This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 295 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $700k UFC 295 Special with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Light Heavyweight Championship
Alex Pereira (8-2-0) v. Jiri Prochazka (29-3-1)
DK Salaries: Pereira ($8,400), Prochazka ($7,800)
DK Salaries: Pereira (-130), Prochazka (+110)
With Jamahal Hill forced to vacate the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship after suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon, Pereira and Prochazka will battle for gold in the new main event.
It's a long time coming for Prochazka, who defeated Glover Teixeira for the 205-pound belt in a June 2022 bout which was awarded Fight of the Year by virtually every publication. He was due to face Glover in a rematch the following November, only to suffer a shoulder injury that led to him vacating the title himself. It's only fitting his return bout will be for the crown.
Pereira, the former UFC Middleweight Champion, made his light heavyweight debut this past July, taking a split decision from Jan Blachowicz. It was a close, competitive fight which played out virtually how everyone expected. Alex had a big advantage in the striking game, particularly at distance, but he also allowed Jan to land 3-of-8 takedowns for 7:32 worth of control time. Grappling is never going to be a strength of Pereira, but he faces an opponent here in Prochazka that appears far more likely to engage him in the slugfest he is seeking.
These two guys are mirror images of each other. Both are big, physical strikers with elite power and questionable secondary skills. The latter part seems unlikely to matter here, as both fight the same way.
Alex is an inch taller, while Jiri will enter with an inch edge in reach. Prochazka is nearly six years younger, although he's the guy coming off an injury, while Pereira has been active of late, as this will be his fourth fight (Blachowicz, Israel Adesanya x2) in the past 364 days.
I've gone back and forth here, but the one thing I can't get out of my head is how much damage Prochazka tends to absorb. He ate 111 significant strikes from Glover. Heck, he ate 63 significant strikes from Dominick Reyes in his prior bout, a fight that lasted less than two rounds. On average, he absorbs 5.4 significant strikes per minute, and I'm not sure you can win that way against a power puncher with the kickboxing exploits of Pereira.
It's absolutely fair to wonder if the type of damage sustained in the Teixeira fight will damage Jiri down the road. We might not see it here, but it's definitely a concern moving forward.
Ultimately, I have no strong lean here one way or another. I view it as essentially a pick 'em, which is more or less what the odds and salaries indicate.
I'll pick Pereira because he's been the more active fighter and because of Jiri's brawling tendencies, but it's far from a confident selection.
UFC 295 PICK: Pereira
Co-Main Event - Interim Heavyweight Championship
Sergei Pavlovich (18-1-0) v. Tom Aspinall (13-3-0)
DK Salaries: Pavlovich ($8,000), Aspinall ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Pavlovich (-105), Aspinall (-115)
By now, everyone knows the story here. Jon Jones was scheduled to defend his UFC Heavyweight Championship against Stipe Miocic in the main event of this card, but Jones was forced to withdraw about two weeks ago due to a pectoral injury that will require surgery. The UFC quickly pivoted to an interim title fight between these two, with the winner presumably getting Jones (though there's no guarantee the promotion doesn't just go right back to Bones vs. Stipe when ready).
As far as interim title bouts go, this is the rare one that makes sense because it features by far the two most deserving guys in the division, Stipe included.
Pavlovich made his UFC debut almost exactly five years ago. He was knocked out by Alistair Overeem in that fight. Since then, he's 6-0 with six first-round knockout victories. The competition he has gone up against -- Curtis Blaydes, Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis, Shamil Abdurakhimov, Maurice Greene, Marcelo Golm -- isn't the best, but you can't argue with the results.
Aspinall won each of his first five UFC bouts via stoppage before suffering a knee injury 15 seconds into a bout against Blaydes in July 2022. He returned this past July and destroyed Marcin Tybura in 73 seconds. Tom is an exceptional athlete for any division, but he especially stands out competing at heavyweight. Fighters that check in at 6-foot-5 and 255 pounds aren't supposed to be as fluid as Aspinall.
Tom has real power, with ten career wins coming via knockout, but getting into slugfest with Pavolvich is a potential recipe for disaster. It's clear as day the cleanest path to victory is to try to get Sergei to the mat.
In essence, this is a similar breakdown to Pavlovich's last fight against Blaydes. Curtis fought very foolishly in that fight, going for just one takedown (it failed), and he eventually paid for it. I don't expect Aspinall to make the same mistake.
To give you an idea how little Pavolvich has been forced to wrestle, Sergei he faced just two takedown ATTEMPTS in his past six fights combined. We don't really know if he can wrestle because no one has tried to consistently get him to the mat. He's definitely big and strong, but we know little about his technique from a grappling perspective, nor do we know all that much about his cardio since he never gets out of the first round.
I'm always willing to back the better athlete with the better all-around game. Pavlovich could very easily enter the Octagon and knock Tom's head off in ten seconds, but Aspinall definitely has more advantages going into this fight than Sergei.
UFC 295 PICK: Aspinall
Women's Strawweight
Jessica Andrade (24-12-0) v. Mackenzie Dern (13-3-0)
DK Salaries: Andrade ($7,200), Dern ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Andrade (+165), Dern (-200)
Andrade is one of the best female fighters in the history of the sport, but it's all came crashing down for her in the past nine months. She's fought three times so far in 2023, suffering three stoppage defeats at the hands of Erin Blanchfield, Yan Xiaonan and Tatiana Suarez. Of course, Blanchfield and Suarez are quite good, but Andrade is now 32 years of age and has been extremely active in recent years. Losing is one thing, but not being competitive is another. Andrade might be done.
Sporting a 2-2 record in her past four bouts with each of those fights going to a decision, I'm still not buying the fact Dern has turned any sort of corner. Sure, she's elite on the mat, and her striking has improved some over the years, but she'll be 31 years of age next March and her best win to date is probably over Virna Jandiroba. Dern is a solid fighter, but I still don't see a high ceiling.
While Mackenzie is a BJJ wiz, no one seems to talk about the fact she has no way of actually getting her opposition to the mat. She averages 0.81 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing a woeful 15 percent of her attempts. Then there's the fact she doesn't have a single knockout victory in her career. To summarize, Dern's only chance of stopping her opposition is if she is lucky enough to catch a limb at some point during a fight.
Of course, there's a very real chance Andrade is totally washed up and none of this matters in the least. Nine of Jessica's dozen career defeats have come via stoppage. While her recent three stoppage defeats are highly concerning, it's not as if she was the definition of durability earlier in her career.
Dern has to be the pick given how terrible Andrade has been of late, but I don't like the price tag. At all. I'm still not a believer despite her strong recent run.
The undercard of this event is not particularly deep, especially for a PPV at Madison Square Garden, so I can't blame anyone wanting to get a piece of this fight. If you find yourself in that position, Dern is the clear lean.
UFC 295 PICK: Dern
Lightweight
Matt Frevola (11-3-1) v. Benoit Saint-Denis (12-1-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Frevola ($7,100), Saint Denis ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Frevola (+190), Saint Denis (-230)
Frevola had one knockout victory in his first dozen professional fights. He earned a reputation as a hard-nosed wrestler who was plenty tough but got by mostly on guts and determination. Well, something changed starting in January 2022. "The Steamrolla" has since picked up three straight first-round knockout victories. He finished Ottman Azaitar at Madison Square Garden last November, and is fresh off his most impressive win to date over Drew Dober -- a high-end Muay Thai specialist -- this past May. It's been a great run, but none of it appears sustainable in my eyes. Yes, the UFC put Frevola, a Long Island native, on the main card of a PPV at MSG here, but they certainly didn't do him any favors with regards to this matchup.
Saint-Denis has come out of nowhere to earn a reputation as one of the most entertaining and underrated fighters in the company. The Frenchman dropped a unanimous decision to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in October 2021 and has since picked up four straight wins. Saint-Denis is an elite wrestler, his cardio is exceptional and he's tough as hell. Simply put, he keeps coming. Even if he's getting beaten up, he keeps coming. In many ways, it's the type of fighting style we saw from Frevola originally, but Benoit has taken it to another level entirely.
Outside of Frevola having the crowd behind him, it's difficult to find an advantage he has in this fight. For starters, Saint-Denis has a two-inch edge in both height and reach.
While Matt's 2.26 takedowns landed per 15 minutes seems like a solid number, it pales in comparison to the 4.72 per 15 than Benoit picks up. Then there's Frevola's woeful 42 percent takedown defense compared to Saint Denis' 80 percent mark in that area.
We've see Saint Denis absorb a TON of punishment at times during his brief run with the company and keep on ticking. If Frevola is somehow able to knock him out and make it four in a row, I'll be very surprised.
The most likely outcome is this quickly devolves into a grinding, back-and-forth affair, at which point the toughness, cardio and all-around game of Saint Denis eventually wins out.
I feel quite confident about this pick, but fair warning, I did bet against Frevola in every fight during this three-bout winning streak.
UFC 295 PICK: Saint-Denis
Featherweight
Diego Lopes (22-6-0) v. Pat Sabatini (18-4-0)
DK Salaries: Lopes ($7,900), Sabatini ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Lopes (+100), Sabatini (-120)
Outside of a fluky 69-second knockout defeat to Damon Jackson in September 2022, Sabatini has been perfect in the UFC, winning his other five bouts. Sabatani is a big, strong guy and has shown quality wrestling during his time with the company, but he's also 32 years of age and has defeated absolutely nobody of note.
We have even less background on Lopes, who dropped a technical unanimous decision to Joanderson Brito on Dana White's Contender Series in August 2021. He still got a shot with the UFC this past May, dropping another unanimous decision, this time to Movsar Evloev. He responded with a first-round submission of Gavin Tucker three months later. The win over Tucker should ensure Lopes remains a member of the roster regardless of what happens here.
At 5-foot-8, it's rare Sabatini finds himself as the smaller man in a featherweight fight, but he's giving up three inches in height and two inches in reach to Lopes. Diego's striking defense is highly questionable, as he eats 4.92 significant strikes per minute, so it's far from a guarantee the disadvantages Pat faces will come back to haunt him here.
The obvious concern here for Lopes here is that Sabatini plasters him to the mat for 15 minutes. Pat averages 3.38 takedown per 15 minutes while landing a whopping 45 percent of his attempts. Diego gave up three takedowns to Brito, four to Evloev, and allowed Tucker to land his only attempt. Keep in mind that last bout lasted less than two minutes.
In short, we have yet to see Lopes remain upright in a fight.
On a card without a ton of favorable lines, this looks like one in Sabatini's favor.
He's definitely the stronger man, and as long as he sticks with the takedown, I think he wins. If the first few takedowns don't succeed, Sabatini needs to stick with it and fire off a third and fourth attempt. I expect plenty of ground control time and an eventual Sabatini win. Lopes will have to show something we haven't seen thus far if he's to emerge victorious.
UFC 295 PICK: Sabatini
OTHER BOUTS
Flyweight
Steve Erceg (10-1-0) v. Alessandro Costa (13-3-0)
DK Salaries: Erceg ($8,600), Costa ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Erceg (-165), Costa (+140)
UFC 295 PICK: Erceg
Women's Strawweight
Tabatha Ricci (9-1-0) v. Lupita Godinez (11-3-0)
DK Salaries: Ricci ($7,500), Godinez ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Ricci (+145), Godinez (-170)
UFC 295 PICK: Ricci
Lightweight
Mateusz Rebecki (18-1-0) v. Roosevelt Roberts (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Rebecki ($9,600), Roberts ($6,600)
Vegas Odds: Rebecki (-700), Roberts (+500)
UFC 295 PICK: Rebecki
Lightweight
Nazim Sadykhov (9-1-0) v. Slava Borshchev (7-3-0)
DK Salaries: Sadykhov ($8,500), Borschev ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Sadykhov (-135), Borschev (+115)
UFC 295 PICK: Sadykhov
Lightweight
Jared Gordon (19-6-0, 1NC) v. Mark Madsen (12-1-0)
DK Salaries: Gordon ($8,900), Madsen ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Gordon (-200), Madsen (+165)
UFC 295 PICK: Madsen
Bantamweight
John Castaneda (20-6-0) v. Kyung Ho Kang (19-9-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries; Castaneda ($8,000), Kang ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Castaneda (-140), Kang (+120)
UFC 295 PICK: Castaneda
Flyweight
Joshua Van (8-1-0) v. Kevin Borjas (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Van ($9,200), Borjas ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Van (-220), Borjas (+180)
UFC 295 PICK: Van
Featherweight
Dennis Buzukja (8-3-0) v. Jamall Emmers (19-7-0)
DK Salaries: Buzukja ($6,800), Emmers ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Buzukja (+210), Emmers (-260)
UFC 295 PICK: Emmers
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 295 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
