back in early-May.  The way the No. 19 JGR team is performing right now, that has to put some confidence in what has been an inconsistent team coming to South Carolina this weekend to start the playoffs.

Last season's Darlington winners, Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick, are both still winless for 2021.  They'll be encouraged as well to be visiting the friendly oval of Darlington to kick off the Chase.  Both are multi-race winners at this track and could really use the boost a victory would provide to start the playoffs.  If Chevrolet hopes to regain the top of the heap at the Tack Too Tough to Tame, a handful of drivers from the bowtie brand will lead the way.  Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch and William Byron will lead the way for this manufacturer.  Larson will likely be the lead contender of this quartet.  He's been very strong this season and finished runner-up at Darlington Raceway in May.  Assuming these Chevrolet drivers and the other contenders can avoid the "Darlington Stripe," a NASCAR slang term for scraping the outside wall at this historic oval, then anything could happen in this 500-mile event.  Here are the fantasy racing drivers you need to put in your lineups for Sunday night's Cookout Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – The regular season NASCAR champion comes to Darlington to kick off his playoff run at the Cup Series title.  Fortunately for Larson, this is one of his better ovals.  He's never won at the Track Too Tough to Tame, but he's finished runner-up or third in his last three starts at the South Carolina oval.  Larson has led 500-career laps at this facility and breaks the Top 5 at a surprising 57-percent rate.  The high-line, wall-hugging racing of Darlington Raceway really suits Larson's driving skills well.  He loves the rim-riding action of this track.  You really couldn't have hand-picked a better race track for the Hendrick Motorsports star to kick off his championship quest.  The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet will be the man to beat Sunday night.      

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is a must-start in fantasy racing leagues this week.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has yet to find victory lane this season, but we hit the reset button for the Chase for the Cup.  Hamlin has impeccable Darlington stats with three wins and 14 Top-10 finishes in 18-career starts.  That works out to a stellar 78-percent Top-10 rate at this unique oval.  With close to 600 laps led in 18-career starts, it's clear that Hamlin knows how to race the Track Too Tough to Tame.  His last start at the South Carolina oval in May saw Hamlin lead 5 laps and finish fifth in the Goodyear 400.  Hamlin is always a threat to win at Darlington Raceway. 

Chase Elliott – The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion will kick off his title defense Sunday at Darlington.  Elliott has been tuning up his performance of late with this in mind.  He has a series-high 171 laps led over the last five events and has collected two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes.  We believe morale and motivation are already at a high level in the No. 9 Chevrolet team.  Elliott has nine-career starts at Darlington Raceway with two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in those efforts.  Those are not eye-popping numbers, but we remember well how close Elliott came to winning here last season.  The talented youngster led 114 laps but ran into trouble and finished 20th in the Cook Out Southern 500.  We expect the outcome will be much different this time around.    

William Byron – Byron has been very fast leading up to the Chase for the Cup, but his luck has been a bit uneven.  Still, he should bring a fast No. 24 Chevrolet into Sunday night's Darlington race.  Byron has led 30-combined laps in the last two events and finished runner-up at Michigan.  The young driver is just a tick off winning one of these high profile races.  The Track Too Tough to Tame will be a golden opportunity for Byron.  He looked very impressive in his last two starts at this facility.  He finished fifth-place in this event one year ago and he topped that with a strong fourth-place finish at Darlington earlier this season.  Byron will be in the mix for the win in the Cook Out Southern 500. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Ryan Blaney – Blaney is a big wildcard in this event.  He doesn't have the best career stats at Darlington Raceway, but he's currently the hottest driver in the NASCAR Cup Series.  The Penske Racing youngster has won two-straight events and has four Top-5 finishes in the last five races.  Blaney is surging at the right time with the playoffs starting.  On the bright side of his Darlington stats, the driver of the No. 12 Ford posted a career-best Darlington finish in his last start here.  Blaney collected an eighth-place finish in May's Goodyear 400.  It appears he's warming up to the high-line racing that it takes to be successful at Darlington Raceway.    

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is not running his best entering the Chase for the Cup, but Darlington and the playoffs should kick start Truex's performance.  The veteran driver loves racing at this track and he's a two-time Darlington winner.  Truex won this season's Goodyear 400 in a completely dominant performance.  His nine Top 10's at the Track Too Tough to Tame check in at a very respectable 50-percent rate.  This is encouraging for Truex as we know he and his team will up their game for this weekend.  The driver of the No. 19 Toyota finished a respectable 10th-place two weeks ago on the big oval of Michigan and we expect he'll be even sharper this Sunday night.           

Kevin Harvick – The good news for Harvick is that he made the playoff field despite being winless this season.  Now the points reset which gives this veteran driver a good reset for the next 10 races.  For what Harvick lacked in excellence earlier in his career at this oval, he's very quickly making up for in the present.  The veteran driver now has three poles, three wins, one runner-up finish and well over 700 laps led in his last 11 Darlington starts.  That has led to an amazing 11-race Top-10 streak at the Track Too Tough to Tame entering this weekend.  This high-groove style of racing has been a big success for Harvick and the No. 4 SHR team.  He'll be on his game in Sunday's Cook Out Southern 500.

Kyle Busch – Busch's one Darlington win is not particularly recent, so he's not a major threat to win this race.  However, his consistency at this facility has been pretty flawless for most of his career.  Busch rides a three-race Darlington Top-10 streak into this weekend's action.  That has boosted his career stats to 13 Top-10 finishes at the Track Too Tough to Tame for a strong 68-percent Top-10 rate.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has led 725 career laps at this facility, so Busch is not just riding in line when he races here.  The driver of the No. 18 Toyota has never registered a DNF at Darlington in 19-career starts, so that is a great peace of mind statistic to consider before deploying Busch in your fantasy racing lineups this weekend.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Darlington & solid upside

Kurt Busch – Busch has been one of the more consistent drivers of the Summer.  He has one win and six Top-10 finishes in the last 10 events and enters this weekend in good position as the playoffs begin.  Darlington Raceway has become a very successful track for the veteran driver in the last several seasons.  Five of his last seven starts at the Track Too Tough to Tame have netted Top-10 finishes.  That now makes 11-career Top 10's for Busch at this challenging oval, and it has boosted his career average to 41-percent.  With the playoffs starting the No. 1 Chevy team gets to hit the ground running this weekend.  Busch will be fast and competitive in Sunday night's Cookout Southern 500.

Alex Bowman – Coming off a seventh-place finish at Daytona last week, Bowman is getting the ship righted just in time for the Chase.  His spot in the playoff field was secured by a career-best three victories in 2021.  Now Bowman will attempt to make a deep drive into the playoffs.  Darlington Raceway has not been a good oval for the young driver.  The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet has a pair of Top-10 finishes in the last for starts at the South Carolina oval.  The average finish over that span stands at a strong 10.8.  The intermediate and larger ovals have been a sweet spot for Bowman this season, so the Darlington event comes at a great time for this driver and team.           

Christopher Bell – The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has hit a bit of a cold streak the last three races, but we have good reason to believe he'll rebound in this first race of the Chase.  Before the recent cool streak, Bell had reeled off four-straight Top 10's at a wide variety of tracks.  He's always been a good performer on the steeper banked ovals, and Darlington certainly fits that bill.  While the Joe Gibbs Racing youngster hasn't yet cracked the Top 10 at the Track Too Tough to Tame, he does have a pair of Top-15 finishes in his last three starts at Darlington.  In this weekend's very important fifth-career start at this challenging oval, Bell should start to show what he's learned here the last two seasons.

Erik Jones – The Richard Petty Motorsports veteran recently signed an extension into 2022 with the No. 43 Chevrolet team.  That good news has coincided with this strong performance on the race track of late.  Jones has one Top 10 and two Top 15's in the last three events for a strong 12.0 average across the span.  Now he heads to an oval that's been wildly successful for him during his Cup Series career.  Jones boasts one victory, four Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes in his seven career starts at Darlington Raceway.  Granted, most of those starts came with Joe Gibbs Racing, but it still demonstrates his ability in this style of high-groove racing.  Jones should surely crack the Top 15 this weekend and potentially the Top 10 in the Cook Out Southern 500.    

Tyler Reddick – Reddick raced extremely well over the Summer and earned a richly-deserved spot in this season's Chase for the Cup field.  His fifth-place finish in the regular season finale at Daytona this past week was like an exclamation point on that good work.  Now the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet will focus on performing well in his first NASCAR playoffs.  Reddick has had some success at the Track Too Tough to Tame.  His one Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in four starts works out to a respectable 13.8 average finish.  Reddick led 2 laps and finished 12th-place here in May of this year, and we'll wager he performs even better this Sunday evening. 

Matt DiBenedetto – DiBenedetto has been racing well the last couple months.  His four Top-10 and six Top-15 finishes in the last seven races has him running in top form entering the weekend, despite not being part of the Chase for the Cup.  Since the journeyman driver moved into better equipment in 2019, his level of performance at this facility has gone in the right direction.  DiBenedetto's last five starts at Darlington Raceway have yielded two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes for a respectable 14.2 average finish.  That's a full 6.5 spots better than his career average finish at this oval.  The driver of the No. 21 Ford is racing well right now and should be a slam dunk for a Top-15 finish in this 500-mile battle.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Joey Logano – The last several weeks have been tough for Logano.  Bad luck and poor performance have conspired to derail the Penske Racing veteran's season.  Logano is currently mired in a four-race Top-10 drought and has two DNF's in that span.  He's coming off a subpar 23rd-place finish at Daytona last weekend.  Darlington Raceway has been a mediocre track at best for the driver of the No. 22 Ford.  Logano is winless at the Track Too Tough to Tame and he has a 47-percent Top-10 rate at the South Carolina oval.  Over his last five starts at Darlington he's batting just 40-percent for a Top-10 rate, so that's lower than his career average.  It may be best to bench Logano this weekend and wait to see if he can turn things around further into the Chase.    

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star is mired in a similar slump to his teammate, Joey Logano.  With just one Top 10 in the last four races, Keselowski limps into the NASCAR playoffs.  His stats at Darlington Raceway is somewhat similar to Logano's (47-percent Top-10 rate) but he does boast a win here in 2018.  However, Keselowski's start here in May of this year ended in a disappointing 24th-place finish after starting the Goodyear 400 on the pole.  This driver and team's recent inconsistency and Keselowski's very par numbers at the oval make for a bad combination this weekend.  It seems he'll be battling uphill to earn at Top 10 in the Cook Out Southern 500. 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Times have been pretty lean for veteran Stenhouse.  He's only visited the Top 10 once in the last 10 events and even his Daytona performance this past week (22nd-place) was disappointing by his superspeedway measures.  The veteran driver is limping into the schedule's last 10 races.  Unfortunately, Darlington Raceway will not be the track to help him turn things around.  He's labored for years at this tough race track.  Stenhouse has just one Top-15 finish in 11-career starts at Darlington, and an inflated average finish of 24.7.  His recent level of performance coupled with his very lean history at Darlington are warning signs not to deploy this weekend.

Michael McDowell – McDowell has had a very good season in many respects.  His first-career win in this season's Daytona 500 has propelled the No. 34 Ford team into the NASCAR playoffs for the first time.  However, the veteran driver has gone stone cold in the last couple months.  McDowell has no Top-20 finishes in his last seven starts and he's fresh off an engine failure and DNF at Daytona this past week.  He'll look to hit the reset button at Darlington this weekend to kick off the Chase, but McDowell faces a very stiff challenge.  This track has been very stingy to him over the years.  The Front Row Motorsports driver has never cracked the Top 15 at Darlington and has an inflated 28.3 average finish at this facility.  He makes a shaky fantasy racing play this Sunday evening.