Bank of America Roval 400 Preview: Playoff Road Race

We've reached the cut for the second round in the Chase for the Cup.  This weekend's event at Charlotte Motor Speedway is race six of 10 in the playoff format that crowns the NASCAR Cup Series champion.  

This event signals the end of the Round of 12 as four drivers will be eliminated from the field of playoff drivers after this race.  For this very crucial race NASCAR and Charlotte Motor Speedway offer the third annual road course race at the North Carolina oval.  Two seasons ago the folks at CMS constructed a 2.28-mile, 17-turn road course that incorporates most of the 1.5-mile oval and additional twists and turns on the infield for what the track calls a "roval" course.  The configuration and type is very similar to the road course that Daytona International Speedway uses for some of its racing series such as IMSA.  This new wrinkle in the Chase lineup of tracks will be a real curveball for the drivers this weekend, as most are out of their comfort zone on a road course as opposed to a true oval.  The fact that most of the field raced on the Roval the last two seasons will help with some familiarity, but it's still a major departure from the weekly NASCAR oval.  When we add the newness of this event and course with the fact that it's a "cut race" in the Chase, the pressure to finish well will be enormous.  Those drivers that don't find bad luck, or don't crack under the pressure will move on in the playoffs.

Since this is just the third race at a new NASCAR course, we have very little in the way of historical data to examine.  That does put us at a bit of a disadvantage.  However, we're not completely unarmed with numbers.  We do have the loop data from the last two seasons at the Charlotte Roval.  Those numbers along with the historically strong road course drivers will form the backbone of our fantasy racing picks this weekend.  In the table below are the driver's loop stats from last two Bank of America Roval 400's, sorted by driver rating.

Since we're running just our third race on the Roval, we're going to be very light on historical records this weekend.  We have two races to examine, and that data while helpful can't be the entirety of our analysis.  The road course at Charlotte will continue carving out its reputation and history this weekend.  If we look back on last season's Bank of America Roval 400, we saw an epic comeback by Chase Elliott after running into the turn 1 tire barrier on lap 66.  What looked like a sure Kevin Harvick victory was robbed by Elliott in the closing laps.  He would rally from the late-race crash and run down the No. 4 Ford with just 6 laps remaining.  It was a huge, emotional playoff win for the Hendrick Motorsports star.  We could be in for another unpredictable wild finish again on this tricky course this weekend.

In addition to the last two races on the Roval, we're going to rely a good bit on the road course ringers.  Those drivers who specialize at tracks like Sonoma and Watkins Glen are going to have the skills and talents to succeed on the Charlotte Roval.  For our fantasy picks this week, we're going to rely heavily on recent history among the NASCAR ranks on road courses.  This is really the most important data we can examine for this race.  With so many unknowns, there are sure to be some surprises and even some bad days for some of the NASCAR stars.  We won't be surprised by anything we see this Sunday in the Bank of America Roval 400.  So fasten your seat belts and get ready for some excitement, as NASCAR throws a major curveball at the competitors for this sixth race of the Chase.  The following are our picks for fantasy racing success at the Charlotte Roval.  

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Chase Elliott – He's been the most dominant road course driver of the last two seasons.  Elliott has grabbed four of the last five wins on these technical courses, including the last three straight.  Due to the Covid-interrupted schedule of 2020, we haven't raced at Watkins Glen or Sonoma this season, so the only road course to-date is the special event on the Daytona road course this summer.  It's a similar configuration to the Charlotte Roval.  Elliott dominated that event leading 34 of the 65 laps and taking the win in NASCAR's first event on the Daytona road course.  His win in this event one year ago makes Elliott the defending track champion.  He'll have plenty of motivation to defend that title as a playoff spot in the Round of 8 is in the balance.      

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex has nearly been Elliott's equal on these road courses the last three seasons.  He has three wins and six Top-5 finishes on the twisting circuits since 2017.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star rides a four-race road course Top-10 streak into this weekend that includes his brilliant third-place finish at the similar course in Daytona in August.  Truex nearly won the inaugural Bank of America Roval 400 in 2018, but was taken out by Jimmie Johnson within eyesight of the finish line.  He returned to the Charlotte Roval last season and peddled to a respectable seventh-place finish.  If there is any driver in the field that can give Elliott a run for his money this Sunday afternoon it's Truex and the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota team.

Kevin Harvick – Harvick is not typically a big threat to win on road circuits.  It's been since Sonoma in 2017 since he last won a road course.  However, he shook that reputation with his outing at the Charlotte Roval last season.  The driver of the No. 4 Ford led 34 laps and seemingly had victory with his grasp until the No. 9 Chevrolet of Chase Elliott ran him down in the closing laps.  In a lot of ways Harvick was the most dominant driver of that Bank of America Roval 400 last season.  With finishes of ninth- and third-place in his first two attempts at the Roval, we have to respect Harvick's homerun potential.  The data from that good performance last season will be leaned upon heavily this Sunday afternoon.  He's a driver with two-career road course wins and a Top-10 rate north of 50-percent historically on these tracks.

Denny Hamlin – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is coming off an impressive victory at Talladega.  That momentum is great, and in addition his road course upside makes for an intriguing fantasy racing selection this weekend.  Hamlin is a one-time road course winner (Watkins Glen) and he has 14 Top-10 finishes combined on all Cup Series road circuits.  While the Roval form of racing hasn't agreed with him entirely to this point, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota has been warming up to the idea.  He started on the outside pole at the Daytona road circuit in August and led 16 laps before finishing runner-up to Chase Elliott.  That was Hamlin's third Top-5 in the last four road course events.  He's guaranteed to have great starting track position for this event based on his win at Talladega this past week, so he won't waste the opportunity to lead laps and challenge for the win.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star has slumped a bit since his big Richmond win four weeks ago.  Keselowski looks safe on points to advance into the Round of 8, but he'd still like to grab a win Sunday and lock up that playoff spot.  He's been modestly good on the road courses in recent outings with two Top 10's in the last three events.  One of those was Keselowski's strong fifth-place finish at the Charlotte Roval last fall.  He learned a lot from his first start on the Charlotte Roval and employed it in last season's Bank of America Roval 400.  The veteran driver is about a 40-percent career Top-10 finisher on the road courses, but we expect the playoff implications of this race will help to elevate Keselowski's game this Sunday afternoon.   

Clint Bowyer – The skill and excellence of this veteran driver is well documented on the road circuits.  Bowyer is a one-time winner (Sonoma) and sports 12 Top-5 (39-percent) and 18 Top-10 (58-percent) finishes in his combined starts on the road circuits.  The driver of the No. 14 Stewart Haas Racing Ford raced to a brilliant fourth-place finish in last season's Bank of America Roval 400 and an equally brilliant third-place finish in the inaugural Roval event.  That experience will not likely be lost on this driver and team.  To underscore Bowyer's road course skill, he peddled to a strong sixth-place finish at the Daytona road course back in August.  He's been clicking Top 10's at a 60-percent clip on these style tracks the last three years, so Bowyer has been a bit better than his career average of late.

Ryan Blaney – Despite his relative youth, Blaney has raced beyond his years on the road circuits the last couple seasons.  The driver of the No. 12 Ford picked up his first-career road course win in the inaugural Bank of America Roval 400 and followed that with a strong eighth-place finish in the same event last year.  Blaney has piled up four Top 10's in the last five road course events.  It's a pretty dramatic improvement on his efforts at these style tracks from earlier in his career.  While the Penske Racing driver is not a major threat to win this weekend, he should easily be a face among the Top 10 when the checkered flag waves over this sixth race of the playoffs.        

Jimmie Johnson – The seven-time champion hasn't been a top performer on the regular road courses of Sonoma and Watkins Glen the last few seasons.  However, Johnson has really taken well to the Roval style courses that incorporate the oval into the course.  The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet was in the mix to challenge for the win in this event two seasons ago, but wound up a respectable eighth-place at the finish.  Johnson returned to Charlotte last September and proved that performance was no fluke with a ninth-place finish in the 2019 Bank of America Roval 400. When NASCAR added the Daytona road course to the schedule as a part of the makeup races, Johnson was ready to go.  He raced that similar styled circuit to a brilliant fourth-place finish in August.  It's been a tough final season of NASCAR racing for this iconic star, but this is definitely a weekend to tab Johnson for fantasy racing duty. 

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Charlotte & solid upside

Alex Bowman – Bowman is still alive in the playoff picture and he's racing well coming into Charlotte this week.  The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has five Top 10's in the last six races leading up to the Bank of America Roval 400.  This style of racing has been good for the driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet the last couple seasons.  Bowman raced to a fourth-place finish in the inaugural Charlotte Roval event and he followed that up with an even more impressive runner-up finish at Charlotte last season.  The recent road course race at Daytona saw Bowman peddle the team's Chevy Camaro to a respectable 12th-place finish in the Go Bowling 235.  The veteran driver really likes this style of racing and it shows in the results.    

Kurt Busch – The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran has been one of the top road course performers for years in NASCAR's top division.  Busch is a one-time Sonoma winner (2011), and he cracks the Top 10 at better than a 50-percent rate at the Cup Series road circuits.  That level puts the driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet at an elite level for road course performance.  With an average finish of 10.1 over his last 10 road course events, these tracks are easily his best in the schedule.  Busch won the pole for the inaugural Bank of America Roval 400, and led 7 total laps before finishing a very impressive fifth-place at the Charlotte Roval.  He brings that upside to the table in this event.  The veteran driver knows how to execute on technical circuits and it shows in his strong 60-percent Top-10 rate in road course racing over the last four seasons.   

Erik Jones – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster is probably a bit of a gamble this week, but we're going to go with our gut on this one.  Jones rides a three-race Top-10 streak into the Charlotte Roval and he's racing with his hair on fire flirting with potential teams for next season.  He's had some tough luck to this point in his two prior Roval starts, but his stats on the other NASCAR road courses has been pretty impressive the last few seasons.  Jones has a five-race Top-10 streak between the facilities of Sonoma and Watkins Glen.  The recent road race at Daytona in August is the primary reason for our optimism this Sunday.  Jones peddled the No. 20 Toyota to a respectable 11th-place finish in that event and showed dramatic improvement on the oval style road course.  He should be a solid performer in the Bank of America Roval 400.   

Joey Logano – Logano is not typically a great performer on the series' road courses.  Sonoma and Watkins Glen have held their struggles for the Penske Racing star.  However, the last two seasons of racing on these oval style circuits has shown good results for the No. 22 Ford team.  Logano's two Charlotte Roval outings have netted a pair of steady 10th-place finishes.  In addition, his most recent performance on the Daytona road course was an equally solid ninth-place finish in the Go Bowling 235 in August.  Logano is not a major threat to lead laps and win these events, but he's a consistent performer and can work hard to earn a steady Top-10 finish in Sunday's Bank of America Roval 400.  

William Byron – The young driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet is coming off a strong fourth-place finish at Talladega this past weekend and will look to build some momentum as we wrap up the 2020 season.  Byron was very impressive in his Charlotte Roval outing last season.  He won the pole and led 23 laps in a brilliant performance before earning a strong sixth-place finish.  It was a quantum leap from his first outing at the Charlotte road course.  To prove that effort was no fluke the Hendrick Motorsports driver recently peddled his team's Chevrolet to a steady eighth-place finish at the Daytona road course in August.  With two performances like those in the last two oval style road course events, it's difficult to overlook Byron and his potentially high ceiling for this race. 

Michael McDowell – The deep off the bench help in weekly lineup leagues comes in the form of McDowell this week.  The veteran driver has always been a steady hand on the twisting circuits, and he's continued to earn that reputation of late.  The Front Row Motorsports veteran earned an 18th-place finish in his first Charlotte Roval event.  McDowell returned this past season and grabbed a more impressive 12th-place finish in the 2019 Bank of America Roval 400.  The driver of the No. 34 Ford showed what he's learned in the recent Daytona road course event.  McDowell started a distant 30th on the grid that day in August and hustled hard to earn a shocking 10th-place finish in the Go Bowling 235. The potential to disappoint for this driver and team is miniscule, and the opportunity to outperform is likely very high. 

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – After last week's disappointment at Talladega we have to be very reserved about Busch this week.  For a second straight week he visits one of his tougher tracks to fetch results.  Historically, the Joe Gibbs Racing star has been a great performer on the conventional road courses, but these oval style circuits have not been kind to the No. 18 team.  Busch has crashed and DNF'd in both his prior starts at the Charlotte Roval.  In addition to those disappointments, he recently crashed and failed to finish on the similar circuit in Daytona.  Now with three finishes outside the Top 30 in his last five road course starts (all on oval style circuits) Busch is really struggling with this style of racing.  It's best to leave him on the bench until we return to a regular oval.

Austin Dillon – While Dillon has been a steady performer this season on the intermediate ovals and larger speedways, this is a week to take a pass on the No. 3 Chevrolet team.  Dillon's last 10 starts on the road course schedule have only yielded two Top-20 finishes and an inflated average finish of 26.1.  With 39th- and 23rd-place finishes in his two prior Charlotte Roval starts, the caution flags are plenty with this driver and team.  Dillon failed to start at the recent Daytona race due to a positive Covid test, so he missed out on the valuable recent track time in this style of racing.  It's a shaky proposition to have any fantasy racing expectations for Dillon this Sunday afternoon. 

John Hunter Nemechek – Of the different rookies in the field this week, the one to be most cautious of is likely Nemechek and his No. 38 team.  This will be his first-career start at the Charlotte Roval, so the learning curve will be steep.  The Daytona race in August is really our most recent and relevant measuring stick for this driver this weekend.  Nemechek started deep in the field and would race back there most of the day.  The rookie would eventually crash big in turn 8 and end his afternoon just 3 laps short of the full distance.  If you're considering rookies this weekend, Tyler Reddick or Cole Custer are better options than Nemechek.       

Bubba Wallace – The late crash and DNF at Talladega were likely a bit of foreshadowing for this week at the Charlotte Roval.  The very technical course has been a real puzzle for the Richard Petty Motorsports driver.  His two prior starts have netted 36th- and 24th-place finishes for an inflated average of 30.0.  That's actually a bit worse than Wallace's recent history on road courses in general.  The driver of the No. 43 Chevrolet has no Top-10 finishes in his last 10 road course starts and an average finish of 27.6.  Wallace has reaped big rewards on the short tracks this season, but it's quite clear we need to remain pessimistic about his chances on the winding road courses.