Coca-Cola 600 Preview: Memorial Day Marathon

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

This weekend NASCAR stays in North Carolina and comes to the intermediate oval in Charlotte. On the heels of this past weekend's All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro, we visit Charlotte Motor Speedway for the Coca-Cola 600. This has been the traditional event for Memorial Day weekend for many years now. This 600-mile marathon, the longest race of the season, is the perfect way to celebrate the long holiday weekend. Charlotte Motor Speedway sets the stage for this high speed, big stakes battle of survival. CMS is one of the NASCAR Cup Series' many 1.5-mile tri-ovals. It's very similar to both Atlanta & Texas in many respects, but the oval at Charlotte seems to produce more side-by-side racing than the other intermediate tracks. Horsepower is the name of the game at this high-speed oval, and the durability of the equipment is pushed to the max. The 400 laps run at during the Coca-Cola 600, under the lights, and late into the night take their toll on both the cars and the drivers. In summary, this race is about equipment preservation, driver preservation and fuel preservation. The long green flag runs we typically see in the 600 can often set up a fuel-mileage run to the finish, so crew chiefs have a lot to keep their eyes on in this very long race. The extra 100-miles raced may not seem like a lot, but rest assured it's enough to make a major difference in who wins and who loses this Sunday night.

This past week's unique All-Star Race at the 5/8-mile North Wilkesboro Speedway did little to prepare the teams for the Coca-Cola 600. While it was racing under the lights, the similarities end there. The 200 laps, short track and segments of the All-Star Race won't resemble most of the action we'll see at Charlotte this weekend. One thing is for sure, the 600-mile distance provides the teams with several pit stops and chances to improve the handling of their race cars. It will be the team that keeps up with the constantly changing surface and cooling evening air that will be doing a victory burnout at the end of the night at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The team that starts out this race the fastest doesn't always end the evening the fastest, as we have seen many times over the years. Some practice and qualifying laps this weekend will help to temper this factor some for the 600, but the race is so long that the track is never the same from a handling standpoint at 6 PM vs. 10 PM.     

We need to take a brief look at the historical loop stats for the oval at Charlotte. The extended length of this event does play a major factor in the performance of the drivers.  The long green flag runs and pit strategy we'll see in the Coca-Cola 600 cannot be replicated in any other race. For this event, the loop data from Charlotte Motor Speedway will play a significant role in our fantasy racing picks. The 1.5-mile oval in Charlotte has been a track of streaks the last few years, and that could make it an easily-predictable race this weekend. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 18 years or 33 races at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Chevrolet, Ford and Toyota teams have each won in the last three events at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The track that bowtie teams dominated for years has become a venue of parity the last few seasons. With Ryan Blaney's victory in this event one year ago, we'll see if CMS is tilting toward Ford this weekend in the Coca-Cola 600. Toyota driver, Denny Hamlin, won this event two years ago. He ran a smart and strategy-based race, rose late, overtook Kyle Busch in overtime and took the checkered flag at the end of 600 miles. Kyle Larson's victory in 2021 was Chevrolet's last victory at the Charlotte oval. If this manufacturer hopes to climb back over both Toyota and Ford, the burden will largely fall on Larson and his No. 5 Chevrolet team. 

Considering what we've seen to this point in 2024 on the cookie cutter ovals the two best-positioned drivers to win this Sunday night could be Larson and Hamlin. These two drivers have led a combined 604 laps and registered a combined two victories, and three Top-5 finishes in the last five 1.5-mile oval events. When all the variables are considered we could be looking at a new victor at Charlotte Motor Speedway this weekend. With so many young talents now in the NASCAR Cup Series, we could easily see a first-time Charlotte winner in the Coca-Cola 600. We'll outline below the drivers you need to stock up on to dominate your fantasy racing leagues at Charlotte Motor Speedway. 

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – The Hendrick Motorsports star is coming off an impressive victory at the similar sized oval at Kansas Speedway a few weeks ago and is riding great momentum into Memorial Day weekend. The return to Charlotte Motor Speedway should favor Larson very well in his pursuit to win his third race of the season. He's led 338 total laps on these style ovals in 2024 and has two victories so far (Las Vegas and Kansas). Larson is a one-time Charlotte winner (2021), and he's led close to 400 laps in just his last three starts at the facility. Given his current hot streak and his excellence on 1.5-mile ovals this season, Larson will be the man to beat in Sunday night's Coca-Cola 600.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has been a steady performer this season on the cookie cutter ovals. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has two Top-10 finishes in the four events and 139 laps led. The trend line has definitely been improving and Hamlin has been gathering steam. The veteran driver has 20 Top 10's at Charlotte in 32-career starts for a stellar 63-percent rate. Hamlin won this event two years ago for his first-career victory at Charlotte Motor Speedway. He qualified well and led laps in last season's Coca-Cola 600, but would get rolled up in a mid-race crash. Hamlin will rebound this time around. He is a driver to not underestimate this weekend at Charlotte.   

Chase Elliott – The No. 9 Chevrolet squad is the only team to finish inside the Top 3 in the last two intermediate oval races. Elliott nabbed a win at Texas and impressive third-place at Kansas a few weeks ago. He has been quite a performer at the Charlotte oval in recent races. Elliott has one win and three runner-up finishes at this track since the 2017 season. With close to 350 laps led in his career at Charlotte Motor Speedway, he's quite used to racing up front here. These recent performances have lowered his average finish to 15.5 at the Charlotte oval. Elliott cracks the Top 10 at a steady 50-percent rate at this facility. Considering how good he's looked in recent cookie cutter oval races, Elliott has to be considered a top contender in this 600-mile battle.   

Brad Keselowski – The two-time Charlotte winner has been racing well recently. Keselowski has one win (Darlington) and a pair of runner-up finishes (Fort Worth and Talladega) since the middle of April. The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has 10-career Top-10 finishes on the Charlotte oval spread across 24 starts. That works out to a reasonable 42-percent Top-10 rate and respectable 14.4 average finish. Keselowski typically finishes these 600-mile marathons and often finishes them on the lead lap. Staying around to the end of this marathon race is a huge key to winning it. The veteran driver has raced among the leaders for several weeks on these intermediate and larger ovals, Keselowski will be in the hunt Sunday night.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Tyler Reddick – Reddick has five-career Cup Series starts on the Charlotte oval, and he's managed an impressive four Top 10's in those efforts. In this event one year ago, Reddick collected a strong fifth-place finish in last season's Coca-Cola 600. The driver of the No. 45 Toyota for 23XI Racing has been coming on strong of late with laps led in four of his last five starts, one pole position, one win and two Top 5's. With finishes of second- and fourth-place on the similar ovals of Las Vegas and Texas this season, Reddick has been consistent and strong on the intermediate tracks. A good performance in Sunday night's Coca-Cola 600 seems fairly certain.  

Chris Buescher – The veteran driver of the No. 17 Ford overcame about a month-long stretch of poor finishes and roared back to life with a stunning runner-up finish at Kansas Speedway a few weeks ago. He was also in the running to win at Darlington before the All-Star break, but was taken out in the closing laps in a wreck among the leaders.  Buescher will look to keep the good speed and momentum rolling in the Coca-Cola 600. He has scored Top-10 finishes in four of his last six starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The average finish across that six-race span is a spotless 13.3. That's well below his career average finish at CMS of 18.2.

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex is a three-time Charlotte winner since 2016 and he's led well over 1,000 career laps at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The recent performance surge for the driver of the No. 19 Toyota at Charlotte Motor Speedway has brought up his Top-10 rate at the track to 44-percent and lowered his average finish to a very sound 13.7. The intermediate ovals have been kind to Truex this season with 13 laps led and seventh- and fourth-place finishes at Las Vegas and Kansas Speedway. The average finish in the four mid-sized oval events of this season stands at a strong 9.3. We believe this driver and team could equal or come close to the third-place finish he registered in last season's Coca-Cola 600.        

Kyle Busch – The Richard Childress Racing star rides a three-race Charlotte Top-10 streak into this Memorial Day weekend. Busch has led close to 1,500 career laps at Charlotte Motor Speedway and he cracks the Top 5 at a strong 46-percent rate. He finished a strong sixth-place in this event one year ago and really seems to like the 600-mile format at this track. The 63-percent career Top-10 rate at CMS speaks volumes of Busch's accomplishments here. His three Top 10's in four starts this season on 1.5-mile ovals and 11.5 average finish tell the story. Busch has been performing well on the cookie cutter ovals and he should continue to do so at Charlotte Motor Speedway.        

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Charlotte & solid upside

Christopher Bell – Bell has faced many challenges this season, but he seemingly rose above them recently with his outings at Kansas and Darlington. Kansas Speedway in particular is important as it's similar in size to Charlotte. Bell grabbed the pole position, led 5 laps and finished a strong sixth-place in that event. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has made five Cup Series starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway with two Top-10 finishes (40-percent) to his credit. Bell qualified well and led 48 laps in last season's Coca-Cola 600, but ran into some troubles and finished mid-pack. This driver and team has the capability to race to a Top-10 finish Sunday evening. 

William Byron – This driver and team has some boom and bust potential, so we're slotting Byron in the sleepers list this week. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet is a three-time pole winner at Charlotte, and has led 153 combined laps to this point. The cookie cutter tracks have held some recent success for this driver and team. Byron posted Top-10 finishes at Las Vegas and Texas, but had a recent disappearing act at Kansas, and that's where the risk enters the picture. Still, the Hendrick Motorsports star has a 43-percent Top-10 rate at this oval and raced to a very impressive runner-up finish in this event one year ago. Byron has homerun potential but he also carries some bust risks, so deploy in your fantasy racing lineups accordingly.

Daniel Suarez – Suarez was the toast of NASCAR when he staged his upset victory at Atlanta Motor Speedway earlier this season. He then followed it with a strong fifth-place finish at the Texas Motor Speedway. Both of these intermediate ovals are the steeper banked variety and more like Charlotte than both Las Vegas and Kansas. The Trackhouse Racing veteran doesn't have terribly impressive Charlotte stats, but we believe he's poised for a breakout this Sunday as the No. 99 team have looked very sharp on these big banked intermediate tracks. Most fantasy racing players will pass on deploying Suarez for the Coca-Cola 600, but we believe that would be a short sighted mistake.  

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star has struggled on cookie cutter ovals this season, with one Top 10 and a 20.5 average finish across the four events. However, we believe he's sleeper list worthy for the performance we just witnessed in the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro. The No. 22 Ford team finally showed some signs of life and we believe it will carry over. Logano is a one-time Charlotte winner (2015) and he cracks the Top 10 here at a respectable 44-percent rate. Logano is coming off a subpar 21st-place finish at Darlington before the All-Star break and looking to rebound to Top-10 form. Charlotte Motor Speedway provides a great opportunity for this veteran driver and team to get back to their Top 10 ways in the Coca-Cola 600 this Sunday night.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney won this event a year ago in a dominant performance and for that alone he's sleeper worthy this week. However, the current state of the No. 12 Ford team is that early-season Top 10's on intermediate tracks (Las Vegas and Atlanta) have been replaced by subpar performances more recently at Texas and Kansas. Still, Blaney has had a lot of success at Charlotte Motor Speedway since 2020 and that can't be overlooked. He's netted a victory and three Top-5 finishes in the last five Charlotte starts. He's also won on the ROVAL as well. This driver and team like this place if they have a car that will cooperate this weekend. Watch Blaney closely in the lead-up practice and qualifying as that may dictate his fantasy deployment for the 600.      

Bubba Wallace – With fifth-place and seventh-place finishes at both Atlanta and Texas, we would be stopping short to not mention Wallace and the No. 23 team this week. The 23XI Racing driver has been sharp on the steeper banked intermediate ovals and he's also had some success at Charlotte Motor Speedway. While that success hasn't been career-long, it has been recent. In this event one year ago the driver of the No. 23 Toyota qualified a strong seventh on the grid and raced to an impressive fourth-place finish after 400 laps at Charlotte. That's a great last look at the track in North Carolina heading into Sunday's Coca-Cola 600. Wallace was Top 10 a couple weeks ago at Darlington and was sixth-place in last weekend's All-Star Race, so he's performing well right now.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Ross Chastain – After some early season success on the cookie cutter tracks, Chastain has struggled the last two times out. He led laps at both Fort Worth and Kansas, but crashed at Fort Worth and faded at Kansas, so the results have been unreliable, despite fast cars. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has never broken the code for success at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Chastain's six-career starts at the oval have netted just one Top-15 finish and an average finish of 25.8. He led a ton of laps at this facility two seasons ago, but would somehow fade to a 15th-place finish. The length of his 600-mile race is not to be underestimated, and that's been a problem for this driver and team.  

Jimmie Johnson – You couldn't find a more decorated or successful driver at Charlotte Motor Speedway than Johnson. His eight-career victories at this oval and close to 2,000 laps led tell a story of dominance during the early 2000's at this facility. However, since his two-season break from NASCAR racing, the iconic driver has really struggled to succeed in this new generation stock car. None of his seven starts over the past two seasons have netted Top-10 finishes and his average finish across those starts is well north of 30.0. Johnson also hasn't cracked the Top 10 in his last three starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway, and he's crashed out of two of those three attempts. His start at the similar-sized Kansas Speedway a few weeks ago resulted in a mid-race crash and DNF. Johnson simply hasn't performed well enough to justify fantasy racing consideration.

Austin Cindric – If you're looking for slumping drivers, look no further than Cindric and the No. 2 Ford team right now. The young driver is mired in an 11-race Top-10 drought and has tumbled from second-place to 20th-place in the driver points during the slump. Cindric enters Memorial Day weekend struggling to find answers. Not much has gone right since his last Top 10 at Atlanta and tracks of all kinds have been giving this driver and team troubles. Cindric has just two-career starts in the 600-mile battle at Charlotte, and they were both crashes and DNF's leading to finishes outside the Top 30. We recommend passing on Cindric for this long race.     

Alex Bowman – While Bowman has been reasonably good this season, he has had his struggles on certain style tracks. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has just one Top 10 in four starts on 1.5-mile tracks and he's led very few laps. Bowman is checking in at a subpar 22.3 average finish on these ovals and he's not been qualifying well at all. Despite some recent success at Charlotte Motor Speedway with two Top 10's in his last three starts and an average finish of 9.0 across that span, we have to recommend benching Bowman and the No. 48 Chevrolet team this week. He simply hasn't shown us very much on the intermediate ovals and his 33-percent career Top-10 rate at Charlotte Motor Speedway just isn't the best.