This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 101 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC Vegas 101 takes place Saturday, so it's time to break down the top fights, plus make DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k 2025 Opening Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Women's Strawweight
Mackenzie Dern (14-5-0) v. Amanda Ribas (12-5-0)
DK Salaries: Dern ($7,700), Ribas ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Dern (+170), Ribas (-205)
These two were originally scheduled to fight on the final 2024 card of the year back on December 14 before being pushed back a handful of weeks to a main event slot here. It's a rematch of an October 2019 fight which Ribas won via unanimous decision.
Ribas has been treading water the past four-plus years, alternating wins and losses in her past seven bouts. If that trend holds, she should be in good shape come Saturday. Amanda is game each and every time out, but she lacks high-end physical skills. I also don't love the fact she is bouncing back and forth between strawweight and flyweight at age 31. Ribas is valuable roster depth, but I don't think she's any sort of legitimate contender in either division.
Dern snapped a brief two-fight losing streak with a much-needed unanimous decision win over Lupita Godinez in August. Prior to that, she suffered setbacks to Amanda Lemos and Jessica Andrade. Set to turn 32 years of age in late March, Dern is an elite BJJ specialists who has never learned the finer points of MMA, particularly on the feet. Like Ribas, I expect plenty of inconsistency moving forward.
The first fight between the two was lopsided. Ribas swept a three-round decision on the judges scorecards, and it's easy to see why. She closed with a 74-20 edge in terms of significant strikes landed. Amanda also landed both of her takedown attempts, while Dern failed on all six of her tries.
The good news is that Dern's striking has improved considerably. It's still not a strength, but neither is Ribas'. In short, I'd be pretty surprised if Amanda is able to overwhelm Mackenzie on the feet to that degree once again.
Neither women possesses strong stand-up defense. I expect this to turn into a wild brawl at times, and I don't have a huge lean either way in terms of who would have the advantage there.
Ribas is landing north of two (2.07) takedowns per 15 minutes, while connecting on a whopping 51 percent of her tries. Dern, on the other hand, defends the takedown at a woeful 30 percent clip. I imagine Mackenzie is more than comfortable working off of her back given her submission skills, but Ribas has proven to be able to do damage from top position, and Dern can't be content with spending a good chunk of this fight on her back.
I can't help but think the result of the first fight is heavily playing into Ribas' inflated price tag. Sure, she won that evening quite easily and deserves to be favored, but I view this as fairly close to a pick 'em, and that makes Dern a value play and the pick, even if neither woman appears to be a very attractive DraftKings play.
THE PICK: Dern
Co-Main Event - Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-8-0) v. Carlston Harris (19-6-0)
DK Salaries: Ponzinibbio ($8,000), Harris ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Ponzinibbio (-125), Harris (+105)
This could very well be last call for Ponzinibbio, who turned 38 years of age in September and is just 1-4 in his past five fights. To be fair, three of those four defeats were via split decision, and he most definitely didn't get a fair shake on the scorecards in his most recent loss to Muslim Salikhov last July. Harris is a reasonable opponent, but he's not on the same level as some of the other names Santiago has seen recently, such as Kevin Holland, Michel Pereira and Geoff Neal.
Harris has fought six times since his May 2021 UFC debut, going 4-2, with two submission wins and a knockout of Impa Kasanganay on his ledger. His losses were knockouts at the hands of Shavkat Rakhmonov (totally understandable) and Khaos Williams his last time out in May. Harris will be 38 years of age July, and if he plans on making a move, the time is now. This feels like a fight he has to have given the result of the Williams fight.
Santiago has missed a ton of time due to injury over the years, and he simply doesn't look like the same guy. His fluidity and movements seem compromised, and while he's still capable of landing big shots, they don't seem to be finding the mark as frequently as they did back during his seven-fight win streak from December 2015 to November 2018. It could simply be a result of getting older, or the injuries could have taken their toll.
Harris brings a solid all-around game to the table. His chin is questionable and durabiltiy is a concern, but he's strong on the mat and can wrestle a bit. My main concern is his typical low output on the feet. He averages just 3.18 significant strikes landed per minute. For comparison's sake, Ponzinibbio is up at 4.74 per minute.
Santiago isn't what he once was, but he still looks pretty good once he's able to get going. There's no guarantee that will happen, but if you told me one fighter here is going to eventually pull ahead on the feet, I'd wager it's Ponzinibbio.
There's a chance Santiago is totally shot, but I'm sure he knows he'll be sent packing if he comes up short here, and I think there's a pretty decent chance he is simply able to outwork Harris over the course of 15 minutes and win a decision as a result.
THE PICK: Ponzinibbio
Middleweight
Cesar Almeida (6-1-0) v. Abdul Razak Alhassan (12-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Almeida ($9,300), Alhassan ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Almeida (-270), Alhassan (+220)
Almeida will be 37 years of age in late-March and has all of seven pro MMA fights under her belt, three of which have come with the UFC. He's 2-1 in the organization, having alternated wins and losses. The victories came over Dylan Budka (TKO) and Ihor Potieria (unanimous decision), while the defeat was a split decision to Roman Kopylov, by far the best opponent he has seen to date.
Alhassan somehow still has a roster spot despite the fact he is 2-5 (1NC) in his past eight bouts. The two wins (Claudio Ribeiro, Alessio Di Chirico) did come via knockout, but Alhassan will be 40 years of age next August, and his time with the company would appear to be just about up. This seems like a terrible matchup for him from a stylistic standpoint.
Almeida is a former professional kickboxer who defeated Alex Pereira back in December 2013 via unanimous decision. Cesar has a hole in his game as wide as the Atlantic Ocean when it comes to grappling, and the UFC has been VERY careful regarding the type of opposition it has matched him up against thus far. He's a pure striker and to date, has only seen opponents with similar skill sets. Alhassan, without a submission win in his career, certainly falls into that category.
It's worth noting that Almeida has been taken down at least three times in each of his first three UFC bouts and 11 times in total. He also gave up three takedowns in his win on Dana White's Contender Series.
The game plan to attack him is no secret. Even guys like Kopylov and Potieria, who aren't known for their wrestling, have been able to get Almeida to the mat. Alhassan is averaging 0.88 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing just 38 percent of his attempts. Yet, you can toss those numbers out the window against Cesar.
The main concern from a grappling standpoint with Alhassan is that he has poor cardio, and I'm not sure he'll be able to spam attempts together. If he is content with point fighting Almeida on the feet, he's probably going to lose.
I don't like the favorite price tag, and I could see Alhassan making some headway early, but my guess is he eventually gasses out and Almeida takes over from there, earning a late stoppage.
THE PICK: Almeida
Middleweight
Chris Curtis (31-11-0, 1NC) v. Roman Kopylov (13-3-0)
DK Salaries: Curtis ($7,100), Kopylov ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Curtis (+210), Kopylov (-260)
For my money, this is the best fight on this card by a wide margin, main event included.
We have plenty of evidence that the 37-year-old Curtis isn't on the same level as the best the UFC has to offer at 185 pounds, but he's not far off. Chris is more talented than his 2-3 (1NC) mark in his last half-dozen bouts would lead you to believe. He's been fighting high-end competition for years and almost always gives a good accounting of himself. A good portion of his success is based upon durability and his willingness to stand in the pocket and exchange.
Kopylov is 5-1 in his past six fights dating back to September 2022, with the lone defeat during that stretch coming against a guy in Anthony Hernandez who is closing in on a title shot at middleweight. I touched on Roman earlier in the Almeida breakdown. He's typically a high-end, creative striker, but he showed a new wrinkle in his game in the fight against Cesar. I certainly don't expect him to be going in there and shooting attempts against Curtis, but it's nice to see his grappling has improved some.
Curtis, on the other hand, hasn't landed a single takedown in his UFC run. It's a mind-blowing stat when you take into account how frequently he has competed over the past many years, but I assure you it's true. This is going to be a kickboxing match unless Kopylov decides otherwise and tries to get it to the mat.
We should get a pretty good feel early on how this fight is going to go.
Curtis employs an in-your-face style. He lacks ideal power, but he throws a lot (5.76 significant strikes landed per minute) and gets hits a lot (6.16 significant strikes absorbed per minute). If it's ugly and the two are fighting in close quarters, he has the edge.
If there's plenty of distance between the two men and it's turns into a technical kickboxing match, Kopylov is going to have a big advantage. He has considerably more power and should have a pretty significant speed edge.
Even if you don't think Curtis is going to win, which I don't, he looks like an excellent value play. He's been in there against some of the best in the world and rarely appears overwhelmed by the moment. Kopylov will probably land the more damaging blows, especially because he doesn't have to worry about Chris shooting on him, but Curtis will be competitive and an upset most certainly cannot be ruled out.
THE PICK: Kopylov
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Christian Rodriguez (11-2-0) v. Austin Bashi (13-0-0)
DK Salaries: Rodriguez ($7,300), Bashi ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Rodriguez (+225), Bashi (-280)
THE PICK: Bashi
Welterweight
Punahele Soriano (10-4-0) v. Uros Medic (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Soriano ($7,500), Medic ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Soriano (+160), Medic (-190)
THE PICK: Soriano
Flyweight
Jose Johnson (16-9-0) v. Felipe Bunes (13-7-0)
DK Salaries: Johnson ($8,600), Bunes ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (-185), Bunes (+155)
THE PICK: Johnson
Middleweight
Marco Tulio (12-1-0) v. Ihor Potieria (20-7-0)
DK Salaries: Tulio ($9,600), Potieria ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Tulio (-500), Potieria (+380)
THE PICK: Tuilo
Lightweight
Thiago Moises (18-8-0) v. Trey Ogden (18-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Moises ($8,300), Ogden ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Moises (-200), Ogden (+165)
THE PICK: Ogden
Welterweight
Preston Parsons (11-5-0) v. Jacobe Smith (9-0-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Parsons (+275), Smith (+345)
THE PICK: Smith
Women's Flyweight
Ernesta Kareckaite (5-1-1) v. Nicolle Caliari (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Kareckaite ($9,200), Caliari ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Kareckaite (-270), Caliari (+220)
THE PICK: Caliari
Light Heavyweight
Magomed Gadzhiyasulov (9-0-0) v. Bruno Lopes (13-1-0)
DK Salaries: Gadzhiyasulov ($8,800), Lopes ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Gadzhiyasulov (-225), Lopes (+185)
THE PICK: Gadzhiyasulov
Women's Strawweight
Fatima Kline (6-1-0) v. Viktoriia Dudakova (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Kline ($9,800), Dudakova ($6,400)
Vegas Odds: Kline (-950), Dudakova (+625)
THE PICK: Kline
Lightweight
Nurullo Aliev (9-0-0) v. Joe Solecki (13-5-0)
DK Salaries: N/A
Vegas Odds: Aliev (-535), Solecki (+400)
THE PICK: Aliev
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for [EVENT NAME] with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
