Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC 318
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 318 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 195-75-1 ~ Dog Picks 31-22-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Ryan Spann 2U -200
Bet of the Week Record: 14-8-1 +1273
DFS Lock of the Week: Jimmy Crute - 18-3
Fanduel Captain: Crute/Holloway
Max Holloway (26-8-0) v. Dustin Poirier (30-9-0)
- Height: 5′11″ – Reach: 69″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 26 wins (12 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 12 decisions)
- Relentless volume striker with elite durability and cardio
- One of the UFC's best pressure fighters—throws in bunches and breaks opponents down over time
- Height: 5′9″ – Reach: 72″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 30 wins (16 KO/TKO, 7 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Well-rounded vet with power in both hands and a strong grappling base
- Fighting in his home state and likely his final UFC appearance
DFS Perspective: Poirier's experience and well-rounded game make him dangerous, but I'm siding with Holloway this time. He's been ramping up the aggression again and still has some of the best volume striking in the game. If he can keep Poirier backing up, the output might simply be too much over five rounds. I expect a high-paced fight, with Holloway pulling away late and racking up significant DFS value.
UFC 318 Pick: Holloway
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Paulo Costa (14-4-0) v. Roman Kopylov (14-3-0)
- Height: 6′1″ – Reach: 72″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14 wins (11 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 2 decisions)
- Fan-favorite brawler with one of the fastest significant-strike outputs in UFC middleweight history
- Coming off a 4-of-5 fight skid, but has apparently been back to basics in camp
- Height: 6′0″ – Reach: 75″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 14 wins (12 KO/TKO, 2 decisions)
- Combat sambo pedigree with legit power (86% KO rate) and well-rounded striking defense
- Riding a 2-fight UFC win streak
DFS Perspective: Costa's always a highlight threat when he's aggressive, but he's looked slower and less disciplined over the past year. Kopylov counters that with crisp sambo chops, steady output and defensive awareness. He'll control range, punish Costa's wild shots and can flatten him with counters. Still, this one's live -- if Costa lands early, it's over fast. Lean Kopylov for consistency, control and a clean path to victory, but always respect the chaos Costa brings.
UFC 318 Pick: Kopylov
Kevin Holland (28-13-0) v. Daniel Rodriguez (19-5-0)
- Height: 6′3″ – Reach: 81″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 24 wins (13 KO/TKO, 10 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Tall, rangy fighter with slick striking and sneaky wrestling
- Always active, adaptable, with constant adjustments and pace
- Height: 6′1″ – Reach: 74″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 22 wins (9 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 6 decisions)
- Technical boxer with durability and wrestling fallback
- Steady, high-volume fighter, can grind for three rounds
DFS Perspective: Holland has the tools, range, adaptability and athleticism to make this his fight to lose. Rodriguez can make it competitive if he pushes the pace and lands often, but Holland's versatility should allow him to dictate where this goes. I don't expect a high DFS score -- this one's likely a controlled, mid-volume affair.
UFC 318 Pick: Holland
Dan Ige (19-9-0) v. Patricio Pitbull (36-8-0)
- Height: 5′7″ – Reach: 71″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18 wins (7 KO/TKO, 5 submissions, 7 decisions)
- Durable pressure fighter with strong boxing and underrated grappling
- Continues to hold his own against top-tier featherweights
- Height: 5′6″ – Reach: 67″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 35 wins (12 KO/TKO, 12 submissions, 12 decisions)
- Dominated in UFC debut
- Skilled everywhere, but coming off a tough recent stretch
DFS Perspective: Pitbull's résumé is undeniable, but he's arriving in the UFC too late. The speed, volume and intensity at this level, especially against a fighter like Ige, will be a problem. Ige's pressure and combinations should overwhelm the aging vet, and unless Pitbull catches lightning early, he'll likely fall behind quickly. Ige is a sneaky pick on the card and could put up a sneaky-good DFS score with sustained output.
UFC 318 Pick: Ige
Michael Johnson (23-19-0) v. Daniel Zellhuber (15-2-0)
- Height: 5′10″ – Reach: 73″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 24 wins (10 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 11 decisions)
- UFC veteran with fast hands and solid boxing fundamentals
- Has faced elite competition, but clearly on the back end of his career
- Height: 6′1″ – Reach: 77″ – Stance: Switch
- Record: 15 wins (7 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Long, technical striker with improving takedown defense
- Still evolving but carries solid volume and finishing instincts
DFS Perspective: Johnson still has the hands to make things interesting, but his durability and cardio have both dipped. Zellhuber's length, youth and clean shot selection should allow him to dictate the pace and win exchanges. I expect this to be mostly on the feet, likely going the full 15 minutes
UFC 318 Pick: Zellhuber
Kyler Phillips (12-3-0) v. Vinicius Salvador (22-3-0)
- Height: 5′8″ – Reach: 72″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Slick boxer with solid BJJ pedigree—a Carlson Gracie brown belt
- Durable and high-volume, but has shown cracks under pressure at 135 lbs.
- Height: 5′9″ – Reach: 70″ – Stance: Switch
- Record: 14 wins (16 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 4 Decisions)
- One-punch power, but back-to-back decision wins show off his cardio
- Has yet to lose in the UFC
DFS Perspective: I like Salvador here; his raw power and finishing instinct give him the upside to catch Phillips cold. But Phillips isn't a pushover; he's sharp, durable and technically sound. If he can neutralize Salvador's early power and drag this into deep waters, he has a clean path to decision points.
UFC 318 Pick: Salvador
Marvin Vettori (19-7-1) v. Brendan Allen (24-7-0)
- Height: 6′0″ – Reach: 74″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 19 wins (2 KO/TKO, 9 submissions, 8 decisions)
- Durable grappler with solid pace and strong BJJ transitions
- Ate two decision losses in a row—needs to prove he can still pressure elite middleweights
- Height: 6′2″ – Reach: 75″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 24 wins (5 KO/TKO, 14 submissions, 5 decisions)
- Submission monster with 58% of wins by sub; heavy on pace and wrestling control
- High activity - on the feet and ground
DFS Perspective: Allen gets the edge for me here. He's been more active, is more effective on the mat and boasts a submission-heavy threat that Vettori has to respect. Vettori's toughness and experience in deep water matter, but Allen's game plan seems tailored: keep Vettori under pressure, hunt for the takedown and dig for a sub. If this hits the mat, I like Allen's path to victory.
UFC 318 Pick: Allen
Francisco Prado (12-3-0) v. Nikolay Veretennikov (12-6-0)
- Height: 5′10″ – Reach: 69″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (6 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Finisher in both stand-up and grappling with a perfect regional finish rate
- Still early in his UFC career—proving himself, but carries momentum
- Height: 6′1″ – Reach: 74″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (9 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 2 decisions)
- Big power, especially in stand-up—but just 0–2 inside the UFC so far
- Struggled with mental composure after his last loss—brawl behavior didn't help his case
DFS Perspective: Prado looks like the better-rounded fighter with confidence and finishing versatility. Veretennikov has power, but his UFC debut showed mental lapses, and he hasn't won on the big stage yet. Prado's youth, aggression and skill level give him a clear path to dominance. I expect him to impose his will from start to finish, likely getting a finish on the feet or in a scramble.
UFC 318 Pick: Prado
Ateba Gautier (7-1-0) v. Robert Valentin (10-5-0)
- Height: 6′4″ – Reach: 81″ – Stance: Switch
- Record: 7 wins (6 KO/TKO, 1 decision)
- Elite finisher—six straight knockouts, five in round one
- Massive physical upside for middleweight and carries serious momentum
- Height: 6′2″ – Reach: 77″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (3 KO/TKO, 6 submissions, 1 decision)
- Submission-heavy game, but has struggled so far in the UFC
- Patchy results against top-level middleweights; durability has been a question
DFS Perspective: This one's Gautier's fight to lose. He's the more polished athlete with size, power and finishing upside, all lean his way. Valentin can threaten submissions, but he was outmatched last time and has yet to deliver inside the UFC. If Gautier brings the same aggression and physicality he's shown, this should be one-sided. Valentin's got nothing to lose, but Gautier has too much momentum to overlook. Clear finish potential and a high-ceiling DFS target.
UFC 318 Pick: Gautier
Adam Fugitt (10-4-0) v. Islam Dulatov (11-1-0)
- Height: 6′1″ – Reach: 77″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10 wins (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Well-rounded welterweight with finishing upside and diverse skill set
- UFC record sits at 2–2; has power and grappling, but question marks on consistency
- Height: 6′3″ – Reach: 75″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11 wins (6 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Allergic to decision
- DWCS standout, strong regional run, and solid fundamental game
DFS Perspective: Dulatov has the ceiling with massive power, quick finishes and a fresh swagger, but Fugitt has more experience in the UFC and looks for finishes across all phases. This feels like a clash between hype and polish. If Dulatov lands early, it'll be over fast. Fugitt's path is grinding and dragging this into deeper waters where he can lean on grappling and mixing strikes.
UFC 318 Pick: Dulatov
Jimmy Crute (12-4-2) v. Marcin Prachnio (17-8-0)
- Height: 6′2″ – Reach: 74″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12 wins (5 KO/TKO, 4 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Explosive wrestler with heavy top control and underrated striking
- Looked sharp in his return from layoff—this will be his second fight back after regrouping mentally and physically
- Height: 6′3″ – Reach: 74″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17 wins (11 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 5 decisions)
- Karate-based striker with knockout power but questionable durability
- Struggles when forced to fight off the back foot or deal with relentless grappling
DFS Perspective: This is Crute's fight to win everywhere. He looked rejuvenated in his last outing and seems to have shaken off the rust from his layoff. Whether it's controlling with wrestling or trading on the feet, Crute has the edge across the board. Prachnio has power, but he's been exposed too many times when pressured or taken down. Crute should be able to impose his will and potentially finish this one early.
UFC 318 Pick: Crute
Ryan Spann (22-11-0) v. Lukasz Brzeski (9-6-1)
- Height: 6′5″ – Reach: 79″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22 wins (6 KO/TKO, 13 submissions, 3 decisions)
- Powerful wrestler with massive grappling upside and finishing range
- Fresh off his heavyweight debut, brings strength and fight IQ from years at light heavyweight
- Height: 6′4″ – Reach: 78″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9 wins (5 KO/TKO, 2 submissions, 2 decisions)
- Pure striker with solid power, but has lost five of six UFC fights and has been finished twice
- Likely on his last UFC chance—needs explosion early or he's in trouble
DFS Perspective: This is Spann's fight to lose. Brzeski's lost a ton inside the UFC and has been brutally exposed in recent knockouts. Spann's wrestling and grappling give him multiple paths. If he shoots early, he can push into dominant positions or force a tap. Even standing, Spann's fight IQ and power are a step above.
UFC 318 Pick: Spann
Brunno Ferreira (13-2-0) v. Jackson McVey (6-0-0)
- Height: 5′10″ – Reach: 72″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13 wins (9 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Explosive middleweight with knockout power and clean submissions
- Moving forward with his momentum from UFC 313, where he looked sharp and finished via armbar
- Height: 6′4″ – Reach: 77″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 6 Wins (3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Strong, fast finisher—perfect 6–0 but with limited UFC-level testing
- Making UFC debut on short notice—big upside but cast deep into the fire
DFS Perspective: Ferreira's the real deal. He is a polished finisher in both striking and grappling who's carried his DWCS momentum into the Octagon. McVey is a dangerous debut prospect, but he's the one without pressure and speed on MMA's biggest stage. I expect Ferreira to chop McVey down, stay safe on his feet and finish this one -- striker's pace or submission if he closes the distance. High floor and ceiling for DFS.
UFC 318 Pick: Ferreira
Carli Judice (4-2-0) v. Nicolle Caliari (8-3-0)
- Height: 5′7″ – Reach: 68″ – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 4 wins (4 KO/TKO)
- Explosive striker: 100% of wins by finish, including a highlight-reel head‑kick KO in her first UFC win
- Active volume fighter who comes out aggressive and stays busy
- Height: 5′3″ – Reach: 62″ – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8 wins (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Well-rounded finisher with both power and submission tools
- Durable, calm grappler who goes decision-heavy and isn't afraid of deep waters
DFS Perspective: I expect Judice to come out and pour on the volume. She's the more explosive striker and has shown she can finish quickly. She'll look to get this moving fast with strikes and keep Caliari on her back foot. But Caliari's toughness and grappling mean her path is clear: absorb the early storm, scramble and look for late finishes or ground control. Expect a high-output affair, but I'm leaning Judice to keep the pace and find a finish before Caliari gets comfortable.
UFC 318 Pick: Judice
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
