This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Vegas 103 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 103 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 53-20-1 ~ Dog Picks 11-3-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Nasrat Haqparast +235 ~ 4-1-1 +350
DFS Lock of the Week: Chepe Mariscal - 5-0
Fanduel Captain: Mariscal/Amil
Charles Johnson (17-6-0) v. Ramazan Temirov (18-3-0)
Charles Johnson - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 17 wins
Ramazan Temirov - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Johnson is climbing his way up the rankings after rattling off four straight wins. He is also making a habit of stopping young up-and-comers, and he has the chance to do it again. Temirov has lightning in his hands and showed every bit of it with a knockout win in his debut. He will be at another reach disadvantage in this fight, and he's fighting a much more defensively responsible fighter. However, it is hard to go against this guy, given how good he looked in his debut. He could be looking at another knockout if he can keep Johnson off balance and fight inside the pocket. On the other hand, if Johnson can bounce around and avoid getting hit, he will take a boring decision. As far as DFS goes, this is dog-or-pass for me.
UFC Vegas 103 Pick: Temirov
Montana De La Rosa (13-9-1) v. Luana Carolina (11-4-0)
Montana De La Rosa - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
Luana Carolina - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight comes down to whether or not De La Rosa can take Carolina down and keep her there. She would need to succeed where many others have not, and I don't think she is any better than anyone else Carolina has faced recently. Carolina has decent takedown defense but has shown great ability to get back up when taken down. I expect this fight to be no different and for Carolina to dominate on the feet. I would not expect a high score for DFS.
UFC Vegas 103 Pick: Carolina
Andrea Lee (13-10-0) v. JJ Aldrich (13-7-0)
Andrea Lee - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
JJ Aldrich - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: If I could skip this fight, I probably would. Lee has lost five straight and somehow still has a job. Aldrich has been better record-wise, but her wins aren't dominant by any means. If Lee can get something on the mat going, I could see her potentially pulling this out. However, with all the unknowns, it's safest to go with the better striker in Aldrich.
UFC Vegas 103 Pick: Aldrich
Danny Silva (9-1-0) v. Lucas Almeida (15-3-0)
Danny Silva - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
Lucas Almeida - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Almeida will need a knockout or an improved wrestling game to win this fight. He will have the edge on the feet, but his below-average takedown defense will likely cost him another fight. Silva can stand and strike but would be wise to shoot early and often where he should dominate the fight. Fighters do not always fight to their strengths, but I expect Silva to do exactly that and to score well in DFS.
UFC Vegas 103 Pick: Silva
Douglas Silva de Andrade (29-6-0) v. John Castaneda (21-7-0)
Douglas Silva de Andrade - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 22 finishes in 29 wins
John Castaneda - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: Silva de Andrade appears to be losing a step as he enters his 40s. His power is still there, but his speed has started to fade. He will likely need a knockout to win this fight. Castaneda does not feature a ton of power, but he has a little and is quick. He should have the edge in volume and would likely be the fighter initiating takedowns. I expect this fight to be close, but for Castaneda to pull away as the fight goes on. This fight will not score well in DFS without a finish.
UFC Vegas 103 Pick: Castaneda
Ricardo Ramos (17-6-0) v. Jose Mariscal (17-6-0)
Ricardo Ramos - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 17 wins
Jose Mariscal - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Ramos should be on a three-fight skid but was gifted a split-decision victory last time out. His grappling and spinning back fists are his best weapons, and both are likely to be negated by Mariscal's fighting style. Mariscal loves to apply pressure and keep things in your face. He has an excellent ground game and the striking to complement it. I expect him to impress with a fifth UFC win in a row and score well for DFS.
UFC Vegas 103 Pick: Mariscal
Austen Lane (13-5-0) v. Mario Pinto (9-0-0)
Austen Lane - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 13 wins
Mario Pinto - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: A matchup between brawling heavyweights is usually a must-pick for DFS. Both of these guys are heavy hitters, and this likely ends within the first two rounds. Lane relied on his wrestling to win in his last fight but is unlikely to find success with it again here. Pinto is undefeated for a reason, and I expect him to keep that at zero. The winner of this matchup should score well for DFS.
UFC Vegas 103 Pick: Pinto
Danny Barlow (9-0-0) v. Sam Patterson (12-2-1)
Danny Barlow - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 79" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
Sam Patterson - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Barlow will need to get back to being active if he is going to win this fight. His near loss last time out was from being overly cautious and unwilling to bang. Patterson will force that, as all of his UFC fights have ended in the first round. I'd give him a huge advantage in this fight if he can get Barlow down to the mat. I'd like to think Barlow will get back to business. I expect him to come out sharp and end this early. However, having shares of Patterson in GPP contests would be wise.
UFC Vegas 103 Pick: Barlow
Hyder Amil (10-0-0) v. William Gomis (14-2-0)
Hyder Amil - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
William Gomis - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Gomis is 4-0 in the UFC, and three of those four have gone to decision. The other was a mid-round three knockout. He is patient and defensive, forcing guys to fight at his pace. Amil has been the opposite, with both of UFC wins ending by knockout. He is as active as a fighter gets and has no problem pressuring forward. Gomis can cause his opponents to stagnate, but I expect Amil to break that script. Amil is dangerous and a third knockout in a row is on tap.
UFC Vegas 103 Pick: Amil
Nasrat Haqparast (17-5-0) v. Esteban Ribovics (14-1-0)
Nasrat Haqparast - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 17 wins
Esteban Ribovics - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Ribovics has won three straight, with two high-volume decisions and a knockout after his debut loss. Haqparast, who is only two years older, is on a four-fight winning streak and is now 9-4 in the UFC. He has fought better competition and has obviously been around the UFC longer. It blows my mind that Ribovics is almost a 3-1 favorite. I am not sure I would even have him as a favorite. Haqparast is a dog, and his striking is as clean as it gets. Neither guy gets knocked out a bunch, and we could see both fighters eclipse 100 significant strikes. Haqparast should be the favorite and is easily my pick to win.
UFC Vegas 103 Pick: Haqparast
Like this underdog suggestion? Try it out with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Cody Brundage (10-6-0) v. Julian Marquez (9-5-0)
Cody Brundage - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Julian Marquez - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: How did Marquez and Brundage get the co-main? Brundage has been a joke in the UFC, and Marquez has been knocked out three consecutive times. It is tough even to predict what we could get from these two. Brundage is known for quitting, but a stiff breeze could knock Marquez out. Pick at your own risk. I'll side with Brundage due to Marquez's chin, but I'm not thrilled about it.
UFC Vegas 103 Pick: Brundage
Manel Kape (20-7-0) v. Asu Almabayev (21-2-0)
Manel Kape - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 20 wins
Asu Almabayev - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: Kape has been a staple at the top of this division for a while now. Almabaev has climbed his way there, winning his first four UFC fights, and now draws his toughest task to date. Kape is deservedly the favorite; he is solid everywhere and has no glaring weaknesses. However, the same could be said for Almabaev. His biggest knock currently is UFC experience and the level of competition he has faced. I expect this to be a close back-and-forth affair, but I think Almabaev has the better all-around game.
UFC Vegas 103 Pick: Almabayev
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
