Coke Zero Sugar 400 Preview: Cut to the Chase

We return to racing under the lights this week.  The NASCAR Cup Series travels back to where the season started this weekend at Daytona International Speedway for the Coke Zero Sugar 400. The second Daytona race of the season has historically been held July 4th week every year.  However, last season's schedule shakeup has moved this thrilling night race to the final race of NASCAR's regular season.  This event will be the cut race to the playoffs, NASCAR's Chase for the Cup.  The added urgency to improve one's playoff position or to make it into the field will ratchet the pressure up to 11 on a 10-scale. 

Unlike the Daytona 500, the NASCAR Cup Series races under the lights for this dramatic and entertaining racing event.  This will be the third superspeedway race of the 2021 season, so we should now begin to see some trends forming on these larger ovals.  With the same aero-rules package being used for the second time this season at Daytona, we hope to see some the same racing that made the Daytona 500 a competitive and exciting affair.  If the drivers can duplicate the action we saw in June at Talladega, we should be in for a thrilling ride this Saturday night.  

The 500-mile race at Talladega Superspeedway earlier this season featured 35 lead changes among 17 different drivers for a very thrilling event.  The Daytona 500 only offered 22 lead changes, so we will see if more lead swaps will happen this weekend after two superspeedway races are in the bank with this rules package.  The pack racing that super speedways create lead to lots of lead changes and parity in these events.  However, we also need to remember the 18 cars that DNF'd at Daytona is also a season high mark, and really illustrates the luck side of the equation in this style of racing too.  So we have to be mindful of the multi-car crashes that the pack racing produces and the luck factor that is associated with this style of racing.  We should be in for that same style of fireworks in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 this weekend.  With this event at Daytona being held at night it always introduces a new dynamic to this style of racing.  While there are many parallels we'll be able to draw from the Daytona 500, we fully expect the action in Saturday night's race to have its own unique characteristics.

Since this is the second race of the season at DIS, we can look back to February's Daytona 500 and even the race at Talladega this summer for some indications on which teams are running at top speed on the superspeedway ovals.  This information will for the foundation of our picks for this week's race.  We'll also pay close attention to the historical data at Daytona International Speedway.  While average finish position is not always a good statistic to rely on at these huge tracks, the loop stats will illustrate the drivers that lead laps, make quality passes and dominate at Daytona on a regular basis.  The data shown below covers the last 16 years or 33 races at Daytona International Speedway.

Front Row Motorsports' Michael McDowell won this year's Daytona 500.  The victory made him an upset, first-time winner of the Great American Race.  The driver of the No. 34 Ford has always been a consistent performer at the Daytona track, but he pulled off the major upset that February afternoon with his last lap pass of Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski.  The mayhem of the last lap of the Daytona 500 made for a perfect situation for McDowell, and he wasted no time seizing that opportunity.  When the series traveled to Talladega in late April it was a total free-for-all, but Denny Hamlin managed to lead the most laps with 43.  Matt DiBenedetto would also lead 28 laps, but would come up short of victory lane.  It would be Keselowski walking away with that victory, thanks to NASCAR overtime and some more last-lap heroics.  The theme so far in 2021 on superspeedway ovals has been Ford.  Although they've had a lean season, they've showed up with fast cars on these big ovals. 

While he didn't win either race, Kevin Harvick will be looking to make his mark this Saturday night.  He finished an impressive fourth-place at Talladega in the late Spring, and he finished a superb fourth-place in the Daytona 500.  Harvick led a number of laps and was a factor in both races, and a serious threat to win.  Aside from Harvick, the other Ford driver making headlines coming into Daytona is Ryan Blaney.  He's fresh off his second win of the season at Michigan this past Sunday and riding a wave of momentum into the regular season finale.  Blaney has won two superspeedway events since 2019, both at Talladega.  Will the Penske Racing youngster be able to step up his game at Daytona?  Those among many other questions will be answered this Saturday night.  We'll take a look at recent history, and the 2021 Daytona 500 and give you the drivers you need this weekend to win your fantasy racing league.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – Although he's still winless for 2021, the three-time Daytona winner has been the most dominant Daytona performer in recent seasons.  Hamlin has three Daytona 500 victories dating back to 2016 and he rides a three-race Daytona Top-5 streak into Saturday night's action.  With well over 600-career laps led at the Florida speedway, he knows all too well what it takes to race up front here and win.  Hamlin would lead 98 laps in this season's Daytona 500, but slip to fifth-place by the checkered flag.  This driver and team are the outfit to beat each time we visit one of these superspeedway ovals, and especially at Daytona.  Hamlin is the driver you build your fantasy racing team around this weekend.       

Ryan Blaney – The Penske Racing youngster is riding a wave of momentum into Daytona after his big win last Sunday in Michigan.  The No. 12 Ford team needed a boost before the playoffs began and it appears they're making it happen.  Blaney has two victories and one runner-up finish in his last seven superspeedway races.  While those wins came at Talladega, the runner-up finish did come at Daytona last season.  He showed good speed at Talladega earlier this year with 11 laps led and a strong ninth-place finish in the GEICO 500.  This young driver has flirted with victory lane more than once at Daytona, but has yet to cash in.  Blaney will be in the mix for the win in this 400-mile battle under the lights.             

Chase Elliott – The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion has finished runner-up in his last two Daytona starts.  Elliott has been steadily getting better at this oval and the time to win may have finally arrived.  He picked up his first-career superspeedway win in the Spring of 2019 at Talladega and he's been upping his game on these large ovals ever since.  The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has grabbed two runner-up and three Top-5 finishes in his last four combined starts between Daytona and Talladega.  The speed to win is present and Elliott is getting the experience to make it finally happen.  He's a bit of lesser odds favorite compared to Hamlin and Blaney, but make no mistake Elliott possesses homerun potential in this race.

William Byron – The driver that not many see coming this weekend is likely Byron and his No. 24 Chevrolet team.  He is coming off a strong near-victory performance at Michigan.  Byron led 18 laps and was strong at the end of last Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400 en route to the second-place finish.  The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has a win and runner-up finish in his last four Daytona starts.  Byron also has a runner-up finish this Spring at Talladega to boot.  The No. 24 Chevrolet team's performance on these big superspeedway ovals the last two seasons has been very impressive.  Byron has led 48-combined laps in just his last five superspeedway starts.  This young driver has the speed and skill to grab a win at Daytona this Saturday night.  

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kevin Harvick – Harvick is still winless for the 2021 season but that could change after Saturday night's Coke Zero Sugar 400.  The veteran SHR driver has enviable career numbers racing at Daytona International Speedway.  Harvick has two-career victories and 16 Top-10 finishes at the historic speedway in Florida.  The driver of the No. 4 Ford started eighth on the grid in this season's Daytona 500 and peddled to an impressive fourth-place finish.  Harvick then went to Talladega in the Spring and grabbed another fourth-place finish.  The veteran cracks the Top 10 at a steady 40-percent at the Daytona oval, so even if he doesn't pull the upset when he's very likely to be a face among the Top 10 at Daytona.   

Kyle Larson – The impressive Hendrick Motorsports star isn't the top name we think of when it comes to superspeedway racing, but 2021 has been a season to redefine expectations for this driver and his No. 5 Chevrolet team.  Larson has been improving at Daytona in recent visits and has three Top-10 finishes in his last four starts as proof of this fact.  Even as strong as he's been the last couple seasons between Talladega and Daytona, he's still not a big lap leader or big threat to win.  However, Larson is becoming more skilled at the art of navigating the big-pack draft and staying out of trouble.  Those are two big keys in bringing home Top-10 finishes at tracks like Daytona International Speedway. 

Kurt Busch – Busch has had some second half of the season after his slow start to 2021.  Since early-June, the driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has grabbed one win, three Top-5 and seven Top-10 finishes in the last 10 races.  This level of performance has made Busch one of the top performing drivers of the Summer.  Superspeedway racing has been tough on this veteran driver of late, but we believe his current level of performance and his Daytona history outweighs that minor concern.  Busch's 18-career Top-10 finishes at Daytona International Speedway check in at an above average 45-percent rate.  He also cracks the Top 5 at an impressive 33-percent rate at DIS.  Crashes and bad luck have taken their toll on Busch in recent races, but we believe he'll shake that monkey off his back in Saturday's Coke Zero Sugar 400. 

Michael McDowell – This weekend we return to the scene of McDowell's big Daytona 500 victory.  The Front Row Motorsports veteran shocked the world on the last lap of this season's Great American Race and grabbed his first-career Cup Series win and first Daytona victory.  Repeating that performance may prove difficult, but as McDowell showed with his impressive third-place finish at Talladega in April, the speed and skill on these big ovals is no fluke.  The No. 34 Ford has great top end speed and McDowell knows how to pilot it during these intense races.  He's always been a respectable performer at Daytona with a 35-percent career Top-10 rate that has been largely built with smaller, underfunded teams.       

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Daytona & solid upside

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski used to be the gold standard when it comes to superspeedway racing, but his performances have cooled a bit in the last few seasons.  We've moved him to the sleepers list for this very reason, but we still need to keep him on our fantasy radar for the pure homerun potential.  While the Penske Racing star has had more success and collected more trophies at the Alabama oval, he does bring some value to Daytona.  Keselowski won this event five seasons ago in a dominant performance.  He led 115 laps and pounded the field into the pavement for his first-ever Daytona win.  The risk side of the equation is that he's crashed out of seven of his last nine Daytona races.  Keselowski is simply too good in this style of racing for this to continue for much longer.       

Austin Dillon – It's been a pretty solid season for Dillon and the No. 3 team, and he had a strong car at Michigan last weekend so expectations are high coming to Daytona.  Superspeedway racing has always been a strength for Dillon although more recent starts have been a bit lean.  The Richard Childress Racing driver has always fared better at the Daytona oval than at Talladega.  Eight of his 16-career starts (50-percent) at the Florida speedway have netted Top-10 finishes, and that includes the 2018 Daytona 500 victory and his third-place finish in this season's Daytona 500.  Dillon has been good as gold on his better ovals this season, and Daytona is the perfect setup to keep that trend going forward.  For weekly lineup fantasy leagues, he makes a perfect play for salary cap or limited start games. 

Tyler Reddick – The young Richard Childress Racing driver is thick in the battle to make the Chase for the Cup playoff field and you can bet he'll be focused like a laser this weekend.  Reddick has yet to post any major accomplishments at Daytona, but it's clear from his improving Talladega resume that he's learning some things about this style of racing in his third season of Cup Series competition.  Reddick's last two starts at Talladega have netted a pair of seventh-place finishes.  That didn't happen by accident and shows he's been learning the ropes.  All of Reddick's finishes to this point at Daytona have been efforts outside the Top 25.  We believe that will change this weekend.  Reddick's current momentum, playoff standing and his improving skill in this style of racing point to a potential Top-10 finish.    

Ross Chastain – Chastain's full-time return to the Cup Series has had its highs and lows, but the big oval racing has been a mark on the positive side of the ledger.  The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran earned a strong seventh-place finish in this season's Daytona 500.  Chastain then went on to Talladega in April and led 12 laps before eventually being shuffled and finishing a respectable 16th-place.  The driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet has a good amount of superspeedway experience in his past.  Chastain has 13-career Xfinity Series starts at Daytona International Speedway, and he's earned one victory and seven Top 10's in those starts for a strong 54-percent Top-10 rate.  This veteran driver understands the ins-and-outs of superspeedway racing and should challenge the Top 10 in the Coke Zero Sugar 400.

Kaz Grala – Kaulig Racing will put this young driver behind the wheel of the team's No. 16 Chevrolet this weekend for a spot start at Daytona.  Grala makes the perfect fantasy play in deeper tiers of weekly lineup and salary cap leagues.  The Kaulig team has a long tradition of superspeedway excellence in the Xfinity Series, and they've shown some flashes in their limited Cup starts on these big ovals.  Grala made the start in the Daytona 500 and led 10 laps before getting into a big, mid-race crash.  The young driver shook that off and showed great speed at Talladega in the Spring to finish a brilliant sixth-place in the GEICO 500.  Grala also has a pair of Top-5 finishes in his two-career Xfinity starts at Daytona.  For a driver just 22-years-old, he's shown a lot of skill and maturity in this style of racing.      

Chase Briscoe – The Stewart Haas Racing rookie has suffered through some ups-and-downs this season, but he's been pretty adept at the big ovals.  Briscoe started 30th at Daytona earlier this season and peddled to a respectable 19th-place finish in his Daytona 500 debut.  The driver of the No. 14 Ford then showed what he learned a couple months later and finished a surprising 11th-place at Talladega in April.  This coincides nicely with his Xfinity Series stats at Daytona.  Briscoe's 50-percent Top-5 rate and 13.8 average finish across four starts shows his superspeedway skill.  Aside from road courses, which are his specialty, the big ovals have really been his bread and butter during his rookie season.     

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Joey Logano – Logano enters the weekend mired in a two-race DNF funk.  The No. 22 Penske Racing Ford team hasn't had much luck lately.  Unfortunately, at Daytona the overarching theme is luck.  Logano is a superior superspeedway performer with one Daytona and three Talladega victories to his credit.  However, times have been much leaner for this driver and team of late.  The last three seasons have seen Logano only crack the Top 10 twice in 10 starts between the two monster ovals.  He's crashed and DNF'd in five of his last six starts on superspeedways.  Logano has shown good speed and led a lot of laps in those events, but the luck side of the equation has been coming up short.  He makes for a high-risk, high-reward fantasy pick this Saturday night.   

Kyle Busch – Busch has been consistently fast at both Daytona and Talladega for much of his career.  Consistently finishing these races has always been the major issue.  There's good reason for continued pessimism.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star hasn't cracked the Top 10 on either the Talladega or Daytona oval since 2019.  His 20.3 average finish over the past three seasons is a bit concerning.  Busch's career averages show that this is his easily his least successful form of Cup Series racing.  His 14th- and 18th-place finishes this season at Daytona and Talladega are good reason to be concerned about his chances this Saturday night.  He won't likely measure up to his price tag in salary cap based leagues.                                                                                                

Daniel Suarez – The Trackhouse Racing veteran has had a pretty good season, but the superspeedway performance has been below the bar for what Suarez has done at other tracks.  Quite frankly, it should not come as much of a surprise because he struggled for other teams in this style of racing as well.  Suarez has just one Top-15 finish vs. four finishes outside the Top 30 in his last three seasons of racing at Daytona and Talladega.  The average finish checks in at an inflated 29.3 across the span.  This season alone has seen Suarez turn in 36th- and 23rd-place efforts at Daytona and Talladega.  The driver of the No. 99 Chevrolet has been rock-solid on short tracks, road courses and intermediate ovals for the most part, but this is likely a weekend to pass on Suarez.   

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran has not had a problem with speed of late, nor has finishes been a problem.  Truex has four Top 10's in his last six starts heading into Saturday's action.  However, superspeedway racing has been fraught with danger for this driver and team over the years, so the results have not consistently followed.  Truex did finish fourth in this event last season, but that's been the outlier.  This veteran has only five Top-10 finishes in 32 starts at this facility.  That works out to a lowly 16-percent Top-10 rate.  Truex has just one Top 10 in his last 10 superspeedway starts combined.  It's best to stash him on the bench this week, and save him for an intermediate oval in the upcoming schedule.