This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Sao Paulo takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis (27-11-0, 1NC) v. Jailton Almeida (19-2-0)
DK Salaries: Lewis ($6,600), Almeida ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Lewis (+380), Almeida (-500)
Never one to turn down a fight, especially a main event, Lewis agreed to step in for Curtis Blaydes here on less than a month's notice. Blaydes would have represented a much stiffer test, although "The Black Beast" still represents a significant step up in competition for Almeida.
The 32-year-old Brazilian earned his UFC opportunity with a submission win on Dana White's Contender Series in September 2021. He has five official fights with the company, winning all five via stoppage (three submissions, two knockouts), including four in the first round. That said, Almeida's opponents to date -- Jair Rozenstruik, Shamil Abdurakhimov, Anton Turkalj, Parker Porter and Danilo Marques -- could charitably be termed "low-end competition." Lewis, despite his limited offensive skill set, represents a challenge for Jailton.
Set to turn 39 years of age next February, Lewis snapped a three-fight losing streak with a 33-second knockout win over Marcos Rogerio de Lima in late-July. It was his 14th knockout win with the UFC, extending his company record. Derrick can remain competitive against opposition that doesn't attempt to grapple him, and to his credit, he's gotten himself in better shape of late and showed off better secondary skills. He's still a one-dimensional knockout artist, however.
Unless I'm missing something -- which is entirely possible -- this appears to be a worse-case scenario for Lewis from a stylistic standpoint.
Almeida is up there with the likes of Jon Jones (if you want to consider him a heavyweight) and Tom Aspinall in terms of best athletes in the heavyweight division. He moves like a 185-pounder. He averages 6.40 takedowns per 15 minutes, and his explosiveness, particularly in short bursts, appears unstoppable. Lewis -- and his 52 percent takedown defense -- is at risk of being planted to the mat seconds after the opening bell rings and never getting up.
Sure, Lewis has the power edge, as he does in most every fight, and is always a live underdog simply because he can end a bout in an instant, but I would be totally flabbergasted if he finds a way to emerge victorious by any method other than knockout.
Everything from cardio, to athleticism, to youth, to all-around skill favors Jailton in a monumental way.
My guess is that he wins this fight without breaking a sweat and we are again left wondering how good he truly is.
UFC SAO PAULO PICK: Almeida
Co-Main Event - Welterweight
Gabriel Bonfim (15-0-0) v. Nicolas Dalby (22-4-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Bonfim ($9,300), Dalby ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Bonfim (-600), Dalby (+440)
Few fighters in company history, if any, have started their careers as well as Bonfim. He's a perfect 15-0, with 15 wins (3 knockouts, 12 submissions) via stoppage. He tapped out Trey Waters in just over four minutes on Dana White's Contender Series last September. His two official fights with the UFC have been a 73-second submission over Trevin Giles and a 49-second submission over Mounir Lazzez. Obviously, this heater isn't going to continue, at least not at this level, but he's been awfully impressive to date and is clearly a fighter to keep an eye on moving forward.
Not only has Bonfim been great, but he's young, having just turned 26 years of age this past August. It's scary to think he could and should be getting better each and every time we see him inside the Octagon.
Dalby represents, by far, Bonfim's stiffest test to date. Currently in the midst of his second run with the company, Dalby is 5-1 (1NC) in his past seven bouts dating back to September 2019. All five of those victories have come via decision. He'll be 39 years a couple weeks after this event takes place, so his ceiling is quite low, but Dalby is a true professional with no significant weaknesses in his game. If nothing else, he should make Bonfim work for a victory.
It makes no sense to look at the numbers when it comes to Bonfim because none of them are remotely sustainable. He might be REALLY good, but there's no way he's going to continue to average 6.08 significant strikes landed per minute, or 4.8 takedowns per 15 minutes, while connecting on 100 percent of his attempts.
This feels for all the world like another fight to help build up a potential future star in Bonfim. I expect Dalby to give a considerably better effort than Giles or Lazzez, but my guess is that it's going to take a special talent to knock off Bonfim. Dalby, while a solid pro who will fight for your dollar, doesn't strike me as that guy.
UFC SAO PAULO PICK: Bonfim
Middleweight
Rodolfo Vieira (9-2-0) v. Armen Petrosyan (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Vieira ($7,900), Petrosyan ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Vieira (+100), Petrosyan (-120)
Vieira is one of the most decorated submission specialists in the history of the sport. A four-time BJJ World Champion, Rodolfo, now 34 years old, has all of nine professional MMA fights under his belt. He's alternated wins and losses in his past five bouts, defeating Saparbek Safarov, Dustin Stoltzfus, and Cody Brundage, while losing to Anthony Hernandez and Chris Curtis. The obvious concern is that Hernandez and Curtis are lightyears better than the three guys Vieira beat. Rodolfo has just one career win via knockout, and it's more than fair to wonder how he will be successful if those submission attempts don't materialize.
Another product of Dana White's Contender Series, Petrosyan has seen his UFC run go better than I anticipated. He's 3-1 in four official fights with the company, with the lone defeat coming against the highly-regarded Caio Borralho, who is also on this card. Petrosyan has excellent size for the division (6-foot-3) and is a volume striker (5.97 significant strikes landed per minute). He displayed finishing power prior to his arrival with the UFC, but that hasn't really translated during his official time with the company.
The breakdown of this fight is extremely straightfoward. Vieira will try to get it to the mat, while Petrosyan will sell out to whatever is necessary to remain standing.
The immediate and obvious concern is Armen's poor takedown defense. He defends just 36-percent of his attempts, a woeful number. He did stuff all three tries from Christian Duncan in his last bout, but prior to that, each of his first fight UFC opponents (including his fight on the Contender Series) got him to the mat at least twice. Now he's going up against a BJJ black belt in Vieira who averages 3.7 takedowns per 15 minutes. I'm highly skeptical Petrosyan will be able to remain upright for 15 minutes.
I also think he's going to have difficulty getting back to his feet if Vieira grounds him. I might feel differently if Petrosyan had shown any stopping power during his time with the UFC, but since he hasn't, I don't like his chances of winning a decision given Vieira's elite grappling game. Toss in the salary savings, and this is a clear underdog pick.
UFC SAO PAULO PICK: Vieira
Welterweight
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (24-7-0) v. Rinat Fakhretdinov (21-1-0)
DK Salaries: Zaleski dos Santos ($7,100), Fakhretdinov ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Zaleski dos Santos (+275), Fakhretdinov (-345)
I've been a Zaleski dos Santos supporter for a while. Set to turn 37 years of age in mid-November, the Brazilian gives you an honest effort each and every time out. He's won 10 of his last 12, although his career was somewhat derailed by a year-long USADA suspension in September 2022. As a result, he didn't fight at all from October 2021 to June 2023. Included in that stretch of victories are wins over Sean Strickland and Benoit Saint-Denis, so ZDS hasn't built his brand by beating up inferior competition.
Unfortunately for Elizeu, he gets a stone-cold killer in Fakhretdinov. Yes, the sample size is small, but Rinat has been brilliant in three UFC bouts. He took back-to-back unanimous decisions over Bryan Battle and Andreas Michailidis before submitting Kevin Lee in 55 seconds this past July, sending the "Motown Phenom" into retirement in the process. Again, like Almeida, I'd like to see Fakhretdinov continue this level of production as the competition level increases, but I'm a fan.
Zaleski dos Santos is tough, durable and not afraid to mix things up. It's volume-over-power on the feet, although he does have 14 career wins via knockout. You can employ that type of aggressive style when you've been stopped via strikes just once in more than 30 pro bouts. I'm not sure brawling Fakhretdinov is the way to go about things, but that's what ZDS does, and that's what I'm sure he'll do here.
The biggest question in this fight is whether or not Zaleski dos Santos can stay up right for any significant length of time. His 65 percent takedown defense is mediocre, and while the sample size is small, Fakhretdinov is averaging 5.82 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing 63 percent of his attempts. If the Brazilian finds himself on the mat, I'm not sure he'll be getting back up.
I'm not sure Rinat is a top-five fighter in a deep welterweight division, but I definitely think he's well above average and should continue to pile up the victories until the competition level really picks up. Zaleski dos Santos is a step in that direction, but I don't think it's enough.
UFC SAO PAULO PICK: Fakhretdinov
Other Bouts
Heavyweight
Rodrigo Nascimento (10-1-0, 1NC) v. Don'Tale Mayes (10-5-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Nascimento ($8,800), Mayes ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Nascimento (-190), Mayes (+160)
UFC SAO PAULO PICK: Nascimento
Middleweight
Caio Borralho (14-1-0, 1NC) v. Abusupiyan Magomedov (25-5-1)
DK Salaries: Borralho ($9,200), Magomedov ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Borralho (-225), Magomedov (+215)
UFC SAO PAULO PICK: Borralho
Lightweight
Ismael Bonfim (19-4-0) v. Vinc Pichel (14-3-0)
DK Salaries: Bonfim ($9,500), Pichel ($6,700)
Vegas Odds: Bonfim (-455), Pichel (+350)
UFC SAO PAULO PICK: Bonfim
Lightweight
Elves Brener (15-3-0) v. Kaynan Kruschewsky (15-1-0)
DK Salaries: Brener ($8,200), Kruschewsky (TBD)
Vegas Odds: TBD
UFC SAO PAULO PICK: Brener
Bantamweight
Victor Hugo (24-4-0) v. Daniel Marcos (15-0-0)
DK Salaries: Hugo ($7,300), Marcos ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Hugo (+205), Marcos (-250)
UFC SAO PAULO PICK: Marcos
Light Heavyweight
Vitor Petrino (9-0-0) v. Modestas Bukauskas (15-5-0)
DK Salaries: Petrino ($9,000), Bukauskas ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Petrino (-220), Bukauskas (+180)
UFC SAO PAULO PICK: Petrino
Women's Strawweight
Angela Hill (15-13-0) v. Denise Gomes (8-2-0)
DK Salaries: Hill ($7,800), Gomes ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Hill (+105), Gomes (-125)
UFC SAO PAULO PICK: Gomes
FeatherweightLucas Alexander (8-3-0) v. David Onama (11-2-0)DK Salaries: Alexander ($7,500), Onama ($8,700)Vegas Odds: Alexander (+155), Onama (-195)UFC SAO PAULO PICK: Onama
Women's Strawweight
Eduarda Moura (9-0-0) v. Montserrat Ruiz (10-3-0)
DK Salaries: Moura ($9,400), Ruiz ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Moura (-440), Ruiz (+340)
UFC SAO PAULO PICK: Moura
Lightweight
Kaue Fernandes (8-1-0) v. Marc Diakiese (16-7-0)
DK Salaries: Fernandes ($7,600), Diakiese ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Fernandes (+110), Diakiese (-130)
UFC SAO PAULO PICK: Fernandes
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Sao Paulo with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
