Thursday NHL DFS Breakdown: Line Stacks & Strategy

I've made another small change to the magnitude of my Rating System, which has an average 49.0 Rating per game. The total represents the number of shot attempts per game either for or against, like Corsi, but it's also adjusted for Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. With the current rosters I have loaded, the Offense Rating (OR) range is a best of 56.8 (CAR) to a worst of 44.2 (ANH), and the Defense Rating (DR) range is a best of 44.1 (CAR) to a worst of 55.4 (OTT) – these numbers will change daily with line changes, injuries and player call-ups. I am hoping these values clearly show how good or bad a team ranks by equating it to shot attempts per game, whether those are on goal, off target, or blocked shots – they are still offensive chances for or against.

Slate Preview: Thursday, November 8, 2018

There are nine games on the Main Slate for Thursday. The following chart will be included so I do not have to bog down the write ups with too many Offensive and Defensive Ratings. Also shown are my projected Shots on Goal, Shooting Percentage and Save Percentage. Starting Goalies are listed with either a Projected or Confirmed tag at the time of publication – this will be updated later in the day.

Expensive Line Stacks

(The number next to the player name is the power-play line they are slated to skate with, if a 0 is shown, that means the player is not on either power-play unit.)

BOS1 vs. VAN: Patrice Bergeron-1 ($8,300 FD, $7,600 DK), David Pastrnak-1 ($8,300 FD, $7,500 DK), Brad Marchand-1 ($7,700 FD, $6,300 DK) - BOS1 went through a cold patch two weeks ago but has started to heat up again with five goals and four assists over the past three games. Vancouver goalie Jacob Marsktrom has struggled on the road (3.38 GAA, .895 SV%) and overall has allowed five or more goals in four out of 10 games this year. With Vancouver allowing a lot of shots on goal (50.2 DR), this matchup looks very good for BOS1 to have a big night.

FLA1 vs. EDM: Aleksander Barkov-1 ($7,100 FD, $6,500 DK), Evgenii Dadonov-1 ($6,700 FD, $6,900 DK), Mike Hoffman-2 ($5,500 FD, $5,700 DK) - It looks like Florida went to this line grouping in the middle of their last game, and while Mike Hoffman scored a goal, it came on the power play. The intrigue with this line comes with the fact that the elite defense of Aleksander Barkov (42.7 DR) will be tasked with shutting down Connor McDavid, so FLA1 should be on the ice a ton Thursday night. Hoffman has been moved around a bit, but he has been up to the task with his new team and is currently on a nine-game point streak.

DAL1 vs. SJ: Jamie Benn-1 ($7,800 FD, $6,100 DK), Tyler Seguin-1 ($7,500 FD, $6,800 DK), Valeri Nichushkin-2 ($3,500 FD, $3,700 DK) - Tyler Seguin was reunited with Jamie Benn on this line in their previous game at Columbus (4-1 defeat), and while Seguin did not record a point, Benn scored a goal, so the line did produce the team's only goal. San Jose has struggled mightily with goaltending, with starter Martin Jones currently have a sub-.900 SV%; and the Sharks opted not to use Aaron Dell (.913 SV%) in goal Thursday. I have no issues using DAL1 at home against the Sharks, who have allowed three or more goals in seven straight games.

The Stars have changed their lines for Thursday night, splitting up Seguin and Benn, and erasing my interest in their top line as a result.

PHI1 vs. ARI: Claude Giroux-1 ($7,400 FD, $6,800 DK), Sean Couturier-1 ($6,100 FD, $6,600 DK), Travis Konecny-1 ($4,800 FD, $4,700 DK) - Philadelphia played in Arizona on Monday and came away with a 5-2 victory, led by the strong performance from PHI1 (two goals from Claude Giroux, one from Sean Couturier). The best thing about this line is they are not only the best defensive unit on the Flyers, they are among the best in the league, so they draw extra ice time against opponents' top lines. Due to an injury to Antti Raanta, Arizona will likely need to return to Darcy Kuemper in goal, and while he has been strong this year, he allowed four goals in the loss on Monday.

Also in play: TB1 & 2 vs NYI (Tampa Bay 1 & 2 are always in play, writing them up is a waste of all of our time).

VALUE LINE STACKS

MON1 vs. BUF: Brendan Gallagher-1 ($6,800 FD, $6,700 DK), Tomas Tatar-1 ($5,200 FD, $6,200 DK), Phillip Danault-0 ($4,800 FD, $4,600 DK) - Buffalo has been solid defensively (46.7 DR), but they have lost three in a row on the road while allowing 12 goals. The Gallagher/Tatar combo has been one of the better value pairings in fantasy hockey this year (14 goals, 11 assists in 15 games combined), and while Phillip Danault is a good candidate to cut from the stack in order to play a solo center, he does have a goal and seven assists so far this year as well.

VGK2 at OTT: Max Pacioretty-1 ($5,600 FD, $4,400 DK), Alex Tuch-1 ($4,800 FD, $5,600 DK), Cody Eakin-2 ($4,300 FD, $4,200 DK) - Losing Erik Haula to injury does not help this line, but Tuch is what has been making them click, so I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt for the time being. Cody Eakin scored the only Knights goal Tuesday in Toronto, and Pacioretty has shaken off the rust following his return from injury. Couple that with a great matchup against the defensively challenged Senators (league worst 55.4 DR), and I think this line offers some sneaky upside Thursday night.

OTT1 vs. VGK: Mark Stone-1 ($6,400 FD, $6,200 DK), Matt Duchene-1 ($6,000 FD, $5,700 DK), Ryan Dzingel-2 ($5,200 FD, $5,500 DK) – OTT1 was in my "Also in Play" section on Tuesday, I hope you used them. Lightning doesn't often strike twice, but this line is very talented and proved so Tuesday with one of the biggest games of the year so far (three goals, seven assists), they were almost a requirement to cash deep in GPP tournaments. Vegas is among the best defensive teams in the league, but they have lost six of seven on the road. A repeat performance by OTT1 is extremely unlikely, but we don't need a repeat to provide value; in fact, because of their outburst and the matchup, many people will fade them because of "regression to the mean" causing their ownership to be lower than it probably should be.

Also in play: CHI1 vs CAR, MON2 vs BUF

Solo Forward Options

Patrick Kane-1 CHI2 vs. CAR ($8,500 FD, $7,400 DK) – Kane offers one of the highest floors in the league due to his shot totals, and while Carolina on paper is good defensively (league best 44.1 DR), their poor goaltending makes that figure irrelevant.

Jeff Carter-1 LA2 vs. MIN ($6,300 FD, $5,300 DK) – Carter has been on a tear lately, with five points over his past three games. The line shift pairing him with Ilya Kovalchuk lit a fire under Carter, as he has been the lone bright spot in a sputtering Kings offense.

Ty Rattie-2 EDM1 at FLA ($3,700 FD, $4,700 DK) – I like Roberto Luongo on Thursday (see below), but if you want some exposure to Connor McDavid, Rattie looks like a good cheap option, especially with a promotion to the second power play unit.

Frank Vatrano-2 FLA2 vs. EDM ($3,200 FD, $3,900 DK) – FLA2 is an option tonight, but for some cheap exposure to the Trocheck/Huberdeau pairing, consider Vatrano now that he's moved into a top-six forward spot. He had been a darling in my projections for a while, but the minutes and power-play time weren't always there.

Colin White-1 OTT3 vs. VGK ($3,200 FD, $3,800 DK) – Another guy at the top of my value formula nightly, he scored twice Tuesday, so we may be chasing stats a little here, but with a top power-play spot he does not need to do much to earn his price tag. Being on that top power play also allows you to do some creative stuff with OTT1 if you want to use White instead of Ryan Dzingel or a defenseman in your stacks.

Jake DeBrusk-1 BOS2 vs. VAN ($4,300 FD, $4,000 DK) – Initially, DeBrusk wasn't on the top power-play unit (the original version of this piece mentioned Andres Bjork), but he's slated for that duty leading into Thursday's game after all. DeBrusk is the better even-strength value of the two players anyway, and since Bjork isn't on the top power-play unit, he can be ignored.

Defensemen

(Due to extreme pricing differentials between the sites, a single list will be provided for defensemen moving forward)

Shayne Gostisbehere-1 PHI vs. ARI ($5,800 FD, $5,900 DK) – Gostisbehere is have a terrible year so far with only seven points and a -7 plus-minus (career worst paces through 15 games), but his goal and assist Tuesday against Arizona should offer some hope, especially since he has the same opponent Thursday. At age 25 he is likely not even to his prime yet, so elite numbers are there to be had. Get him while his price is depressed.

Thomas Chabot-1 OTT vs. VGK ($4,700 FD, $6,500 DK) – I'm not sure what Chabot needs to
do in order to get a bigger bump in salary from FanDuel, he's only been the best defenseman in fantasy hockey this year after replacing the void left by Erik Karlsson. Again, this is not an elite matchup against Vegas, but Vegas is a much different team when they are away from The Strip, so this is a FanDuel-only play thanks to the low salary.

Ryan McDonagh-1 TB vs. NYI ($5,200 FD, $5,900 DK) – There is a chance Victor Hedman returns Thursday, but it is more likely he is held out until Saturday; that being the case, this will be your final chance to get in on McDonagh in his increased role. Pair him with either Tampa line stack.

Jeff Petry-1 MON vs. BUF ($4,400 FD, $5,600 DK) – FanDuel has a strange formula for determining defenseman salaries, and there continues to be good values up and down their list nightly; Petry provides big assist potential (11 in 15 games) to incorporate in your Montreal stacks.

Miro Heiskanen-2 DAL vs. SJ ($3,900 FD, $4,400 DK) - John Klingberg ($6,500 FD, $6,200 DK) is certainly an option to pair with DAL1 stacks, but for the price, the Finnish rookie has been a better value lately with a goal, two assists and 10 shots in the past five games.

Erik Gustafsson-2 CHI vs. CAR ($3,800 FD, $4,100 DK) – This is an interesting dart throw Thursday, he only has a single assist in the past five games, but Gustafsson puts the puck on net fairly well for a cheap option (1.8 shots per game), plus he blocks 1.6 shots per game, and Carolina offers lots of opportunities to block shots. With his power-play time, offensive potential, and shot-blocking ability, I think he offers some nice upside.

Goalies

As always, make sure your goalie is starting, these articles are posted well before many teams announce their starter for the evening.

Corey Crawford CHI vs. CAR ($8,000 FD, $8,300 DK) – Note: until further notice the top goalie in my article will be whoever is facing Carolina. The Hurricanes defy all logical statistics, it's almost as if they are trying to shoot as much as possible without actually scoring a goal. Crawford has not been great this year (2.92 GAA, .907 SV%), but his splits are great at home (1.70 GAA, .932 SV%), and I think there's a good chance at a huge save total here along with a victory.

Jaroslav Halak BOS vs. VAN ($8,200 FD, $8,200 DK) – The biggest concern is the lack of shots from Vancouver, but with two elite defensive lines playing in front of Halak, even Elias Pettersson doesn't scare me a whole lot Thursday. I was big on Jimmy Howard on Tuesday, and he put together a 40-save win against the Canucks (3-2 in a shootout); I expect Halak to have fewer saves, but two goals seems like the ceiling for Vancouver, so as long as Boston can score three or more, the win is a good bet as well.

Roberto Luongo FLA vs. EDM ($7,700 FD, $7,300 DK) – Luongo won his first start back from injury, with a 32-save, two goals allowed (.957 SV%) performance against Winnipeg in Finland. There is a chance at a European hangover after the travel back from Finland, but their previous game was six days ago, so I'm betting on Florida being adjusted properly. Edmonton is never a cakewalk opponent, but Luongo has proven time and again that he is one of the most skilled netminders in the league, he just has had some bad offensive support around him in many seasons – among goalies with more than 15 starts, Luongo was the top scorer in 2017-18 when you discount the points for wins.

Also in play: Andrei Vasilevskiy TB vs. NYI ($9,400 FD, $8,400 DK)