This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 69 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Juancamilo Ronderos (4-1-0) v. Clayton Carpenter (6-0-0)
Clayton Carpenter - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins
Juancamilo Ronderos - Height: 5'4" - Reach: N/A – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 2 finishes in 4 wins
DFS Perspective: Carpenter is an impressive rising prospect with an excellent chance to record a statement win in his UFC debut. I expect him to be better everywhere this fight goes and should find an early finish. Ronderos has a chance if he can snatch the neck early and find a submission, but it is unlikely. Carpenter will need an early finish, or much work, to hit value, but he should get there.
UFC Vegas 69 Pick: Carpenter
AJ Fletcher (9-2-0) v. Themba Gorimbo (10-3-0)
AJ Fletcher - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 67" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
Themba Gorimbo - Height: 6'0" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Fletcher is running out of chances to show he belongs in the UFC. However, he gets a winnable matchup against a debuting fighter. He should be the one controlling where the fight goes, but his cardio will be a concern as the fight progresses. Gorimo is savvy on the mat, and should he choose to grind Fletcher out, he could find himself with an early submission. I do not trust either fight for cash, but a case could be made for both in GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 69 Pick: Fletcher
Ovince Saint Preux (26-16-0) v. Philipe Lins (15-5-0)
Ovince Saint Preux - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 20 wins
Philipe Lins - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: So long as Lins avoids making a mistake, he should win this fight. He will be the faster of the two while applying constant forward pressure and throwing more volume. OSP still has power and will be the better grappler; If Lins puts himself in a precarious position, OSP should take advantage. I trust both fighters very little, but if Lins comes in with and executes the right game plan, he could smash value.
UFC Vegas 69 Pick: Lins
Jamall Emmers (18-6-0) v. Khusein Askhabov (23-0-0)
Jamall Emmers - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 18 wins
Khusein Askhabov - Height: 5'8" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: Emmers is another fighter who has yet to perform to expectations in the UFC and draws a daunting task in the undefeated Askhabov. The only advantage I would give Emmers would be power, and he will have difficulty landing anything flush in this one. I expect Askhabov to push relentlessly, suffocating Emmers until he finishes him early. He should pay off nicely at his price and crush value.
UFC Vegas 69 Pick: Askhabov
Lina Lansberg (10-7-0) v. Mayra Bueno Silva (9-2-1)
Lina Lansberg - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 20 wins
Mayra Bueno Silva - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: I will continue to say Lansberg does not belong in the UFC until she is no longer in it. I see no way in which she could win this fight. Bueno Silva should have her way for 15 minutes if she does not finish her. However, I do not see her hitting enough value as the highest-priced fighter.
UFC Vegas 69 Pick: Bueno Silva
Nazim Sadykhov (7-1-0) v. Evan Elder (7-1-0)
Nazim Sadykhov - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 69" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
Evan Elder - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Elder could have been more impressive in his UFC debut and now takes on a fighter making his debut with an already fantastic resume. I have a difficult time envisioning a way in which he can win this fight. Sadykhov will be better everywhere and pushing the pace with intense pressure. Sadykhov has an excellent chance to smash value in multiple ways at his price and is one of my favorite plays on the card.
UFC Vegas 69 Pick: Sadykhov
Jim Miller (35-16-0) v. Alexander Hernandez (13-6-0)
Jim Miller - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 25 finishes in 35 wins
Alexander Hernandez - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a traditional striker vs. grappler match. I see it going one of two ways. Hernandez comes out hot with a flurry of power punches putting Miller out early, or Miller grinds Hernandez out and submits him late. Hernandez looked phenomenal in the first round of his last fight, and if he does that here against Miller, he should put him out early.
UFC Vegas 69 Pick: Hernandez
William Knight (11-4-0) v. Marcin Prachnio (15-6-0)
William Knight - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins
Marcin Prachnio - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: *Keep an eye on weigh-ins for Knight* Knight will have a massive power and wrestling advantage. However, He tends to have cardio issues due to his muscle mass. Prachnio will have a speed and volume advantage and should look to avoid getting put on his back at all costs. This is a close fight. I lean towards Knight landing something flush and knocking Prachnio out, but I would not be surprised if Prachnio got something late or won on the cards.
UFC Vegas 69 Pick: Knight
Josh Parisian (15-5-0) v. Jamal Pogues (9-3-0)
Josh Parisian - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
Jamal Pogues - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Pogues is another fighter making his debut after a successful stint on the Contender Series. I expect this fight to stay on the feet for as long as it lasts. Someone should get knocked out so long as neither is gun-shy. I would give the power advantage to Pogues, while the speed and volume edge lies with Parisian. At times, Parisian tends to leave his hands down, which could lead to him being put out early and Pogues smashing value.
UFC Vegas 69 Pick: Pogues
Zac Pauga (5-1-0) v. Jordan Wright (12-4-0)
Jordan Wright - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins
Zac Pauga - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 1 finishes in 5 wins
DFS Perspective: *Keep an eye on weigh-ins for Wright – He is moving up to LHW for this fight* Wright has a terrible fight IQ inside the Octagon, but he will have more ways to win in this fight and should be better everywhere. I find little to nothing impressive about Pauga's game and do not see why he is so heavily favored. If Wright can, for once, avoid making a mistake and putting himself in a compromised position, I think he smashes this fight and absolutely crushes value.
UFC Vegas 69 Pick: Wright
Jessica Andrade (24-9-0) v. Erin Blanchfield (10-1-0)
Jessica Andrade - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 62" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 24 wins
Erin Blanchfield - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: I love and hate this fight, as I am a huge fan of both fighters. This is where we will find out if Blanchfield is up for the test of the top five. Andrade should have a significant edge in power, while Blanchfield will have a considerable edge on the mat. Blanchfield has not faced a striker of Andrade's caliber and could find herself overwhelmed quickly if she is not careful. I said when Blanchfield got into the UFC that she is a future champion, and I stand by that. I think she avoids the power and gets this to the mat, where she can smother Andrade for a controlling decision.
UFC Vegas 69 Pick: Blanchfield
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Vegas 69 DraftKings preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
