Tuesday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

My rankings are determined by a Corsi-based Rating System that I created, the average Rating is about 49 per game. Like Corsi, this represents the total number of shot attempts per game either for or against, but it's also adjusted for shooting percentage and save percentage. Any shot attempt counts, whether it is on goal, off target or blocked, which is why the average hovers around 49, rather than the league average shots on goal (31.6). With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 57.7 (TOR) to a worst of 45.7 (VAN), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 44.1 (NSH) to a worst of 60.6 (OTT) -- Ottawa is so bad, the next worst team is 53.3 (CHI). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. I am hoping these values clearly show how good or bad a team ranks by equating it to shot attempts per game.

Slate Preview: Tuesday, December 11, 2018

The Main Slate on Tuesday features 10 games with a lot of expensive options, so many I cannot even make a dent in the total options in this article. Detroit and Los Angeles are playing the second of a back-to-back, both traveling to new cities to face strong opponents in Washington and Buffalo, respectively.

The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Also shown are my projected Shots on Goal, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Starting Goalies are listed with either a Projected or Confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

*All stats are projected figures based on my ranking formulas, using 2017-18 and current year statistics.

Expensive Line Stacks

(The number next to the player name is the power-play line they are slated to skate with, if a 0 is shown, that means they are not on either power-play line.)

BUF1 vs. LA: Jack Eichel-1 ($7,700 FD, $7,500 DK), Jeff Skinner-1 ($6,900 FD, $6,600 DK), Sam Reinhart-1 ($5,800 FD, $5,500 DK) - This is quite possibly the hottest line in the league right now with 10 goals and nine assists over the past five games. BUF1 draws an elite matchup against a tired Kings squad who is traveling on a back-to-back and starting Cal Petersen in net.

WAS1 vs. DET: Alex Ovechkin-1 ($8,900 FD, $8,100 DK), Nicklas Backstrom-1 ($7,400 FD, $5,800 DK), T.J. Oshie-1 ($5,900 FD, $6,000 DK) - Washington draws Detroit coming off a back-to-back and will likely see Jonathan Bernier (3.38 GAA, .893 SV%) in net, which is a significant drop off from Red Wings starter Jimmy Howard. Couple that with a poor defense (51.9 DR) and you have a recipe for a great spot for the top Capitals line. Oshie is likely to return Tuesday from a lengthy absence due to a concussion, and he will skate on the top line with Ovechkin and Backstrom, this group should draw a ton of ice time as the clear top offensive and defensive line for Washington

WPG1 vs. CHI: Mark Scheifele-1 ($8,400 FD, $7,700 DK), Blake Wheeler-1 ($7,600 FD, $7,400 DK), Nikolaj Ehlers-2 ($5,600 FD, $6,100 DK) - Winnipeg was back at it Sunday with a 7-1 victory against Philadelphia after being shut out against St. Louis on Friday, I think we can just write off that game to the randomness of sports. Winnipeg draws a great matchup Tuesday against an old and slow Chicago team that has held a lead for a grand total of 41 seconds in their last 10 games. Chicago allows the second-most High Danger Chances per game (13.6) so all Winnipeg options are in play, but there is no doubt that the Scheifele/Wheeler/Ehlers group has been the one of the best in the league with 11 goals and 22 assists over the past seven games.

BOS1 vs. ARI: David Pastrnak-1 ($8,200 FD, $7,800 DK), Brad Marchand-1 ($7,900 FD, $6,400 DK), David Krejci-2 ($5,900 FD, $5,900 DK) - After the injury to Patrice Bergeron, Boston insisted on trying to make Colby Cave work as the top-line center for a handful of games with little to show for it, but two games into using Krejci up top has resulted in four goals from the line and two victories. Arizona looks to be starting Darcy Kuemper in net after an injury stint, so there likely will be some rust to shake off in his first game back.

Also in play: COL1 vs EDM, CLS1 vs VAN, STL1 vs FLA, WPG2 vs CHI, TOR1/2 at CAR, EDM1 at COL, MIN1 vs MON (There are so many good options Tuesday)

VALUE LINE STACKS

VAN2 at CLS: Brock Boeser-1 ($6,600 FD, $6,500 DK), Elias Pettersson-1 ($6,300 FD, $6,400 DK), Josh Leivo-1 ($3,000 FD, $3,100 DK) - This could be a good game stack if you can squeeze in all the pieces, but for value VAN2 looks to be one of the bigger upside options Tuesday. Columbus has played poor defense this year (50.8 DR) and had some poor goaltending from Sergei Bobrovsky and Joonas Korpisalo, both of whom sport save percentages under .900. You are not likely to get eight points from this line again Tuesday (Boeser Hat Trick, Pettersson goal and four assists), but Columbus has allowed 16 goals in their last three games, includes 13 at home in two games.

NSH1 vs. OTT: Ryan Johansen-1 ($5,700 FD, $5,400 DK), Kevin Fiala-2 ($4,500 FD, $4,800 DK), Ryan Hartman-2 ($3,600 FD, $4,500 DK) - This line shows up as the top value option in my rankings on Tuesday, but I don't think it has quite the upside as the VAN2 line, however, they do have four goals and four assists in the last four games, so the matchup against Ottawa gives them significant multi-point upside.

CAR2 vs. TOR: Andrei Svechnikov-1 ($3,800 FD, $4,900 DK), Justin Williams-1 ($4,300 FD, $4,400 DK), Lucas Wallmark-2 ($3,200 FD, $3,900 DK) – CAR1 is a good option Tuesday, but for some extreme value and upside look to CAR2, where you can get both Svechnikov and Williams on the top power play plus a high volume offensive game at home against Toronto (52.2 DR); the whole line only costs $11,300 on FanDuel and $13,200 on DraftKings.

Also in play: CAR1 vs TOR, NSH2 vs OTT, CLS2 vs VAN, OTT1 at NSH

Solo Forward Options

Auston Matthews-1 TOR2 at CAR ($8,500 FD, $8,300 DK) - Matthews against Petr Mrazek, do we really need to delve further into this?

Craig Smith-1 NSH2 vs. OTT ($5,000 FD, $4,900 DK) - Smith is the top option on his line, has a spot on the top power play, and a matchup against Ottawa. That seems like a lot to like for the price.

Andreas Johnsson-2 TOR2 at CAR ($3,600 FD, $5,100 DK) - An elite value play on FanDuel playing alongside Auston Matthews, Johnsson has five goals and five assists in his past seven games.

Jordan Martinook-0 CAR1 vs. TOR ($3,400 FD, $5,000 DK) - Toronto goaltender Frederik Andersen is one of the best in the league, but Carolina will likely tally one of the highest shot totals Tuesday, and they lead the league in High Danger Chances with 16.5 per game; with a spot on the top line, Martinook offers a lot of upside for the price.

Defensemen

John Carlson-1 WAS vs. DET ($6,800 FD, $6,600 DK) - Probably the best offensive defenseman in hockey who doesn't play for San Jose, if you can squeeze Carlson in with your Washington rosters, you should reap rewards from most of the Washington goals this evening.

Torey Krug-1 BOS vs. ARI ($6,000 FD, $5,800 DK) - Krug has been one of the few Boston players who hasn't really felt the effects of the Patrice Bergeron injury as he has notched at least an assist in seven of the last eight games, including two goals and three assists over the past two games following the Krejci promotion to the top line.

Alexander Edler-1 VAN at CLS ($4,700 FD, $5,200 DK) - Edler is one of the better values on the board Tuesday with a floor of around five peripherals per night and a great chance to add onto that by getting onto the score sheet.

Jacob Trouba-2 WPG vs. CHI ($4,900 FD, $5,000 DK) - Josh Morrissey is headed to IR which opens up valuable minutes for Winnipeg defensemen and Trouba will play on the top defensive pairing and likely lead the team in ice time. It's simple, more time on the ice equals more chances to get fantasy points.

Colton Parayko-2 STL vs. FLA ($4,200 FD, $4,400 DK) - There is not a whole lot to harp on here, he is simply too good a value with Alex Pietrangelo injured.

Michal Kempny-0 WAS vs. DET ($3,600 FD, $4,400 DK) - If you cannot afford John Carlson, Kempny is a great value option to pair with your Washington stacks.
Also in play: Roman Josi-1 NSH vs. OTT ($6,400 FD, $6,000 DK), Seth Jones-1 CLS vs. VAN ($5,700 FD, $6,100 DK), Rasmus Ristolainen-1 BUF vs. LA ($5,000 FD, $5,300 DK), Tyler Myers-2 WPG vs. CHI ($3,800 FD, $3,600 DK)

Goalies

As always, make sure your goalie is starting, these articles are posted well before many teams announce their starter for the evening.

Frederik Andersen TOR at CAR ($9,200 FD, $8,000 DK) - Andersen offers the biggest upside of any goalie Tuesday, but there is a lot of risk involved in this matchup as Carolina leads the lead in virtually all offensive statistics regarding shots on goal. However, shots lead to saves and that is how goalies get the majority of their fantasy points as I pointed out in my initial articles. If Toronto can get the victory and Andersen can come up with one of his not-to-uncommon impressive performances, then he could be the highest scorer on the slate Tuesday goalie or skater.

Tuukka Rask BOS vs. ARI ($8,500 FD, $8,200 DK) - Rask offers one of the safest options on the board Tuesday although it likely comes with limited upside unless he can record a shutout. Boston's defense is still among the league's elite even without Patrice Bergeron in the lineup, and although Arizona has been much improved since the first month of the season, they are still a subpar offensive group on the road, so they may not be able to provide Rask with a large amount of save opportunities.

Laurent Brossoit WPG vs. CHI ($7,700 FD, $8,300 DK) - Brossoit has been a little sloppy in his last two starts (seven goals allowed on 66 shots, .894 SV%), but he was still able to win both thanks to the offensive support provided by the Jets. Chicago does take a lot of shots and has a good offensive rating in my system (53.4 OR), but they are struggling to put the puck in the net with a subpar 8.9-shooting percentage, and having lost nine of their last 10 games.

Linus Ullmark BUF vs. LA ($7,700 FD, $7,900 DK) - Ullmark has not played well in his last two starts, but he was also facing a dangerous Toronto team and a Philadelphia team that can be explosive when it is firing on all cylinders, but the numbers and situation say that Ullmark is a good option Tuesday against a Kings team that has struggled offensively and is coming off a 3-1 loss Monday in Detroit. Plus they'll likely be starting their backup goaltender in Cal Peterson.

Also in play: Braden Holtby WAS vs. DET ($8,900 FD, $8,400 DK), Semyon Varlamov COL vs. EDM ($8,600 FD, $7,700 DK)