This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 284 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Zubaira Tukhugov (20-5-1) v. Elves Brenner (13-3-0)
Zubaira Tukhugov - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 20 wins
Elves Brenner - Height: 5'9" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: I think Brenner has the tools to be a solid fighter and could find success in the UFC. However, there are levels to the fight game, and Tukhugov should be many levels ahead. I expect Tukhugov to grind this out, suffocating Brenner with pressure and control. He is currently the highest-priced fighter on the slate and would likely need a first-round finish to hit value.
UFC 284 Pick: Tukhugov
Blake Bilder (7-0-1) v. Shane Young (13-6-0)
Blake Bilder - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
Shane Young - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13wins
DFS Perspective: Young has been less than impressive in his UFC tenure, and another loss could result in his departure. Unfortunately, he faces a guy who is excellent on the mat and will be looking to get there early. If this were a striking match, I would lean toward Young. However, Bilder is an animal, and when the fight hits the mat, I expect him to completely take over and potentially finish this early.
UFC 284 Pick: Bilder
Loma Lookboonmee (7-3-0) v. Elise Reed (6-2-0)
Loma Lookboonmee - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 61" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 1 finishes in 7 wins
Elise Reed - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 2 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be primarily a 15-minute striking match, with a couple of takedowns mixed in. Both are decent strikers, but the volume difference coming from Loma should be all the difference in this fight. I do not expect a high score to come out of this fight.
UFC 284 Pick: Lookboonme
Jack Jenkins (10-2-0) v. Don Shainis (12-4-0)
Jack Jenkins - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Don Shainis - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be an explosive striking match for as long as it lasts. Both guys have considerable power and love to knock people out. Shainis lost his UFC debut by submission, so I would not be surprised to see Jenkins take this to the mat. I expect Jenkins to overwhelm Shainis early with pressure and finish in the first couple of rounds.
UFC 284 Pick: Jenkins
Jamie Mullarkey (15-5-0) v. Francisco Prado (11-0-0)
Jamie Mullarkey - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
Francisco Prado - Height: 5'10" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: If Mullarkey comes in with a smart game plan, he will get this fight to the mat early and work on control or submission. I feel like he is not going to do that, and this ends up being a striking match where Prado has the advantage. He'll use his immense power to score a knockout.
UFC 284 Pick: Prado
Kleydson Rodrigues (7-2-0) v. Shannon Ross (13-6-0)
Kleydson Rodrigues - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
Shannon Ross - Height: 5'6" - Reach: N/A - Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Ross is making his debut after a loss on the Contender Series. He looks to have a solid overall game, but I expect Rodrigues to be better everywhere this fight goes. Look for Rodrigues to pressure early and look for a way to get this to the mat, where he should dominate.
UFC 284 Pick: Rodrigues
Joshua Culibao (10-1-1) v. Melsik Baghdasaryan (7-1-0)
Josh Culibao - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 10 wins
Melsik Baghdasaryan - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Culibao can make a statement in this fight with a big win. However, he struggles against aggressive strikers, and Melsik fits that mold to a T. I expect Melsik to continue his fast-paced approach, applying heavy pressure and throwing a multitude of strikes to finish this early.
UFC 284 Pick: Baghdasaryan
Tyson Pedro (9-3-0) v. Modestas Bukauskas (13-5-0)
Tyson Pedro - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 9 wins
Modestas Bukauskas - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: The fight odds should be much closer than the nearly 3-1 odds Pedro is favored by. Pedro has significant power and has returned to the UFC with back-to-back knockouts, but they were against an aged veteran and someone who has no right being in the UFC. Bukauskas has not fought in the UFC since getting his knee blown out but has recorded back-to-back wins with Cage Warriors. Pedro is rightfully favored, but Bukauskas should not be counted out, and I would not be surprised if he won.
UFC 284 Pick: Pedro
Jimmy Crute (12-3-0) v. Alonzo Menifield (13-3-0)
Jimmy Crute - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Alonzo Menifield - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 12 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Crute will have a significant edge on the mat, while Menifield will have an advantage on the feet. Crute does not always come in with the best fight IQ, and if this stays on the feet, he will likely get knocked out. Menifield has solid wrestling, but he will likely get submitted if he loses his back. Menifield has excellent takedown defense, and I think that ends up being the difference in this one.
UFC 284 Pick: Menifield
Justin Tafa (5-3-0) v. Parker Porter (13-7-0)
Justin Tafa - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 5 wins
Parker Porter - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This should primarily be a striking match for 15 minutes. The odds should be flipped. Parker has been the better fighter in the UFC, throws more volume and has the wrestling to keep from getting into trouble. Tafa could always land flush and record a knockout, but I do not see it happening. Porter is one of my favorite plays for DFS and betting.
UFC 284 Pick: Porter
Randy Brown (16-4-0) v. Jack Della Maddalena (13-2-0)
Jack Della Maddalena - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 13 wins
Randy Brown - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Maddalena is a massive favorite in this fight for good reason. He has been incredible in three UFC fights and has shown no signs of slowing. However, Brown is a UFC vet and could cause problems for the rising star, particularly if he gets the fight to the mat. Still, I think the pressure and volume that Maddalena puts out will cause Brown to fold early for another huge win.
UFC 284 Pick: Maddalena
Yair Rodriguez (14-3-0) v. Josh Emmett (18-2-0)
Yair Rodriguez - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
Josh Emmett - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: This is where the Emmett train comes to a stop. Yes, he has the power advantage, but Rodriguez is as tough as they come. Rodriguez, over five rounds, should nearly double the volume Emmett puts out if this goes to a decision. I do not expect much of this to hit the mat, but I would also give Rodriguez the advantage there.
UFC 284 Pick: Rodriguez
Islam Makhachev (23-1-0) v. Alexander Volkanovski (25-1-0)
Islam Makhachev - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 23 wins
Alexander Volkanovski - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 25 wins
DFS Perspective: Makhachev is the deserving favorite, as Volkanovski is moving up a weight class for this fight and has a considerable disadvantage in size. I would give him the advantage on the feet with power and volume, while Makhachev will have the edge on the mat. Volkanovski has shown excellent resiliency, avoiding being submitted, but Makhachev is in a different class altogether. This fight will come down to the takedown defense and wrestling of Volkanovski. If this stays on the feet, he should win.
UFC 284 Pick: Volkanovski
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC 284 DraftKings preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
