Tuesday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

To begin, you see and hear a lot about Cash vs GPP plays in Daily Fantasy Sports, but I typically don't believe in Cash vs GPP players. If a player is good, I believe he's usable in any format.

I do believe in different Cash vs GPP lineup construction though.

In GPP Tournaments, I think you should have at least one full line stack, potentially two full stacks (or at least two forwards plus a corresponding defenseman). However, in cash-game lineups, you are probably much better off limiting your team-by-team exposure to two players maximum, with an exception of potentially using three players from the same team on smaller slates.

My favorite way to approach cash-game lineups is to choose my top player of the night and use his lower priced linemate. For example, Toronto center Auston Matthews is a great play almost nightly, but instead of pairing him with Patrick Marleau, use the cheaper wing linemate -- Kasperi Kapanen -- this way you still get exposure to two-thirds of a top Toronto line, but you save cap space to get more firepower elsewhere in your lineup.

Use this strategy by choosing one or two players from the lines below and mixing up your cash-game rosters, instead of full-line stacks as you would in your GPP lineups.

I tend to be fairly math-oriented in my research, but you should not be a slave to your rankings as numbers often lie. That said, my main sources of ranking data include a Shots/Minute, Shooting Percentage, Corsi For/Minute and Corsi Against/Minute player ranking system to determine team pace, offensive and defensive ranks.

For those of you unfamiliar with Corsi, it is a metric to determine puck possession and can also be used for pace considerations. Essentially, a Corsi For (CF) event occurs every time a specific player is on the ice when a shot is taken – whether that shot is on goal, off target, or blocked does not matter – any shot is a Corsi For event. Conversely, if the opposing team takes a shot while a specific player is on the ice, that is a Corsi Against (CA) event. Different metrics look at the ratio of CF vs. CA either as a percentage or Plus/Minus ratio.

For those of you familiar with my articles, I've made a small change to the nomenclature of my Rating System, which has an average 245 Rating/Game per team. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 281 (CHI) to a worst of 227 (VAN), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 215 (CAR) to a worst of 279 (OTT) – these numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups.

Slate Preview: Tuesday, October 22, 2018

An eight-game slate highlights the first $75,000 "Super Goal" tournament at FanDuel and $111,000 "Waffleboard" tournament at DraftKings, so there should be plenty of action across the sites Tuesday. For future articles, the following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with Offensive and Defensive Ratings.

Expensive Line Stacks

BOS1 at OTT: Patrice Bergeron (8000 FD, 7700 DK), David Pastrnak (8200 FD, 7400 DK), Brad Marchand (7900 FD, 7100 DK) – BOS1 has slowed a bit the past two games, with only a goal from David Pastrnak and assist by Brad Marchand, but a date with the league's worst defense should be enough for one of the elite lines in the league to heat up again.

DAL1 vs LA: Tyler Seguin (7900 FD, 7600 DK), Jamie Benn (8000 FD, 6900 DK), Tyler Pitlick (3200 FD, 2900 DK) – The Kings are reeling, losers of four straight while allowing 21 goals in the process. DAL1 has been quietly strong this year with 11 goals and 17 assists in seven team games, but they can be the best line in the league when they are hot, and this is a great spot to attack a struggling defense. Alexander Radulov is out, which puts Pitlick on the top line Tuesday. Pitlick makes the line stack cheaper, but he can also be ignored, allowing you to build with John Klingberg on the blue line instead of paying for Radulov.

CLS1 vs ARI: Artemi Panarin (7800 FD, 7000 DK), Cam Atkinson (7100 FD, 6600 DK), Pierre-Luc Dubois (5500 FD, 5700 DK) – Arizona has played some solid defense, despite the statistics, which means they are likely due for some adjustment upwards to the mean in Goals Allowed – five goals allowed in their previous game may have been the start of this trend. Panarin and Atkinson have been very good this year with seven goals and eight assists in seven team games, but if you want to differentiate you can probably cut Dubois from your line stack, as he has struggled out of the gate (one goal, two assists).

EDM1 vs PIT: Connor McDavid (9100 FD, 7900 DK), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (6400 FD, 5900 DK), Kailer Yamamoto (3400 FD, 4600 DK) – Pittsburgh played their best defensive game of the year last Thursday at Toronto, but they showed some serious issues defensively in other games this season. The Leafs couldn't easily obtain a matchup advantage, since they were unable to avoid the Crosby line with one of their top two lines. Conversely, Edmonton can isolate the Connor McDavid line against the non-Sidney Crosby lines and gain a tactical advantage in the matchups, especially with the benefit of getting the final line change at home Tuesday.

Value Line Stacks

FLA1 at NYR: Aleksander Barkov (7300 FD, 6800 DK), Evgeny Dadonov (6500 FD, 6800 DK), Nick Bjugstad (5000 FD, 5000 DK) &
FLA2 at NYR: Vincent Trocheck (6600 FD, 6500 DK), Jonathan Huberdeau (6200 FD, 6200 DK), Denis Malgin (3400 FD, 3800 DK) – Florida started out the year slow but has scored 14 goals in their past three games and they have a great matchup against a poor Rangers defense. Both of the top two lines for Florida are in play Tuesday, making it possible to get creative and mix and match for power-play exposure.

NYR1 vs FLA: Mika Zibanejad (6400 FD, 6200 DK), Chris Kreider (6300 FD, 5700 DK), Mats Zuccarello (6000 FD, 49000 DK) Jesper Fast (4200 FD, 3900 DK) – Florida has been scoring well lately (14 goals in three games), but they've allowed 15 over that period, and they are a much different team when anyone but Roberto Luongo is in net. Being the home team, the Rangers will be able to matchup and keep NYR1 away from the strong Aleksander Barkov defense.

Update: Zuccarello replaced Jesper Fast on the Rangers' top line ahead of Tuesday's game.

CHI1 vs ANH: Jonathan Toews (7200 FD, 6100 DK), Alex DeBrincat (6400 FD, 6300 DK), Dominik Kahun (3600 FD, 3700 DK) – This line continues to show up as one of the top values nightly in my rankings; although Anaheim has one of the elite goalies in the league starting in net Tuesday, John Gibson, they are also allowing one of the highest shots on goal totals in the league. With the CHI1 line now all playing together on the same power-play unit, I feel there is a lot of value here at home where the Blackhawks can pepper the net with shots and hopefully sneak a few past Gibson.

Solo Forward Options

These players can play be played as fill-ins with GPP stacks or in cash-game mixes, and it turns out most of the solo plays Tuesday look to be good value plays.

Anthony Duclair CLS2 vs ARI (3200 FD, 3900 DK) – One of the best values in fantasy hockey right now, Duclair is getting second-line work and top power-play unit time, while he's scored a pair of goals and is averaging over 16 minutes per night over the past four games.

Jared McCann FLA3 at NYR (3300 FD, 3600 DK) – He is not going to blow you away with a huge game, and he does not get power-play time, but with the price and the matchup, you can do a lot worse than a fill-in that has a goal and a pair of assists in his past three games.

Artem Anisimov CHI2 vs ANH (4600 FD, 4100 DK) – Languishing on the third line for most of the year, Anisimov has had a rather quiet season so far (one goal, two assists), but a promotion to a line with Patrick Kane and Nick Schmaltz should provide some dividends sooner than later.

Ben Street ANH1 at CHI (3300 FD, 3400 DK) – Keep a close eye on the line updates as the day moves along, but currently Street is slated to skate on the top line with Ryan Getzlaf and Pontus Aberg. With a pair of goals and an assist in the past four games, there is some decent value here even with a lack of power-play time.

Update: Street is not on the top line for the Ducks on Tuesday. Ryan Getzlaf will skate with Nick Ritchie and Rickard Rakell.

Expensive Defensemen

John Klingberg DAL vs LA (6400 FD, 6100 DK) – A hefty price tag, but a great home matchup, a top power-play spot, and a great offensive game makes Klingberg the top overall defenseman on Tuesday's slate.

Duncan Keith CHI vs ANH (5400 FD, 5200 DK) – DraftKings has made the correct pricing adjustment, but the price is at a decent point. Keith has yet to score a goal this season, but with five assists, 19 shots on goal and more than 24 minutes of ice time in eight games this year, along with a return to the top power-play unit Tuesday, he's a solid option.

Zach Werenski CLS vs ARI (5500 FD, 5800 DK) – Werenski has two goals and two assists in the past four games and he maintains his top power-play spot even with Seth Jones returning from injury; I prefer Jones when he is healthy and on the top power-play unit, but Werenski will still make the better fantasy play for next game or two while Jones works his way back into the lineup.

Value Defensemen

Neal Pionk NYR vs FLA (3900 FD, 4600 DK) – With four assists in the past two games, 23-year old Pionk has turned into a bright spot on a bad Rangers team. With a great matchup at home against Florida, more than 23 minutes ATOI, and 11 shots on goal over the past three games, Pionk looks to be the premier value play on the board Tuesday.

Miro Heiskanen DAL vs LA (3700 FD, 3600 DK) – If you are looking for a cap-saving alternative to Klingberg with your Dallas stacks, Heiskanen is your option. With over 20 minutes of ATOI, over two shots per game, second unit power-play time and a pair of assists, there are few better cheap options on the blue line Tuesday.

Aaron Ekblad FLA at NYR (4700 FD, 3800 DK) – This is a DraftKings play only, while his stats look horrible on paper, Ekblad is still a former No. 1 overall pick in his fifth year at age-22. Behind the numbers, Ekblad is averaging 2.3 shots per game, nearly identical to last season, and he is still drawing power-play time – I think you could find a nice low percentage gem with at least an assist and three-plus shots.

Goalies

One mistake I made when I first started playing DFS Hockey was overvaluing wins for goalies. The stat you want to focus on is saves. Wins and losses are much harder to predict than you may think, and while I do not completely ignore the factor of wins, I think many players over-rate it when they choose their goalie. I do not suggest starting a bad goalie facing a team like Toronto or Tampa Bay in order to accumulate saves, because goals allowed are important to avoid as well.

Sergei Bobrovsky CLS vs ARI (8900 FD, 8400 DK) – This is surely not a cap-saving option, but I do not see a whole lot of solid cheap goalie choices Tuesday. Arizona is taking the third most shots on goal per game (36.3) but is dead last in goals per game (1.43, Los Angeles is second-worst at 1.88). Bobrovsky has struggled this year (3.84 GAA, .876 SV%), but the horrible eight-goal outing at Tampa Bay is skewing those numbers a bit this early in the season, I'm willing to give him a shot in a great home matchup Tuesday.

Ben Bishop DAL vs LA (8700 FD, 8200 DK) – The Kings have perhaps the worst offense in the league so far this year (1.88 Goals/Game, 27.3 Shots/Game), so the potential for a big save total is not likely for Bishop, but there is a good chance at a just one or two goals allowed and a victory for Bishop, making him an ideal cash-game option Tuesday, with big GPP upside if he can record a shutout.

Juuse Saros NSH vs SJ (8100 FD, 8000 DK) – With Pekka Rinne on Injured Reserve, Juuse Saros has taken over as the top netminder for the Predators and should be in goal Tuesday versus San Jose. The Sharks have the second most shots per game (38.9) but are middle of the road in goals per game (3.25) and that figure includes and early season eight-goal game at the Rangers. Nashville has a defense that can slow down San Jose, making Saros a good option to have a high save total, but he also has the potential to keep the goal count down while recording a victory.

David Rittich CGY at MON (7400 FD, 7500 DK) – This is a GPP and cap-saving play as Montreal has been surprisingly good offensively, (3.29 Goals/Game, 32.9 Shots/Game, 247 OR), but Rittich has been very strong in his limited chances this year (1.30 GAA, .962 SV%, two wins in two starts). Calgary has been an offensive power (3.75 Goals/Game, 268 OR), giving Rittich a good chance at a big score if he can limit Montreal to three goals or less and record a victory.