Thursday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

My rankings are determined by a Corsi-based Rating System that I created, the average Rating is about 49 per game. Like Corsi, this represents the total number of shot attempts per game either for or against, but it's also adjusted for shooting percentage and save percentage. Any shot attempt counts, whether it is on goal, off target or blocked, which is why the average hovers around 49, rather than the league average shots on goal (31.4). With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 56.7 (TOR) to a worst of 45.1 (NYR), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 44.3 (NSH) to a worst of 58.4 (OTT) -- Ottawa is so bad, the next worst team is 51.8 (NYR). These numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. I am hoping these values clearly show how good or bad a team ranks by equating it to shot attempts per game.

Slate Preview: Thursday, December 20, 2018

The Main Slate on Thursday features 12 games. Both Pittsburgh (back home from Washington) and Montreal (from Colorado to Arizona) will be traveling on a back-to-back.

The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write-ups with too many Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Also shown are my projected Shots on Goal, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Starting Goalies are listed with either a Projected or Confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

*All stats are projected figures based on my ranking formulas, using 2017-18 and current year statistics.

Expensive Line Stacks

(The number next to the player name is the power-play line they are slated to skate with, if a 0 is shown, that means they are not on either power-play line.)

DAL1 vs. CHI: Tyler Seguin-1 ($7,900 FD, $7,500 DK), Jamie Benn-2 ($7,400 FD, $6,600 DK), Alexander Radulov-1 ($6,200 FD, $6,800 DK) - Dallas has continued to play low-scoring defensive affairs at home, but I think there is some breakout potential Thursday against a Chicago team that ranks towards the bottom of every defensive metric there is (27th in DR, 30th in GA/Gm, 28th in SA/Gm, 30th in HDCF (High Danger Chances For), 31st in PP GA/60). Dallas had toyed around with using Denis Gurianov on the top line, but that did not last long as they put Radulov back up top with Seguin and Benn early in their game Tuesday and it resulted in a quick goal from the trio. The return of elite defenseman John Klingberg should help fuel DAL1 in this game as well.

CLS1 vs. NJ: Cam Atkinson-1 ($7,200 FD, $7,600 DK), Artemi Panarin-1 ($7,700 FD, $6,600 DK), Pierre-Luc Dubois-1 ($5,700 FD, $5,900 DK) - New Jersey is simply a mess, having lost 10 of their last 12 while allowing 55 goals (4.6 per game) over that stretch -- they are not playing good defense (50.6 DR) and the goaltenders have not bailed out the defense at all (.891 team save percentage); MacKenzie Blackwood will be making his first NHL start after allowing two goals on 10 shots on Tuesday against Toronto (2.69 GAA, .911 SV% in the AHL this year). Atkinson (three goals, five assists in eight games) and Panarin (two goals, five assists in seven games) have both chipped in a point-per-night in December; however Dubois has struggled a bit in December with only a goal and two assists in eight games, but I do not think you should cut him from this stack as the matchup is too good.

SJ1 vs. WPG: Logan Couture-1 ($7,400 FD, $6,200 DK), Timo Meier-2 ($6,200 FD, $6,800 DK), Tomas Hertl-1 ($5,400 FD, $5,400 DK) - SJ1 has been a monster in December with 14 goals and 16 assists in 25 combined games played, the knock on them Thursday is they are the weakest of the San Jose forward lines defensively, so they could lose some ice time if the Sharks attempt to get overly defensive in the matchup against Winnipeg. The Sharks produce 11.0 HDCF per game while Winnipeg allows a near league average 9.3 per game so San Jose should be able to control the tempo at home and produce some good scoring chances.

BOS1 vs. ANH: David Pastrnak-1 ($7,900 FD, $7,800 DK), Brad Marchand-1 ($8,100 FD, $6,900 DK), David Krejci-2 ($5,800 FD, $5,200 DK) - I am not a big fan of using lines against the Ducks on nights when John Gibson is likely to start because I think he is the best goalie in the NHL right now, but Anaheim allows the second most shots against and a league-high 11.3 HDC per game, so when an elite line is facing the Ducks, sometimes you just have to dive in. BOS1 went through a rough patch after the loss of Patrice Bergeron to an upper-body injury, but the promotion of Krejci to center the top line with Pastrnak and Marchand resulted in a combined 10 goals and 22 assists in nine December games. If you are looking to play this line in cash games, go with the site discounts and use Krejci/Pastrnak in FanDuel with Krejci/Marchand at DraftKings.

Also in play: TOR1 vs FLA, FLA1 at TOR, STL1 at VAN, VGK1 vs NYI, PIT1/2 vs MIN

VALUE LINE STACKS

CAR1 vs. DET: Sebastian Aho-1 ($6,100 FD, $5,700 DK), Teuvo Teravainen-1 ($5,200 FD, $5,100 DK), Jordan Martinook-0 ($3,500 FD, $4,400 DK) - Detroit is allowing the third-most High Danger Chances on the slate Thursday (10.6 per game) and Carolina has be tops in the league all season, currently sitting at a rate of 13.3 HDC per game, so although Carolina is a poor shooting team (6.9% shooting projected) this combination screams out as a good spot for Carolina. Aho has been on fire of late with five goals and three assists in his past five games, while Teravainen has tagged along with a goal and six assists. Martinook (one goal, zero assists over past five games) offers some cap savings, but he also provides a spot that can be cut in order to mix up your roster a bit.

VAN2 vs. STL: Brock Boeser-1 ($6,600 FD, $6,400 DK), Elias Pettersson-1 ($6,200 FD, $6,300 DK), Josh Leivo-2 ($3,500 FD, $3,200 DK) - St. Louis has been as "Up-and-Down" as you can be with six wins and six losses over their past 12 games, while allowing 11 goals in the wins (1.83/game) and 34 goals in the losses (5.67/game). They are coming off an impressive win at Edmonton on Tuesday, so I'm going to bet against them Thursday looking for a letdown in Vancouver. The Pettersson/Boeser duo has been great in December with 10 goals and 13 assists in nine games, Leivo has chipped in three goals and an assist in eight games. There is some danger they will draw a decent amount of ice time against Ryan O'Reilly STL2 line (46.9 DR), but I'll take my chances that Vancouver schemes them more against St. Louis' other lines.

MON1 at ARI: Max Domi-1 ($6,300 FD, $5,500 DK), Jonathan Drouin-1 ($5,900 FD, $5,600 DK), Andrew Shaw-2 ($4,000 FD, $5,100 DK) - Montreal has been quiet the last two games with only a single goal to show for their efforts, but even though they are coming off a back-to-back I think there is some potential here as Arizona is struggling defensively having allowed three or more goals in seven straight games. Drouin was able to get an assist on the lone goal Wednesday, and the line has produced seven goals and 16 assists over the past 10 games.

Also in play: TOR2 vs FLA, MIN2 at PIT, STL2 at VAN, DET 1 at CAR

Solo Forward Options

Auston Matthews-1 TOR2 vs. FLA ($8,300 FD, $8,200 DK) - On the short list when discussing the best players in the league, Matthews has five goals and five assists in eight December games; with a high-tempo game at home against Florida on Thursday, sign me up.

Brendan Gallagher-1 MON2 at ARI ($6,000 FD, $5,300 DK) - Much like MON1, Gallagher is in a great spot tonight in Arizona. Gallagher scored the lone goal Wednesday night in Colorado and has four goals and 42 shots in 10 December games.

Jaden Schwartz-1 STL1 at VAN ($5,600 FD, $5,200 DK) - Schwartz missed a few games with an injury, but has come back with a vengeance and scored a goal and tallied four assists in the last four games. A spot on the top power-play unit and exposure to star forwards Vladimir Tarasenko and Brayden Schenn in a good matchup against Vancouver puts Schwartz in a good spot Thursday.

Bo Horvat-1 VAN1 vs. STL ($5,600 FD, $5,100 DK) - The third of the Vancouver Big 3, Horvat has scored five goals with three assists in nine December games and leads the Canucks in shots on goal during the month with 26.

Bryan Rust-0 PIT1 vs. MIN ($4,700 FD, $4,500 DK) - One of the hottest players in the league with six goals and an assist over his past five games, plus a recent promotion back onto the Sidney Crosby line offers some great exposure to Crosby at a bargain price.

Andrei Svechnikov-1 CAR2 vs. DET ($3,900 FD, $4,700 DK)- He has the same matchups as the CAR1 line and a spot on the top power play, I would consider sliding him in with your CAR1 stacks in place of Jordan Martinook.

Defensemen
(Due to extreme pricing differentials between the sites, a single list will be provided for Defensemen moving forward)

Erik Karlsson-1&2 SJ vs. WPG ($7,300 FD, $6,100 DK) - Karlsson is currently slated to skate on both power play units, this provides a lot of chances at high danger scoring chances on the man-advantage; with eight assists and 48 shots in his last nine games Karlsson is poised to pounce on those chances. Karlsson also provides the Sharks' best defensive option (44.6 DR) in a game where Winnipeg has numerous offensive weapons, look for Karlsson to push 30 minutes of ice time Thursday.

Seth Jones-1 CLS vs. NJ ($5,700 FD, $6,400 DK) - Jones has been hot in the month of December with three goals and five assists in eight games, couple that with 26 shots and 15 blocked shots and you've got one of the elite fantasy defenders in the league Thursday.

Jeff Petry-1 MON at ARI ($4,600 FD, $5,100 DK) - Petry is leading the Canadiens in scoring in December with five goals and four assists in 10 games. He has been put back on the top power-play unit and draws a favorable matchup against a struggling Arizona defense that is allowing 10.2 HDC per game.

Jake Gardiner-2 TOR vs. FLA ($4,900 FD, $4,500 DK) - Gardiner is not just leading Toronto defensemen in scoring in December, he is leading the entire team with 11 points (a goal and 10 assists in eight games), I think the improved play of Tyler Ennis and the return of William Nylander has boosted the play of the secondary units where Gardiner sees a majority of his ice time. I prefer his price on DraftKings where many of the other defensemen come at a premium, but he is in play on FanDuel as well.

Colton Parayko-1 STL at VAN ($4,100 FD, $4,800 DK) - Parayko is a great value play on FanDuel, with a top power-play unit spot, plus he has three goals in eight December games.

Ben Hutton-2 VAN vs. STL ($3,800 FD, $3,800 DK) - Alexander Edler is the top blueliner for the Canucks, but for the price I think Hutton provides more value. Eight blocked shots and 11 shots on goal over his past five games offer a nice floor, plus he has added on four assists over his past six games.

Also in play: Brent Burns-1 SJ vs. WPG ($6,900 FD, $6,500 DK), Alexander Edler-1 VAN vs. STL ($4,500 FD, $5,200 DK), Jared Spurgeon-1 MIN at PIT ($4,700 FD, $4,900 DK), Markus Nutivaara-0 CLS vs. NJ ($3,500 FD, $3,200 DK)

Goalies
As always, make sure your goalie is starting, these articles are posted well before many teams announce their starter for the evening.

Ben Bishop DAL vs. CHI ($8,700 FD, $7,900 DK) - As mentioned before, Dallas has been playing great defense at home (nine goals allowed in last six home games); Chicago offers a nice mix of volume (31.4 shots per game) and poor quality (8.8% shooting) that should provide Bishop with a high quantity of saves while keeping the goals allowed to a minimum.

Frederik Andersen TOR vs. FLA ($9,300 FD, $8,400 DK) - There are people who think Andersen isn't a great goalie, but in my opinion, I think he might be the second most talented goaltender in the NHL right now behind John Gibson. Florida has turned it around in their past two games winning on the road in Buffalo and beating Toronto in South Florida, but Toronto is a different team at home winning six of their last seven while scoring 32 goals (4.57 per game) while allowing only 14 goals. Andersen is likely to allow a few goals in this game, but Florida shot volume will more than make up for those negatives if Toronto gets the victory.

Jaroslav Halak BOS vs. ANH ($8,400 FD, $7,900 DK) - Halak recorded a shutout in Montreal in his last start and will be returning home for his first start since beating Toronto 6-3 on December 8th. Anaheim has improved their offense with the emergence of the Getzlaf/Kase/Aberg line, but Boston has an elite shutdown defensive group in BOS1 that should be able to wrangle ANH1 and allow Halak to chase another shutout.

Petr Mrazek CAR vs. DET ($7,400 FD, $7,500 DK) - I am not a Mrazek fan, but he has played fairly well of late with a 2.24 GAA and .924 SV% in December -- these numbers look even better if you split out his opponents -- against the Kings (on the road), at the Ducks, and home versus the Coyotes he has a 0.68 GAA and .974 SV%, with a 4.60 GAA and .868 SV% against Toronto and at Montreal -- I think a home game against Detroit trends more towards that first group of games. On top of all that, as a former Red Wing, we have a nice revenge narrative game for Mrazek.

Also in play: Sergei Bobrovsky CLS vs. NJ ($8,500 FD, $8,200 DK)

GPP Punts: Carter Hart PHI vs. NSH ($7,400 FD, $7,100 DK) – Nashville is still a mess with injuries.