This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC 315 DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks
UFC 315 DFS picks are set for Saturday, May 10, with breakdowns of the top fights on DraftKings and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $600k UFC 315 Special with $200k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Welterweight Championship
(C) Belal Muhammad (24-3-0, 1NC) v. Jack Della Maddalena (17-2-0)
DK Salaries: Muhammad ($8,700), Della Maddalena ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Muhammad (-190), Della Maddalena (+160)
Muhammad won the title last July, completely smothering former champ Leon Edwards in a dominant unanimous decision victory. He was due for his first title defense against Shavkat Rakhmonov in December before being forced to withdraw due to a foot ailment. Rakhmonov wasn't ready to fight here, so Della Maddalena gets the call.
Belal is one of the rare fighters that has legitimately improved as he's aged. He'll be 37 years old in a few months. Muhammad is undefeated in his last 11 fights (10-0, 1NC) and is without a loss on his ledger dating back to January 2019. He's one of my favorite fighters to watch, and more importantly, one of my favorite fighters to constantly back due to the style he employs.
It hasn't always been pretty, but Della Maddalena is undefeated in seven UFC bouts, with four knockouts and a submission win mixed in, so he's done his job in terms of earning a title shot. The two wins in which he didn't earn the stoppage were both via split decision, over Kevin Holland and Bassil Hafez. I don't have JDM rated amongst the top welterweights on the roster, but he's not far off and he'll get a chance to prove as much here.
Muhammad has becoming increasingly reliant on his wrestling game in recent years. He landed nine takedowns in the win over Edwards. He put up five against Vicente Luque and seven against Stephen Thompson. In between, Belal beat both Gilbert Burns and Sean Brady in stand-up affairs.
Belal has some of the best cardio in the sport. He's built for five-round fights and is almost always going to have an edge in the championship rounds. I expect a major advantage over Della Maddalena in Rounds 4 and 5, if it gets there.
On the flip side, Jack is the clear better striker of the two. He's landing a ridiculous 6.74 significant strikes per minute, and while Della Maddalena's stand-up defense is reckless, he's not really at risk of being knocked out by Belal, who has very little pure power.
The game plan for JDM is clear. Stuff the takedown attempts from Belal and do enough damage on the feet-- particularly in the first 15 minutes -- to build up a lead on the scorecards.
I don't think it's going to be enough. He had massive problems with the grappling game of Hafez before the latter gassed. Muhammad isn't going to gas. I think Belal is able to rack up enough control time to earn a convincing decision.
THE PICK: Muhammad
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Co-Main Event - Women's Flyweight Championship
(C) Valentina Shevchenko (24-4-1) v. Manon Fiorot (12-1-0)
DK Salaries: Shevchenko ($7,700), Fiorot ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Shevchenko (+125), Fiorot (-150)
Now 37 years old, Shevchenko ended her three-fight feud with Alexa Grasso last September, dominating in a unanimous decision victory to regain her title. Valentina fought three times from June 2022 to September 2023 (twice against Grasso and one against Talia Santos) and looked mediocre in all of them, going 1-1-1 in that span. Shevchenko is clearly on the back-nine of her career, but she has enough natural ability to continue to make waves in a thin division.
Fiorot has done more than enough to earn her title shot. She joined the UFC in January 2021 with all of six professional fights under her belt. She's won each of her first seven bouts with the company. Included in that stretch are wins over the likes of Rose Namajunas and Erin Blanchfield. Each of the last five victories have come via decision, so expect a prolonged battle in this one. Fiorot has been on the sidelines since her March 2023 win over Blanchfield, seemingly waiting out her championship opportunity.
Valentina wins with brute strength and physicality. I actually think her striking is starting to regress a bit, but her grappling game remains elite. She's landed at least three takedowns in eight straight fights. Simply put, she overwhelmed Grasso in their most recent bout with her wrestling. She had a storied run as a Muay Thai specialist in the past, but I feel as if Shevchenko is only to go as far as her grappling takes her in the latter stages of her career.
Numbers wise, Fiorot has the exact type of skill set that could give Valentina trouble.
She has displayed the ability to rack up a ton of volume on the feet, averaging 6.26 significant strikes per minute. Heck, she landed 172 significant strikes in her five-round win over Blanchfield.
Fiorot's offensive grappling is pretty limited, but it's her defensive grappling that may end up being the difference. She's rocking a 93 percent takedown defense to date. She gave up one takedown to Jennifer Maia in a March 2022 bout and that's been it. Blanchfield, a noted wrestler, went 0-for-3 in their fight.
Considering where they are at in their respective careers, I'd take Manon all day long in a prolonged kickboxing match. That should be her goal. To simply remain upright and overwhelm Valentina on the feet.
Still, I keep coming back to Valentina's last performance against Grasso. She proved there's plenty of gas left in the tank and $7,700 feels like a very fair price given Shevchenko's pedigree combined with the fact I view this as more of a pick 'em fight. I'll take the champion to retain in a close one.
THE PICK: Shevchenko
Like this underdog suggestion? Try it out with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Women's Flyweight
Alexa Grasso (16-4-1) v. Natalia Silva (18-5-1)
DK Salaries: Grasso ($7,400), Silva ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Grasso (+195), Silva (-240)
I touched on Grasso earlier, as her story is greatly entwined with that of Shevchenko. Grasso shocked the world in submitting Valentina for the belt back in March 2023. She retained the title via split draw in September of that year and then dropped the gold a year later. Alexa is clearly better than I originally gave her credit for, but she lacks physicality and has limited mat skills, which is why Valentina was eventually able to wear her down. She won't be 32 years of age until August, so there's no reason to think she's nearing the end, but a loss to Silva would make it difficult to get back in the title picture in a reasonable time frame, even while competing in the thinnest division in the sport.
This is a clear barometer test for Silva and she's earned it by going 6-0 in her first half dozen bouts with the company. A good chunk of those wins have come against mediocre competition, but her last victory was over a former world champion in Jessica Andrade and the 125-pound female division simply doesn't have the depth to allow the company to slow play Silva's rise any longer. She's probably going to get a title shot if she wins here and it would appear to be a true lock if she wins impressively.
Grasso can mix in a takedown here and there, but I wouldn't count on it happening here given the strength edge I predict Silva will have. Instead, Alexa is going to have to win a point kickboxing match, which is typically where she is at her best. Of course, I don't think Silva is simply going to stand around and allow that to happen.
It's important the Brazilian push the pace in hopes of getting Grasso off of her game. If this turns into a technical, back-and-forth affair, I think it favors Alexa. Silva should have the edge in terms of both speed and pure power.
While I don't like the price tag, this has all the makings of the UFC trying to build Silva up against a notable and popular former champion. It's by no means a coincidence this fight was booked on the same card as this division's championship fight. The company is hoping Silva's rise to title prominence continues, and I think it will. I think the physicality will just be too much for Grasso in the end.
THE PICK: Silva
Bantamweight
Jose Aldo (32-9-0) v. Aiemann Zahabi (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Aldo ($9,000), Zahabi ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Aldo (-220), Zahabi (+180)
Now 38 years old, Aldo returned last May after nearly two years away and took a unanimous decision from Jonathan Martinez. There was no talk at the time of the retired Aldo returning to action and many, myself included, thought it was because the event was taking place in Aldo's native Rio de Janeiro and/or because the card was lackluster. He kept fighting however, dropping a split decision to Mario Bautista in October in one of the most closely-contested fights you will ever see. Aldo has some gas left in the tank. Being 38 years old is usually a death sentence in a lighter weight class, but Aldo's ability to stay competitive speaks to his work ethic and overall skill level.
This is by far the biggest fight of Zahabi's career. A native of Laval, Quebec, a suburb of Montreal, Zahabi barely competed early on in his UFC run. He fought twice in 2017, not at all in 2018, once in 2019, not at all in 2020, once in 2021, 2023, and 2023, and then twice in 2024. He's won five fights in a row and has victories over reasonable competition such as Pedro Munhoz and Javid Basharat during that stretch. Working against Zahabi is the fact he'll be 38 years old in late November.
Aldo's style of fighting hasn't changed. Sure, he's a bit slower and not as effective as he was in the stand-up in his heyday, but he still possesses elite takedown defense and can outpoint you on the feet. He stuffed all 10 takedown attempts in his loss to Bautista, the main reason he even had a chance to win a decision. It's all going to fall apart eventually, but I have zero idea when and I still feel pretty comfortable backing him against mid-level competition such as Zahabi.
Numbers wise, Zahabi is about the most boring fighter on the roster. He lands 4.06 significant strikes per minute on average, the exact same number which he absorbs. I'd term his power middling despite the fact he has six career wins via knockout. He has no offensive grappling to speak of despite being a BJJ black belt and I don't think he would have a prayer in a million years of getting Aldo to the mat even if he wanted to.
That leaves us with a kickboxing match which seems destined to go the entire 15 minutes.
Zahabi did put up 109 significant strikes in his most recent win over Munhoz, but that performance was a major outlier. His previous career-best mark in that category was 75 and he's typically more in the 44-55 range over the course of a full 15 minutes.
Zahabi is going to have the crowd behind him, but I think the good times end there.
Aldo is going to have trouble down the road against some younger, freak athlete, but Zahabi clearly isn't that. I think Jose is a value play this week, even given his price tag.
THE PICK: Aldo
Lightweight
Benoit Saint-Denis (13-3-0, 1NC) v. Kyle Prepolec (18-8-0)
DK Salaries: Saint Denis ($9,700), Prepolec ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Saint Denis (-1000), Prepolec (+650)
Saint-Denis was scheduled to face Joel Alvarez here before the latter pulled out with a hand injury earlier in the week. Seeking to keep BSD on the card, the company tabbed Prepolec, a local Canadian fighter from Ontario.
Saint-Denis is one of the toughest fighters on the roster to figure out. A former French Paratrooper, BSD earned five straight stoppage wins from June 2022 to November 2023. That earned him a co-main event fight at UFC 299 against Dustin Poirier. Apparently under the weather, Saint Denis emptied the gas tank immediately knowing his energy would be limited. He was unable to get Dustin out of there and was eventually knocked out midway through Round 2. Understandable. He had a chance to get back on track in a main event spot against Renato Moicano in Paris in September and completely no-showed, getting finished at the end of the second frame via a doctor stoppage. He should again have the crowd behind him here, but he's entirely untrustworthy until further notice,. I was picking Alvarez over him, but circumstances have obviously changed.
Prepolec is an interesting story. Now 35 years old, he fought in the UFC in 2019, dropping decisions to Austin Hubbard and Nordine Taleb before getting released. He's won three straight fights on the Canadian regional scene via first-round knockout. Prepolec has also competed in Bellator in the past and fought Kevin Lee in something called "Michiana Fight League" back in April 2013. It's a near-impossible spot, but in terms of a super-late-notice option, Prepolec isn't a bad choice.
I think the best thing you can say about BSD at this point is that he is a hard-nosed grappler that will fight for your dollar. He's ridiculously tough and you have to throw everything but the kitchen sink at him to get him out of there. Unfortunately, that's now happened in back-to-back appearances.
The good news for Saint-Denis is that he does have a clear path to victory here. We obviously don't have any statistics for Prepolec's recent run on the regional scene, but he gave up three takedowns in his loss to Hubbard. I can't imagine his takedown defense has improved given his age and the fact he's been fighting lower-end competition ever since.
Prepolec is also low volume on the feet, averaging 3.2 significant strikes landed per minute. He found himself on the short end of a 90-52 significant strike count in the Taleb fight.
To summarize, Prepolec is very competent for the regional scene, but he's shown no ability to compete at this level and now he's facing a guy light years better than Hubbard and Taleb and he's doing it at an advanced age.
Sadly, none of this really matters because you can't do anything with BSD at $9,700. The -1000 at the time of writing is by far the best price on the market. I expect this to be closer to -1500 when the fight kicks off. Just sit back and enjoy and find value elsewhere.
THE PICK: Saint Denis
More UFC 315 Picks
Welterweight
Mike Malott (11-2-1) v. Charlie Radtke (10-4-0)
DK Salaries: Malott ($8,900), Radtke ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Malott (-205), Radtke (+170)
THE PICK: Malott
Women's Flyweight
Jessica Andrade (26-13-0) v. Jasmine Jasudavicius (13-3-0)
DK Salaries: Andrade ($7,000), Jasudavicius ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Andrade (+230), Jasudavicius (-285)
THE PICK: Jasudavicius
Light Heavyweight
Modestas Bukauskas (17-6-0) v. Ion Cutelaba (19-10-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Bukauskas ($8,000), Cutelaba ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Bukauskas (-105), Cutelaba (-110)
THE PICK: Bukauskas
Light Heavyweight
Navajo Stirling (6-0-0) v. Ivan Erslan (14-4-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Stirling ($9,100), Erslan ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Stirling (-300), Erslan (-240)
THE PICK: Stirling
Featherweight
Daniel Santos (12-2-0) v. Jeong Yeong Lee (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Santos ($8,300), Lee ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Santos (-115), Lee (-105)
THE PICK: Santos
Bantamweight
Brad Katona (16-4-0) v. Bekzat Almakhan (11-2-0)
DK Salaries: Katona ($7,600), Almakhan ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Katona (+155), Almakhan (-185)
THE PICK: Katona
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC 315 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
